Morning all. On July 22nd I shared this passage from a Politico story:
For months, President Donald Trump has insisted he could manage the Iran conflict on his terms: hit hard, force a deal and keep the United States out of another long Middle East war.
Instead the U.S. and Iran are escalating strikes. More U.S. service members are dead. Gas prices are again on the rise. The administration’s diplomatic off-ramp appears to be narrowing. And Republicans working to preserve their congressional majorities are beginning to contemplate a scenario they once viewed as unthinkable: a full-scale war still dominating the political landscape in November.
“We’re preparing for the bottom to fall out,” a GOP operative working on midterm races told Playbook.
Gas was $4.05 on July 22nd. It is $4.48 today:
Diesel prices have gone from $5.15 to over $6.50, an all time American record:
In those two months Trump’s poll numbers have just continued to drop. Here’s the new Reuters/Ipsos poll released yesterday morning:
In the past few days we’ve gotten a few generic ballot polls that suggest the battlefield may be eroding even further for the Rs, and the coming blue wave could be a very big one:
The most important data we’ve gotten in the past few days, however, comes from three new high-quality polls in Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Taken together they suggest that the bottom may have truly starting falling out for the Rs, and their Senate majority is in real jeopardy:
I also want to note that the new NBC News poll found encouraging news about our collective campaigns to urge Democrats to vote early:
36% of Democrats intend to vote early in person, up from 30% in '24
36% of Democrats intend to vote in person on Election Day, same as 35% in '24
23% of Democrats intend to vote by mail, down from 34% in ‘24
It is possible that once our collective early vote campaigns kick in we could see the early vote surge to well over 40% of the total vote, something that will without question drive weeks of stories of people voting early in record numbers - something that is a central goal of our early vote efforts.
Signs of escalating GOP panic and Trump’s decomposition, decline, and waning powers abound. Yesterday the major news organizations boycotted what’s known as the press pool to protest his banning of CNN, MS Now, and Politico from covering the White House. It lead to this Monty Pythonesque moment:
In a remarkable sign of Trump’s loosening grip on the GOP a Republican Senator has called for a formal investigation into the corruption of the Trump family:
Politico’s lead story today is a deep dive into the GOP’s escalating panic. It is full of “holy shit we are in trouble” quotes from Republicans:
Another clear sign of their panic is the furious effort to shape our understanding of these Senate races by once again flooding the zone with their polls. This illicit op is up to 34 polls in 14 states by 7 pollsters over the last 12 days:
Finally, we end our little romp through the GOP’s escalating troubles with a remarkable video from Mike Rogers in Michigan who openly breaks with Trump on the war (as has Ashley Hinson in Iowa in recent days) and proposes a break glass/full blown electoral panic idea of seizing domestic diesel - not an ending of the war, or a roll back of the tariffs, or the restoration of barbaric cuts to our health care - but literally the seizing of domestic diesel production to save his Trump-loving ass this November. It’s just so wild and out there, something beyond a Hail Mary. Here’s a screenshot and you can watch the entire video here:
And yes, my friends, as they panic, scramble, and flail, it is time to for us….
Three things you can do in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates:
Become an Early Vote Champion in your networks, communities, and organizations.
Sign up to become a Democracy Protector too. Our next training is this Wednesday at 8pm ET.
Email photos of your electoral work or physical act of voting to community@hopiumchronicles.com or via links on our daily chat. We want to start showcasing them here on Hopium.
Our Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund - Donate | $1,343,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers is most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to spend and contest). If we win these twelve races the House flips - period.
Our Stake In The Ground Fund now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22). You can meet all there remarkable candidates by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Our Winning The Senate Fund - $1,010,100 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | This fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
These are the majority makers in the Senate this cycle.
You can watch our interviews with each of these exciting candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them here. Our fundraising total includes money we’ve raised directly for each of the six candidates.
Our New Growing Our House Majority Fund - Donate | $417,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple. We win the House with the first fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48). You can watch interviews and learn more about these great candidates here.
Our Wining The States Series - Due to space limitations for today we’ve moved our state “Winning” series to this new page. Head there to make state specific investments in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin!
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $66,100 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground.
Help Hopium Close Strong - $77,000 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new fundraising drive for Hopium to allow us to expand our programming in these final critical days of the 2026 election and free up a bit of my time to support the State Parties’ Election Protection program. It will allow me to add some additional capacity here and make sure the vital State Party program is successful.
Remarkably my friends we hit our initial goal of $50,000 in just a few days - and have stretched our goal of this targeted fundraising campaign to $100,000. A huge, huge thank you to everyone who has chipped in here - I am humbled and energized by this rousing show of support for Hopium - and am starting the process now of bringing on some additional help for the home stretch.
Here are the ways you can support Hopium today:
Become A Paid Subscriber, Upgrade To Founding Member, Purchase Paid Subscriptions For Others - You can do all that here.
Donate Directly To Hopium - You can do that here via our first ever donation link.
Mail A Check To Hopium HQ - Send a check of any amount to 5185 MacArthur Blvd, NW, #600, Washington, DC 20016. Checks should be made out to “Hopium Chronicles by Simon Rosenberg.” Donations to Hopium Chronicles are neither tax-deductible nor tax-exempt.
Finally, self-report all the good trouble you are making each day in our paid subscriber chat below…..
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
