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Why Rising Gas Prices Could End the Republican Majority

By raising gas prices for an unpopular war Trump has undermined his last remaining political asset.

Dan Pfeiffer

Mar 17

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In the Spring of 2012, Barack Obama gathered his political team for a meeting on the state of the reelection campaign. Arrayed around the table in the Roosevelt Room were the senior campaign staff, the pollster, and his top White House advisors. During the meeting, the President received updates on polling, fundraising, and the field organization in the battleground states. The media team previewed ads going on the air.

All of the updates were positive and everyone, including the President, was feeling pretty upbeat.

And then David Plouffe, the White House Senior Advisor and mastermind of the 2008 campaign, spoke up.

“Gas prices are an existential threat to the entire enterprise. If they keep going up, we will lose reelection.”

The direness of Plouffe’s warning caught everyone’s attention. Plouffe was known for keeping calm under the most intense pressure and never panicking.

Gas prices, of course, came down and Obama won reelection — but Plouffe’s concern highlighted an important truth: high gas prices are a political killing field for incumbents.

If high gas prices were bad for Obama in 2012, they are exponentially worse for Trump in 2026.

Here’s why:...