Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 634

NO. 634   FREE EDITION   SUNDAY 15 MAR 2026
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My work

How will OpenAI compete?

OpenAI has some big questions. It doesn't have unique tech. It has a big user base, but with limited engagement and stickiness and no network effect. The incumbents have matched the tech and are leveraging their product and distribution. And a lot of the value and leverage will come from new experiences that haven't been invented yet, and it can't invent all of those itself. What's the plan? LINK

AI eats the world

Twice a year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. The latest edition: 'AI eats the world'. LINK

News

🦞 OpenClaw

I wrote about OpenClaw a few weeks ago, when it was the craze of the week. Since then, OpenAI bought out the founder, and it turned into a consumer craze, apparently, in China. This week, China's cybersecurity agency issued a warning that it's totally insecure (undisputed), and Meta picked up Moltbook, a chatroom used by OpenClaw agents to talk to each other (maybe) and for people to troll each other pretending to be OpenClaw agents (probably). 

A cynic would call this the new Clubhouse, and when I wrote about this a few weeks ago, I talked about the pent-up demand to build AI stuff on your own computer with your own hands instead of relying entirely on cloud APIs from big labs, and of course, the desire to  build the kind of autonomous assistants that big consumer companies can't ship because they're so unpredictable (ask it to tidy your inbox and it might tidy your inbox by deleting all your email). But another comparison might be desktop Linux. Engineers always love building their own systems, and they always said that with 'just a little more work' Linux would be ready for consumers - 25 years later, we're still waiting (no, not Android), but the web runs on Linux. CHINAMOLTBOOK

Meta cutting deep? 

Reuters claims that Meta is looking at cutting 20% of headcount. This would be partly for cashflow to invest in AI infrastructure (it plans to spend over 50% of revenue on capex this year and has already been out raising capital), but probably also a reset versus previous hiring (and perhaps more pruning of the Reality Labs stuff). This has already been really messy, though: Meta ended 2019 with 45k employees, hired 27k across 2021 and 2022, did an 11k layoff in 2023 but still ended the year up by net 15k, cut another 20k in 2023, added 12k back by the end of 2025 bringing it to 79k, and if it now cuts 20% (~16k) that would bring it back to mid-2020 numbers. It would also mean that Meta had laid off more people since 2019 than the company actually employed then. Everyone over-hired in the pandemic, but this seems careless. LINK

After LLMs? 

Yann LeCun has raised $1bn at a $3.5bn valuation to build 'world' models, which he has argued are the next step after LLMs, since he thinks LLMs won't keep scaling and in particular won't get to structural understanding of cause and effect. Fei Fei li, another pioneer of machine learning, also raised $1bn to build world models in February (no public valuation but apparently $5bn). LINK

Copilot Cowork

Microsoft will integrate Anthropic's Claude Cowork into its 'Copilot' product/brand/distribution channel. Depending on your point of view, this shows either the strength for Microsoft's arms-length relationship with OpenAI, leaving it free to pick and choose the best tech to resell, distribute, and integrate - or that Microsoft is a product-taker and strategy-taker beholden to other people's roadmaps. But the risk is that Copilot becomes the new IBM 'Watson' - a meaningless brand name mostly associated with annoying additional fees other than specifically useful tools. LINK

Google Maps gets AI

Google continues productising AI by adding Gemini to maps. This lets it synthesise data that's probably already there but hard to find (My phone is dying — where can I charge it without having to wait in a long line for coffee?) while also enabling better use-cases (plot this route but also find a good place to stop for food and petrol). This is all valuable but also pretty obvious (and hard for Apple) - see this week's column. (Meanwhile, this is a painful contrast with Microsoft, which doesn't have maps, or AI.) LINK

Grammarly flounders?

On the other hand, this was a bizarre story - Grammarly, which clearly faces an existential challenge from LLMs, launched a new writing tool that claims it would make editing suggestions 'in the voice of' various named, living journalists and writers - without asking or even telling them. It's one thing to train a model on everyone's work, but quite another to sell a product on people's names. LINK

Hacking McKinsey? 

Someone claimed to have hacked McKinsey's internal LLM-based knowledge-sharing system, getting access to a complete database of Teams chats, spreadsheets, and PowerPoints of client work. It's not clear to me how real this is, but it points to a much broader issue:  if you want to use AI to find, analyse, and synthesise information across your company, then your traditional tools to compartmentalise and rate-limit access to data don't apply, and you'll need new ones. LINK

Trump's TikTok fee

The investors who bought TikTok from Bytedance in a forced sale will pay around $10bn as a commission to the US government. Really? LINK

xAI wobbles

After a couple more departures, only two of the original 13 co-founders of Elon Musk's xAI model lab remain, and he said he's rebuilding it 'from the ground up' (after selling to SpaceX shareholders). Setting aside the personalities, the challenges for xAI have always been why it was different. LINK

Travis is back?

In the nine years since he was kicked out of Uber, Travis Kalanick has been busy, but quiet, mostly working on cloud kitchens, but now he's decided to make a PR splash, launching a new company name (Atoms) and an expansion to mining and robotic transport. 

This is a funny one. The launch site opens with how terrible it was that an unnamed and shadowy 'investor' (which everyone knows was Bill Gurley at Benchmark) exploited the death of his mother to take his company away, but there's no acknowledgement of the escalating issues that led or at least enabled Gurley to push him out. He may just not believe it - some of his associates from then certainly think it was nonsense, and 'Uber Derangement Syndrome' was real, but some of the stories were true, too. Either way, he's an extremely capable and aggressive entrepreneur with a grudge, and grudges can be powerful, but also distracting. (NB: I worked at Andreessen Horowitz, an investor in Lyft, when Kalanick ran Uber; Andreessen Horowitz's founders have their own long-standing public grudge against Bill Gurley). LINK, COMMENT

About

What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 25 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst, and I speak and consult on strategy and technology for companies around the world.

Ideas

The jagged frontier of AI: analysing how BCG consultants use AI, and how they manage the inconsistencies of its capabilities. LINK

Marr Mullenweg reports a new phishing attack. Be careful. LINK

Silicon Valley built a lot of data centres in the Persian Gulf, and in the last few years has pushed hard to get oil money to invest in AI infrastructure. Now that infrastructure is targets for Iranian drones. LINK

Bloomberg went through the filings and reported that Oracle, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta have over $700bn of total future lease obligations (leases signed but not yet in use and hence not on the balance sheet). $260bn of that is Oracle. LINK

Marketers are all trying to work out how to get chatbots to recommend their brands, and one tactic is to try a lot harder to get your customers to write reviews. LINK

Interviewing Liz Reid, the head of Google search, on AI, Gemini and ChatGPT. LINK

Steven Sinofsky, who produced Windows 8 and the Surface when at Microsoft, looks back on that project and compares it to the Mac Neo - were they wrong, or early, or something else? There's a famous quote from the aircraft industry that "all modern aircraft have four dimensions: span, length, height and politics" and software ecosystems are the same. LINK

There's a flourishing new field paying professionals to train AI systems by making lots of examples of documents that are the atom units of their work. I am pretty sceptical that this will work - as I wrote last week, you run the risk of trying to reduce a complex profession to a rules-based system, and when AI researchers tried to build rules-based systems they always failed. LINK

People love to show the chart that says ATMs didn't kill retail banking jobs, but don't run it through to the present day: those jobs grew with ATMS but then collapsed with smartphones. LINK

A profile of the funders of Kashli and Polymarket, the two companies driving the prediction markets boom. Apparently they hate each other, though judging by the photo they seem to be sharing the same barber, and indeed the same suit. LINK

Outside interests

How the German air force in WW2 used a carefully graduated system of medals to drive pilots to more and more combat victories (and/or earlier death). LINK

1920s Turkish government infographics. Very good. LINK

Russia turns off the internet and mobile networks in Moscow for security reasons so often that there's been a surge in sales of paper maps. LINK

Prada has followed LVMH in turning the scaffolding that wraps its Manhattan building into a giant temporary brand statement.  I find this whole field fascinating, not least in the contrast to AI - what can't be automated, and how can you scale and mass-merchandise exclusivity? LINK

Data

An NBER analysis of US city rules that apply minimum wage rules to 'gig economy' workers finds that these rules result in lower income. LINK

Bloomberg says that a quarter of iPhone final assembly now happens in India. LINK

Spotify's latest music data report. LINK

The Press Gazette says 59 English language publications now have over 100k online subscribers. LINK

Pew on US attitudes to AI and data centres - mostly concerned and pessimistic (this is becoming an issue in getting local construction permission). LINK

Some data on AI citations. LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

AI unbundling

My column last week talked about my frustration with people who think you can put a numeric score, job by job and profession by profession, on something called AI exposure. I think this is a fundamentally useless exercise. I also often show a slide giving examples of acronyms, companies, concepts and ideas that were hot on the internet in the late 1990s, or mobile, in the 2000s, pointing out that we really didn't know how any of this was going to work, and so we should presume that a bunch of the stuff we're excited about now won't work either. As Yogi Berra pointed out, prediction is hard, especially about the future.

That said, we do want to know what's going to happen, and there are questions we can ask that might at least tell us where to look. One question that I've been kicking around is to compare the unbundling of physical assets that the internet brought with the unbundling that comes with AI. 

There was a whole class of company and industry that used some kind of physical asset to deliver their product when the physical asset itself was not the actual product. The music industry made little pieces of plastic and newspapers were light manufacturing and trucking companies because they had to be, but that wasn't the product, and the internet broke that apart. You could be on either side of that split - if your retailer's business was to be an efficient end-point to a logistics system, Amazon killed you, but if your business was about experience, curation and service, then the internet might not be a big deal. 

So, what do LLMs break apart? One way to think about the 'SaaS apocalypse' is that you're splitting 'writing the code' apart from everything else. On one side there's writing the code, and on the other

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