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Business Blog
Wednesday, April 15, 2026
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More Ugly Economic Data, More Evidence Of What A Historic Failure Trump And His Presidency Have Become
More Ugly Economic Data, More Evidence Of What A Historic Failure Trump And His Presidency Have BecomeJoin our Vote Yes phonebank this Thursday at 530pm ET and let's close strong in Virginia!
Morning all. This morning we got the third major inflation report, the Producer Price Index, and it increased by 0.5% in March, or 6.2% on an annualized basis. Let’s review the other inflation data we got in recent days. Last Friday’s Consumer Price Index report recorded a staggering increase of 0.9% in March, or 10.8% annualized: Last Thursday’s Personal Consumption Index (PCE), even though reporting data from pre-war February (not post-war March like the other two), still came in way too hot at 0.4 for both headline and core. Here are the trend lines for core PCE, inflation without food and energy, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. It was trending way above the Fed target prior to the war: And here we can see the impact of the tariffs and the war on PCE headline reading (including volatile food and energy): Two points. First, all this data shows that inflation was rising prior to the war, and thus the new rising inflation we’ve seen due to Trump’s policies will not be resolved by an ending of the conflict and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. It’s why any serious post-war recovery package must start with the rescinding of all of Trump’s illegal, inflationary, and destructive tariffs. Second, that Trump took us to war with inflation rising and job and GDP growth slowing makes his failed war look that much more reckless. He’s taken a wrecking ball to an economy that was already suffering under his “more for me and less for all of you” policies. Here’s what I wrote yesterday about the Congressional GOP’s shocking level of denialism and magical thinking about where we as a nation and they as a political party are now:
To save space in our daily email I’ve created a page where I’m now putting all of my current, working economic charts. Bookmark it for handy reference. And note that our latest data shows that in his two terms in office Trump has had both the slowest GDP and job growth of any President since Hoover - any President that is in the last 100 years. Yes, Trump is a titanic fuck up. Historic. The biggest and baddest there has ever been. In anticipation of the Spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, the IMF released its World Economic Outlook today that includes early efforts to understand the impact of Trump’s failed war. Here’s the NYT’s coverage of their findings (gift link):
And…..
Given the volatility of the global events, it is likely that polling is going to be very bouncy here in the US over the next few weeks. New data from the past few days suggest that his failed war and exploding gas prices may be pushing Trump’s approval down even further. Here’s Sunday’s CBS/YouGov poll. 39%-61% job approve/disapprove, the lowest showing for Trump so far in this poll: His handling of the war continues to drop: Trump’s now at his lowest level in the daily Civiqs tracking poll: A new Yale University poll shows dramatic movement towards Democrats with young people and women since the fall: And democracy and corruption still in the upper tier of issues with inflation and health care: For time and space reasons our “Let’s Get To Work” section can be found here today, with two exceptions - urging everyone to sign up for our Vote Yes phonebank this Thursday at 530pm (below) and watch my new discussion with Virginia’s inspiring Speaker Don Scott, who is leading the fight in the state to counter Trump’s illicit power grab. On Thursday we’re hosting our second Hopium Vote Yes phonebank with our partners Network NOVA and Rural GroundGame. We had hundreds of people join us last Thursday night for the first one, made over 50,000 dials, and members of this plucky and patriotic community reached over 5,000 voters in just a few hours. Our goal is to double those numbers this Thursday; and note that when we reach 5,000 voters, or 10,000 this week, we are reaching far, far more than that as each person we contact will contact many others in these critical, closing days. Sign up for our phonebank this Thursday at 530pm here - let’s blow this one out everyone! Here’s what Hopium community member John P said about our phonebanks last week:
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
© 2026 Simon Rosenberg |
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