Thursday, February 12, 2026

Veni, Vidi, Homicidi

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Veni, Vidi, Homicidi

Minnesota Retreat, Climate's Jenga Block

Dave Pell

Feb 12

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“I have proposed and President Trump has concurred that this surge operation conclude.” So said border czar Tom Homan as he announced that the Trump administration is ending its immigration surge in Minnesota. Of course, we’ll have to see it to believe it. The move likely has to do with budget negotiations in Congress, the incredible resistance of everyday Minnesotans, and (mostly) the extreme damage the images out of Minneapolis have done to presidential approval ratings and recent GOP election results. Here’s the latest on the planned departure. Even if federal agents do evacuate the city, many questions remain. Will they just be redeployed to another blue city? Are we witnessing Veni, Vidi, Retreati, or Veni, Vidi, Relocati? (As Minneapolis Mayor Jaocb Frey explained, “[This surge] has been catastrophic for our neighbors and businesses ... They thought they could break us, but a love for our neighbors and a resolve to endure can outlast an occupation. These patriots of Minneapolis are showing that it’s not just about resistance — standing with our neighbors is deeply American.” Let’s just pause and consider that this is an American mayor talking about an invasion of his city by American officials.) How many of the 4,000 arrestees actually committed crimes or posed any danger to anyone? Will there be any justice for the innocent protesters who were gunned down in the streets, or will those involved just be able to take their ball and go home—or to their next domestic deployment? And what will be the next twist in this troubling American saga?

+ For an answer to that last question, you may want to tweak a famous political adage, and follow the leases: “Over the past several months, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have carried out a secret campaign to expand ICE’s physical presence across the US. Documents show that more than 150 leases and office expansions have or would place new facilities in nearly every state, many of them in or just outside of the country’s largest metropolitan areas. In many cases, these facilities, which are to be used by street-level agents and ICE attorneys, are located near elementary schools, medical offices, places of worship, and other sensitive locations.” Wired: ICE Is Expanding Across the US at Breakneck Speed. Here’s Where It’s Going Next.

+ And, in case you needed one, here’s yet another reminder that many of the people who are being targeted for deportation aren’t who you think they are. NYT (Gift Article): Judge Ends Deportation Case for Mexican Father of 3 U.S. Marines. Narciso Barranco was detained while landscaping outside of an IHOP in Southern California. “At the time, the Department of Homeland Security defended the agents’ aggressive arrest, saying the agents had felt threatened by Mr. Barranco and accusing him of having raised his weed trimmer at them.” Given what we know now, I guess Narciso Barranco is lucky he’s still alive.

+ Scheduling Note: NextDraft will be off for most, and probably all, of next week, unless, you know, something really newsworthy breaks into the break.

2

Knocking Your Block Off

“We are officially terminating the so called endangerment finding, a disastrous Obama era policy. This determination had no basis in fact — none whatsoever. And it had no basis in law. On the contrary over the generations, fossil fuels have saved millions of lives and lifted billions of people out of poverty all over the world.” So said Trump, as the Environmental Protection Agency just repealed “its own conclusion that greenhouse gases warm the Earth and endanger human health and wellbeing.” EPA reverses longstanding climate change finding, stripping its own ability to regulate emissions. “If climate change law was a tower in the game Jenga, the endangerment finding would be a wooden block at the base.”

3

Sham, Slam, Thank You, Pam

“You’re siding with the perpetrators, and you’re ignoring the victims. That will be your legacy unless you act quickly to change course.” So said Rep. Jamie Raskin during an oversight hearing with Pam Bondi that devolved into a schoolyard fight. And when it comes to Bondi and the Epstein files, there are a lot of MAGA folks who would agree. But turning oversight committees into chaotic shouting matches certainly appears to be part of some bizarre strategy. To you, it probably looked like Bondi was crashing out, that the photo of her with her back toward Epstein victims was soulless, and that holding a burn book with canned personal attacks prepared for each questioner looked pathetic. But this show is for an audience of one, and the new goal in these oversight hearings is no oversight.

+ This hearing was similar to Bondi’s past performances. During the last one, the personal attacks “went for hours, a calculated performance that amounted to a giant middle finger to basic notions of decorum and accountability, leaving all sorts of questions unanswered, including a fundamental one that some of Bondi’s old friends and colleagues back home in Florida had been asking. As one of them put it to me: ‘I keep asking myself, What the f-ck happened to Pam?‘” (You could ask the same question about a lot of people these days...)

4

Five Ring Circus

In one of the mostly hotly-contested events on ice, USA’s Madison Chock and Evan Bates got edged out for ice dancing gold by the controversial duo of Beaudry and Cizeron. “The reigning European champions only teamed up last year and continue to face questions over their former partners.” Meet France’s controversial ice dance Olympic champions. The judging also proved to be controversial, driving headlines like this one: Olympic judge who cost Madison Chock and Evan Bates gold has a history of questionable scores. I’ve only been an expert in ice dancing since last night, but the winners looked pretty damn good to me. So did the silver medalists, for that matter.

+ IOC boots Ukraine’s Vladyslav Heraskevych from Olympics for wearing helmet honoring war victims.

+ Breezy Johnson gets engaged at Winter Olympics after boyfriend proposes at finish line. (The proposal came right after she crashed in her final event. If I had done something like that, I’m convinced I’d still be single.)

+ “No ice is colder and harder than speedskating ice. The precision it takes has meant that Olympic speedskaters have never competed for gold on a temporary indoor rink – until the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Games.” Meet the man behind the ice.

+ “’We sell it because it works, not because it tastes good,’ says Emil Sjölander, one of Nomio’s three founders, who described that taste as ‘some combination of wood and Dijon mustard.’” WSJ (Gift Article): Olympians Can Eat All the Pasta in Italy. So Why Are They Drinking Broccoli?

5

Extra, Extra

Alef Bet: The widespread adoption of sports betting has led to several scandals involving players and coaches. But with prediction markets, you can bet on anything. Will stories like this one become the norm? “Two Israelis have been charged with using classified military information to place bets on how future events will unfold.” I covered this topic in detail yesterday. As I wrote in ‘Dict Picks, I believe the increasing popularity of prediction markets will cause a gambling addiction scourge the likes of which we’ve never seen.

+ Tariff Not Now, When? “The House voted Wednesday to slap back President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, a rare if largely symbolic rebuke of the White House agenda as Republicans joined Democrats over the objections of GOP leadership.”

+ I Need Another ‘Gram: “Mosseri said that he didn’t think that it was possible to be addicted to Instagram but that “problematic use” was possible, though it varies from person to person.” Instagram chief denies social media can be ‘clinically addictive’ in landmark case.

+ Lead Balloon: “Officials targeted what they thought was a drug cartel drone, but turned out to be a party balloon, they said.” Border Officials Are Said to Have Caused El Paso Closure by Firing Anti-Drone Laser.

+ Nut Givin’ Up My Shot: “It’s hard to recall a regulator who has done as much damage to medical innovation in as little time as Vinay Prasad. In his latest drive-by shooting, the leader of the Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine division rejected Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine without even a cursory review. This is arbitrary government at its worst.” WSJ Editorial Board: Vinay Prasad’s Vaccine Kill Shot.

+ Your Place Or Mine(field): “Security measures once reserved for presidents and royalty—safe rooms, biometric access controls, laser-powered perimeter defenses—are now mainstream items in luxury homes. Executive-protection teams and armed guards patrol gated enclaves and suburban estates, while tech startups are rolling out predictive threat-detection systems built for the ultra-wealthy. The shift reflects a hardening view among the affluent: Traditional policing and communal safety are no longer enough, so security is being privatized, customized.” WSJ(Gift Article): The Mega-Rich Are Turning Their Mansions Into Impenetrable Fortresses.

6

Bottom of the News

Everything good about the early internet seems to have disappeared. Even cat videos have changed. They used to refer to videos of cats that humans could watch. Now they refer to content created for your pet. TV, It’s Not Just for Humans Anymore. (My beagles got bored with this stuff and now mostly just use AI to confirm their preconceived biases about my cats.)

+ Scheduling Note: NextDraft will be off for most, and probably all, of next week, unless, you know, something really newsworthy breaks into the break.

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Growth Newsletter #312

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The Growth Newsletter #312

How to win on Reddit in 2026

Quick intermission from the experimentation series.

Today we're doing something we haven't done in a while — passing the mic to someone else.

Colin James Belyea was a growth strategist at Demand Curve years ago. He went on to build Karmic, a Reddit-focused agency that helps brands build real organic influence on the platform. He knows Reddit better than anyone I've talked to, and today he's sharing their playbook.

This is the start of something I'm excited about: bringing in folks operating at the frontier of growth & GTM so they can share their insights with the DC community.

If you're one of those people (or know someone who is), just reply to this email. We'd love to hear from you.

— Justin

Brought to you by AirOps

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In this session, Lashay Lewis from BOFU.ai breaks down how B2B SaaS teams are capturing high-intent visibility in ChatGPT and Perplexity. You will learn why competitors are winning "best [category]" queries, which BOFU page types LLMs surface and cite, and how to turn AI visibility into measurable pipeline and revenue.

The session focuses on practical frameworks, real customer language, and a clear 60-day sprint your team can execute immediately.

📅 February 25, 2026
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Want to get in front of 103,000+ founders and marketers? Let's chat.

Most brands get Reddit backwards

Insight from Colin James Belyea — Co-Founder at Karmic Reddit Agency

Every other social platform rewards you for talking about yourself until people care.

Reddit is the opposite. If you show up promoting your product, Reddit will quietly make sure no one hears you.

Sometimes that throttling is obvious, like a removed post. More often, it is subtle — your content stays up, but your distribution disappears. Engagement stalls. It feels like you are "posting consistently," but you are not building reach.

It took us a long time (and more than one burned approach) to understand what was happening. The lesson is simple, but unintuitive:

On Reddit, the fastest way to gain influence is to stop trying to promote yourself at all.

From shadow accounts to trust and transparency

When we first started working on Reddit, we avoided branded accounts. We used anonymous profiles that looked like ordinary users, and when a Thread was relevant to a client, we would mention them casually.

At the time, it seemed like the only way to survive on a platform known for punishing self-promotion. And for a while, it worked.

Then the FTC's updated rule banning fake reviews and testimonials landed. Suddenly, it was obvious this approach had no future. Anything built on grey-hat methods was not going to compound. The moment enforcement or platform norms shift, the entire investment can evaporate.

So we scrapped it and committed to doing Reddit transparently.

Today, most teams we speak with understand the era of covert Reddit marketing is over. But while transparency is necessary, it's still not sufficient to make Reddit work for businesses.

Status comes before reach

Reddit's defenses are set up to protect it from accounts with ulterior motives. If it's obvious you're there to shill or manipulate, they'll figure you out pretty quickly.

In this environment, influence and reach can only be unlocked over time by building community trust first.

Every account starts with no status. Young, low-karma accounts are watched more closely and throttled more aggressively. Meanwhile, accounts that consistently contribute value earn higher status over time—their content ranks higher, and they're trusted more and given more latitude.

To maximize reach, you have to operate within the bounds allowed to an account at your current status level while deliberately building up that status so more powerful actions become available later.

Your account status is determined by two things:

Account Karma (how the community responds to your content)
Thread and Comment history (how moderators evaluate you)

Every interaction contributes to a running judgment: Is this account giving more value than it's taking? Only accounts that consistently provide value will raise their status over time.

We've compiled our learnings on how to do this into a process we recommend for any brand building an organic Reddit presence. We call it the Karma Ladder.

Climbing the Karma Ladder

The Karma Ladder is a progression toward higher-impact Reddit activity over time, while protecting your account and content from platform risk.

Each step aims to increase reach while managing risk. The key is to operate within the bounds allowed to your account at its current status level, while deliberately building up that status so more powerful actions become available later. Each step only works if the previous step was executed properly.

Here's how it works:

Step 1: Laying the Foundation

This phase is about looking and behaving like a real human.

Spend 30 days in subreddits completely unrelated to your business—places like r/coffee, r/books, or hobby communities. Participate in conversations and build your account Karma. The only goal is to establish baseline trust and safety with Reddit's systems.

Most teams try to skip this step. That's a mistake. Your account needs this foundation before it can effectively reach your target audience.

Advancement criteria:
✅ 30 days + 100 Karma

*Sounds silly, but pet Subreddits are great for this*

Step 2: Building Authority

Now you can start participating in Threads relevant to your target customers in real time, but only through Comments.

Don't include links or mention yourself, but focus on adding value. Answer questions thoughtfully, share insights, and contribute to discussions without any promotional angle.

Your handle quietly associates your brand with the topic at hand while your content builds authority. This is where the real work happens (and where most competitors give up).

Advancement criteria:
✅ 60 days + 60 relevant comments

*You won't get a huge amount of upvotes, but you don't need to.*

Step 3: Creating Engagement

Only once authority is established do you begin posting your own Threads. Even then, start with low-risk conversation starters designed to get the right people talking and reach as many of them as possible.

Done well, these Threads can spread widely and position your account as a curator of the most important discussions in the space. This phase also builds critical credibility with moderators, which will matter significantly when you reach Step 4.

This is often the hardest step. Getting 5-10 Threads to go viral takes skill, timing, and sometimes a bit of luck. Don't rush it—quality matters more than speed here.

Advancement criteria:
✅ 5-10 viral Threads (100k+ impressions for consumer, 25k+ for B2B)

*This one produced 366k impressions in 48 hours*

Step 4: Direct Intent

At this point, you've earned the ability to selectively direct attention. Even still, you'll want to manage risk appropriately.

By now, you should have 500+ Karma and meaningful relationships with Subreddit moderators. Before you post anything promotional, reach out to moderators directly. Share what you're thinking about posting and ask for their input. Most will appreciate the courtesy and give you guidance on how to do it in a way that benefits the community.

Think of this as insurance for the riskier swings you're about to take.

Start by adapting existing thought leadership into a Reddit Thread, progress to making a company announcement, and eventually host an AMA with founders or domain experts. With moderator support, they may even sticky your AMA announcement at the top of their subreddit.

Time investment:
✅ Each step requires 2-4 hours per week of consistent engagement

*This AMA ranked #1 for "Sprout Labs Reviews" on Google within 48 hours*

Why you can't skip steps

Everyone wants to jump straight to posting Threads. They're visible, quantifiable, and easy to report on.

Others try shortcuts: enlisting customers to post for them, coordinating upvotes, or dropping links to track attribution. These tactics usually violate Reddit's terms and always damage long-term reach.

Don't take the bait.

Without a foundation of valuable Comments, your Threads are fragile. They get removed more easily, attract moderator scrutiny, and cap your future reach in ways that are hard to reverse.

Commenting is the unglamorous foundation that makes everything else work. It's how moderators learn to trust you and how you build a defensible position. Skip it, and you'll be treated exactly as you are: an outsider trying to extract value rather than provide it.

How to measure progress

Reddit is a dark-social channel in a link-hostile environment. That makes measurement harder, but also creates opportunity.

Track two things:

Platform signals: Karma, impressions, and organic mentions by other users (we call these "Seeded Mentions")
Customer signals: Ask leads and purchasers where they heard about you, and include Reddit as an option

Some brands also track secondary signals like search visibility and LLM citations. No single metric tells the full story, so watch leading indicators while compounding effects build in the background.

Build a system, not a campaign

Successful Reddit programs are built on repeatable processes over time.

Identify the Threads your brand should join. Map the community's recurring debates. Optimize for Reddit's native signals, not clicks.

Most of this happens in unowned subreddits—communities you don't control, but where trust and audiences already exist. Creating a branded subreddit can work, but takes much longer. Most teams need to prove traction first.

The Reddit organic payoff

Done right, Reddit can become one of the most powerful compounding assets in a brand's stack.

You expand your SEO and AEO surface area by participating in (and later creating) Threads likely to rank in search and get cited by answer engines. Over time, your brand becomes familiar enough that others mention it without prompting, compounding the effect.

Engagement Threads extend your reach across the platform. Your brand name shows up next to genuinely valuable content, providing a trust halo effect. Eventually, you build an audience that knows, likes, and trusts you, who are more likely to recommend and defend you in conversations you're not even part of.

At that point, you've built Reddit into a PR megaphone you can leverage when it matters.

What Reddit rewards (and what it doesn't)

Most social platforms reward you for talking about yourself until people care. Reddit is the opposite.

On Reddit, the community supplies the context. Your job is to show up in the right places, add real value, and let that context associate you with the ideas that matter to your customers.

The brands that win on Reddit are the ones that resist the urge to promote and focus instead on earning trust through consistent contribution.

Do that well, and Reddit will give you something most platforms won't: influence that compounds over time, reach that doesn't require paid support, and an audience that recommends you without prompting.

It takes longer to validate than running ads. It's harder to measure than social channels that allow links. But it's one of the only truly compounding organic channels left.

Want to learn more? Read Karmic's entire Ultimate Guide to Reddit Organic

Colin James Belyea
Co-Founder at Karmic Reddit Agency

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👋 One more thing — this one's for the paid side of your growth engine.

Today was organic. Next week, we're going live on paid.

Prash Brooks — who leads paid acquisition at our agency — is hosting an open Q&A next Thursday. No slides. No pitch. Just 45 minutes of you asking him whatever you want about Meta or Google Ads.

Quick context on Prash: 15 years in paid media. Ex-Meta. Ex-Shopify. Has led paid programs at 100+ companies, from early-stage startups to Fortune 500s.

It's free. It won't be recorded. If you've been sitting on a question about your campaigns, this is the time.

Thursday, Feb 19 @ 9am PST

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