Greetings all. Another remarkable week. I tried to make sense of it all in my last two posts and weekly video:
As of this morning my bottom line on the week - Trump is in profound political and physical decline; we have the wind at our backs and strong candidates running all across the country; they are going to fight like hell and do “whatever it takes” to stay in power; and we must fight like hell every day to beat them this November and ensure there is a peaceful transfer of power in January.
Trump got a goods job report yesterday and then the stock market tanked. So that little bit of good news the White House got was tempered by the broader damage their domestic policies - tariffs, health care cuts, mass deportation, tax cuts/bigger deficits - and his failed war have done to the economic lives of Americans and our overall economy - soaring inflation, slowing GDP growth, real wage decline, rising health care costs and reduced access to care, struggle for farmers and small businesses.
It’s was a powerful and sobering reminder that there is no easy way out for Trump and the Rs from the historic failure of their government, and even the one thing that has gone right - the stock market - may be on shakier ground than they understood.
Paul Krugman’s morning post does a very good at explaining what happened yesterday. An excerpt:
Trump professed to be baffled that a good jobs number should make stocks go down. But of course, it’s actually quite straightforward. What’s happening here is that with the combination of elevated inflation, now largely driven by the effects of Iran, and a job market that is holding up — that is not, in fact, falling off a cliff, if anything, appears to be accelerating — there is no case for cutting interest rates. A few months ago it seemed plausible that there would be some reduction in interest rates, that the Fed would have a rate cut or two this year. Now the chance of a rate cut, according to the market implied probability uh is around one percent. So there’s essentially no chance that rates will be cut and last I saw the market implied probability that rates will actually be increased is about 70 percent. Not big rate hikes but the Fed is probably going to find itself wanting to lean against potential inflation, against the possibility that inflation might get entrenched in the economy which is always their great concern. That’s not going to lead to drastic action but by any historical criteria there are is no case for cutting rates and there’s starting to be a reasonable case for increasing rates. Lots of stuff can happen but probably not soon so your expectation about what’s going to happen to the fed funds rate which is a very short term rate, actually literally overnight, has risen substantially that in turn leads to higher rates on longer term stuff which is what matters for economic activity. And that rise in interest rates hurts stocks.
There’s always a couple of different ways to say this, but should you put your money in stocks or in bonds, well, if interest rates are higher, people are less inclined to put in stocks or what is really an equivalent thing, since the price of a stock depends upon expectations of profits in the future, if interest rates are higher those future profits are discounted more which means that the price of stocks should fall.
So let’s take a step back and look at job creation not in any month but over both Trump terms. In sum - Trump has the worst jobs record of any President since Hoover:
As we are taking a step back I updated that famous chart I’ve been sharing in recent years, the one Bill Clinton referenced at the Democratic Convention in 2024. I start with 1989 for it was the first year of the post Cold War era, a new era of globalization, when everything changed for our economy and the American people:
One party has helped America prosper in this new age of globalization. The other hasn’t.
And here is a version of that chart going back to Truman. Yes, my friends, the two parties are not the same, and those who have told us so are charlatans and false prophets:
In the early days of Trump’s first term I wrote an essay that in many ways is the intellectual godfather of Hopium Chronicles, the earliest articulation of what became our creed here. It was called The Case for Optimism: Rejecting Trump’s Poisonous Pessimism. The data and arguments in this essay became a power point deck I started showing around town called Patriotism and Optimism, which eventually became the presentation many of you have seen here called With Democrats, Things Get Better. Here is how that first essay began:
So, imagine if you lived in America at a time when:
· Incomes of everyday people are at an all-time high, have been rising for at least four years now and saw their largest annual increase in recorded US history just a year ago.
· The unemployment rate is 4.3%, about at what economists consider “full employment.” This rate is historically low — over the past 70 years (821 months), the rate has only been lower in 130 of those months or just 16% of this 70 year stretch. A reminder that the unemployment rate never dipped below 5.3% during the entire Reagan Presidency.
· More people have health insurance and access to quality care than any time in American history. A recently implemented health care law has materially improved the lives of tens of millions Americans in a very short period of time.
· The US stock market is at an all-time high, and 33% percent higher than any sustained high in US history and between 5 and 10 times higher than where it has been most of last 50 years. So really high.
· The high school graduation rate is the highest ever recorded.
· Violent crime rates are half of what they were a generation ago, and cities across the US are blossoming, seeing growth, investment and people once again living “downtown.”
· Teenage pregnancy rates are plummeting, and now are at all-time low.
· There has not been a foreign fighter terror attack on US soil in 16 years, few American troops are dying overseas and the US faces no true existential threat from a foreign power.
· Due to smart policies and years of investment, the flow of undocumented immigrants into the US has dramatically slowed, seeing no net increase for a decade now.
· The US is taking control of its energy future, seeing a sharp decrease in foreign oil imports and sharp, even historic, increases in the production of renewable energy.
Would that America sound like a good America to you? I think so. And of course this list describes the America of today, early June, 2017. America is not without its problems, of course. Despite our economic success, we are still leaving too many behind. Growing levels of inequality are corrosive to the social fabric and bad for the economy too. We have too much public and private debt. Tribalism, racial strife and social coherence remain daunting challenges. Mass incarceration too. The opioid epidemic is tragic, and needs far more attention and action. Too few people vote in America, and our civic life needs renewal on many fronts…..
But it is the premise of this essay that while America has very real challenges, somehow the positive side of the nation’s balance sheet — and there is a lot there — has been recklessly ignored in our national discourse. It is my contention that contrary to the claims of our President, America hasn’t lost its greatness, and that by many historical measures there has never been a better time in all of America history to be alive. Certainly better than the Great Depression, or when we held millions of slaves in cruel bondage, or when kids worked and didn’t go to school, or before there was a minimum wage or a social safety net, or when little black kids and little white kids couldn’t drink from the same water fountain, or when tens of thousands were dying in Vietnam, or a Cold War could lead to nuclear annihilation at any moment? Or when sky high interest rates prevented us from buying homes, or women couldn’t vote or work or pursue their dreams, or when OPEC decided to punish America, forcing us to wait in lines for hours just to buy gas? Or especially, my Republican friends, when Ronald Reagan was President and the unemployment rate never dipped below 5.3?
And so six years after writing that essay, after 3 more years of Trump, insurrection, Biden’s historic win, the red wave that never came, and struck by the corrosive impact of pessimism and cynicism, the power of the right wing noise machine on our daily discourse, of unceasing bad faith analysis and a cowardly legacy media, and weaponized perpetual disappointment on our side I started Hopium, and wrote this:
I am calling it Hopium Chronicles because I want this to be a journey guided by hope and optimism, of belief in ourselves, of love of country and a clear understanding of the nature of the conflict we are in. I have become convinced that part of Greater MAGA’s strategy is to intentionally poison our discourse with negative sentiment every day. They want us to feel bad about America, our democracy, our leaders, our institutions, our success, each other, ourselves. We cannot let them do that any more. While they talk American down every day, we need to talk it up. While they spread lies, we respond with truth and data. Hopium is a rejection of the darkness they are trying to spread. It is a way of standing up for our great country and its remarkable people. It is the key to how we win.
In you dive into our growing library of 2026 candidates you will find your inner optimism, and feel pride in our country once again. We are blessed that despite it all so many inspiring Americans, from all walks of life, have decided to put it all on the line for their country. For any one you know who needs a lift, to believe again, send them to these discussions. Let them meet the ministers, navy pilots, farmers, prosecutors, history teachers, small business owners, fire fighters, marines, oyster farmers, Grammy award winning artists, doctors, small town mayors and tribal leaders who are now leading the charge in this great battle for freedom and democracy. Our job now, in part, is to turn these patriots into national heroes. We need to lift them up and make their names known across the country. They are our dream team. Our great hope. Our astronauts. Our great patriots. Winning in places like Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas - and in some of these +10 R House races we are fighting in - is a bit like sending folks to the moon, a moonshot, something hard, but something necessary, essential, and something we must now all do, together……
We’ve released a series of new candidate discussions this week - Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-01), Bob Harvie (PA-07) and Rob Sand running for governor in Iowa - which you can catch this weekend. You can find our 2026 Candidate Library on the Hopium site under the Podcast tab and on our YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify channels too. Head there whenever you need a lift, send others there too, and let’s make sure our astronauts get safely and successfully to the moon……
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign - $759,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends if these twelve win, the House will flip, no matter redistricting madness the Rs execute in the coming days. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Hopium’s Winning The House - Second Wave - $72,100 raised, $250,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one targeting candidates who’ve recently emerged from primaries or have to run in new districts. Our initial crew is Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Denise Powell (NE-02), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15). A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these six, and more as other worthy candidates emerge for their primaries. We are off to a great start here people!
Josh Turek For Iowa Senate - $8,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more and volunteer | Watch this video Josh’s campaign released on Tuesday night:
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $101,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
James Talarico For Texas - $83,600 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Learn more from my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Winning Ohio - $155,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party | Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $584,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up! | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five new battlegrounds
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years
Roy Cooper for NC Senate - $120,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my new discussion with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate - $183,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn more through my uplifting conversation with Senator Ossoff
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Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save, and elections all across this great country to win, together! - Simon
