It was one thing after another for Marcus Aurelius, as we’ve said. Floods and famines. Wars and coups. Disorder and destruction. Matters of life and death.
These crises are instructive, naturally, and more specifically, can be opportunities for virtue. But they are also, in their overwhelming and tragic nature, often much more than we need, at least for learning purposes. No one would choosesomething like what Marcus Aurelius went through. No one would choose to learn the way Zelenskyy has had to or Churchill did. No one would want to trade places with Queen Elizabeth during her annus horribilis.
What is valuable (and much more practical), however, are small crises. Those wake-up calls. Those close calls. It’s these situations—significant but hardly mortal—that can make us focus. That can drive creativity, connection, and clarity. They are serious…so we have to get serious. They are challenging…and challenge us to rise up and meet them. They can make us better, if we insist on it.
In the moment, they may seem like they are great. Greater than we can manage. Yes, we might lose some things in the process. Yes, there might be consequences. But, in the grand scheme of things, we are still alive (and mostly our safety was never in doubt). If we’re alive, we can learn.
In fact, it’s typically when we don’t pay attention to and learn from the small crises that the world sends the big ones—the ones that come crashing down on us to finally get the lesson through our thick skulls.
When we stop resisting and start learning, the obstacle becomes the way.
Don't wait for a bigger crisis to force the lesson.
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Your Phone Number Is for Sale (And Scammers Are Shopping)
The BBC caught scam call center workers on hidden cameras as they laughed at the people they were tricking.
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Four of the Magnificent 7 reported earnings last night. How’d it go?
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The S&P 500 finished marginally lower on Wednesday, bouncing back from steeper losses as traders digested the somewhat hawkish shift within the central bank and awaited what was arguably the biggest postmarket earnings day of the year.
The Nasdaq 100 gained, while the Russell 2000 fell. Energy was the best-performing sector as oil prices rose on last night’s news that President Trump told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. Utilities was the worst performer.
MAG 4
Last night, the fate of the stock market for the next 90 days was determined in about 10 minutes
Four of the Magnificent 7 reported earnings last night. How’d it go?
Alphabet’s earnings and revenue blew past expectations. Alphabet’s profit was lifted by blockbuster gains on some of its equity investments — it said the value of its nonmarketable equity securities helped power a net gain of $37.7 billion. The company’s private investments include stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX.
Metadove after its earnings, which were a beat. The company’s all-important ads business jumped 33% in that time to $55 billion in revenue. More on why it dove in a moment.
Microsoftwhipsawed despite its own beat. In a closely watched number, Microsoft’s Azure cloud business increased 40% year on year, just above the 39.7% estimated. The metric technically beat expectations, but may not be the beat investors were looking for.
Amazon too whipsawed. Amazon Web Services sales of $37.6 billion handily surpassed the consensus call for $36.7 billion.
Why the uncertainty? In a couple of the cases, AI is getting more expensive than previously thought.
Alphabet’s capital expenditure continued to soar, jumping to $35.7 billion during the quarter, compared with $17.2 billion a year earlier and $27.9 billion in the fourth quarter.
Meta’s stock sank more than 6% after-hours after it said its capex for 2026 would be $125 billion to $145 billion, compared with analysts’ forecast of $122.6 billion (and higher than the $115 billion to $135 billion it estimated last quarter).
At Microsoft, total capex for the quarter was $31.9 billion, up 49% year on year, above estimates of $27.5 billion and down from Q2’s $37.5 billion.
So, are we good or not? Generally, all we needed to avoid was disaster in order to keep the party going. For these stocks, the golden rule is “don’t finish down 3% the day after.” Either way, things look all right for the overall health of the AI trade.
THE TAKEAWAY
But hey, one company’s capex is another’s billings, and look no further than Qualcomm for that. Qualcomm soared in postmarket trading yesterday on solid but unspectacular Q2 results and a downright disappointing Q3 sales forecast. The chip company, long on the outskirts of the AI and data center trade, is looking to make a more aggressive foray into the space. The stock, long overshadowed in the semiconductor space by its peers more tied to the AI boom or with surging memory chip prices working for rather than against them, hasbeen on a tear as of late.
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PASS THE TORCH
Federal Reserve keeps policy rates unchanged with a whopping 4 dissents
The central bank’s statement pointed to the potential for a continuation of this easing cycle by including the phrase “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target rate.”
Ahead of this decision, event contracts indicated a high likelihood that precisely one member would dissent at this meeting. That was wildly off the mark, with a whopping four members dissenting.
Three of those did not want an easing bias; Governor Stephen Miran preferred a rate cut at this meeting. This marks the highest number of dissents since October 1992.
The S&P 500 fell to session lows as traders digested the somewhat hawkish shift within the central bank, with two-year Treasury yields heading to their highs of the day and the US dollar strengthening.
During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he would stay on the Board of Governors for an indeterminate amount of time until the Justice Department’s criminal probe into the central bank is “well and truly over,” adding that he plans on keeping a “low profile” as a governor.
THE TAKEAWAY
The minutes from the central bank’s March meetingindicated that “most” participants thought a drawn-out war in the Middle East could weaken the labor market and warrant additional policy easing. Since that time, however, American job growthcrushed estimates in Marchand the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire. But the upward pressure on US retail gasoline prices continues — as does the lack of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders think it’s roughly a coin flip as to whether the central bank has shifted gears to deliver a rate hike by aboutQ3 2027, but see a less than one-in-five shot of any rate increases being delivered this year.
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
THE BEST THING WE READ TODAY
The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels
The UAE’s departure from OPEC on May 1 will end nearly 60 years of membership in the oil cartel, letting the Gulf state pump crude without production caps. Of the 12 nations in the core group, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily than the UAE last year, as visualized here.
📺 “American Idol”: As the singing competition comes down to its final five contestants, markets think Hannah Harper has the best shot at winning, with a 43% chance* of victory. Jordan McCullough (23%) and Keyla Richardson (27%) are considered her strongest rivals.
📊 Inflation: Expectations for inflation have shot up amid continued conflict in the Persian Gulf, with the chance that inflation in May comes in above 4% now up to 57%, according to prediction markets. Inflation being above 3% is now seen as nearly certain, with a 96% chance priced in.
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
Also in the winners circle is Starbucks, which reported that people were indeed coming “Back to Starbucks” with CEO Brian Niccol celebrating “the turn in our turnaround”
One analyst says bitcoin’s recent rally is almost entirely due to one big company’s constant buying
Fill ’er up while you can: gas prices are predicted to get worse, soon
Off the charts
As of 2024, which sandwich chain brought in the most money per store?
Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate... See more
