Greetings all. Sending along a video recording and rough transcript from my lively discussion with Jen and Norm this morning.
As I am traveling today I will let the video and transcript speak for me but here’s the bottom line - Iran was a huge mistake, and the Trump regime and MAGA coalition have begun to crack under the weight of their repeated, ongoing failures (see yesterday’s post for more on this).
And in case you notice yes my shirt today was inside out! Was rushing this morning, and shit happens!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You can follow their work over at The Contrarian.
Due to my travel these next few days my posts are likely to be a bit shorter and less frequent but they will come!
We’ve had some great guests drop by in recent days so if are looking for pods or deep dives head to the Podcast tab on the Hopium site or YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify too.
Keep working hard all. Team Trump is struggling and in retreat and we need to keep fighting - Simon
Jen Rubin:
It's Wednesday after a primary, so we have Simon Rosenberg. That's been our pattern. And we have to keep having him back because we keep getting good outcomes in these primaries. Good morning, folks. Good to see everyone…..
We are well past the 1,000 mark. And we do have Simon Rosenberg, the pollster, analyst, organizer extraordinaire. And we're going to talk big picture and little picture. Big picture - the wheels are off the Trump bus. They were coming loose, and then the war just pried them off and he is careening this way and that way, and in his reaction to the war we're seeing… our allies’ reaction to the war we're seeing dreadful inflation numbers that came out this morning for February wholesale prices, much higher in February, and we're seeing it to some extent I think in the reaction of Democrats both on the Hill and out there on the campaign trail. So with that, let's go through the races in Illinois and then we'll zoom out and talk about some big picture issues. Simon, it was a good night for Governor Pritzker. Not a good night for dark money groups like the AI folks and AIPAC.
Norm Eisen:
Crypto…
Simon Rosenberg:
Yeah, crypto. I think yes, I agree. And I think we had a definitive outcome in the Senate race and a great candidate who emerged there. I think my view about this, as we take a step back, because the amount of money that was spent by Republican-aligned groups last night, over the last few weeks in Illinois, was enormous. It was tens and tens of millions of dollars. And I think to say something that will make Norm happy, this is all part of this kind of new battlefield of 2026 where Republicans are going to do whatever it takes to stay in power. And that, you know, it's going to be this sort of unprecedented dark money interventions in our primaries which they're just warming up for what they're going to do in the general election, right? We have to assume that this is now hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars that's going to be spent against the Democrats in the general elections. Trump's own dark money group, his super PAC group… the SAVE Act and all the electoral shenanigans that they're going to try to pull.
You know, we're operating… they know they are getting their ass kicked. They know these things are breaking against them. And what we have to do a better job of preparing for is what I call this whatever-it-takes election. They are not bound by law or rules any longer. You know, they've got international actors that are going to be coming in to play in our politics. And what's important is that we also saw that despite this money and despite the ill intent, you know, they don't always win. And that, you know, politics is bigger than just super PACs. I will tell you, as somebody who's done outside spending like this in my own career, you know, it is very hard to come in from the outside and influence an election like is the way that they believe. And part of this is this kind of Trumpian oligarchical arrogance, right? That how dare they, you know, challenge us. And we're going to come in and show them who's boss. And it doesn't always work because politics is hard and complicated. So there are limits to their powers. Donald Trump is learning every day. And we should be heartened by that.
Jen Rubin:
Let's go through the races, starting with the Senate race. Raja was the typical establishment candidate. He got a ton of money from AIPAC. He got a ton of money from the AI folks. Stratton had the backing of Pritzker. And she was also a terrific candidate, more progressive, perhaps more in tune with the current ethos of the party. And she won substantially, Simon. It was not that close.
Simon Rosenberg:
Yeah. Also, if I'm allowed to use colorful New York language here, you know, she also produced this ad that has been the most memorable ad that any candidate's produced so far this year, which was an ad of people just saying, f*** Trump. And it was really kind of a visceral, you know, emotional frustration and anger that exists towards what he's doing to the country. People in Illinois, you know, had the battle with ICE. They were one of the first places that did real hand-to-hand combat with ICE before even Minnesota happened. So she also, I think, captured this zeitgeist of like, you got to be kidding me. You know, we have to fight this with everything we got. And I think this was an important lesson for Democrats. That what our electorate is looking for are fighters. And I think the ideological concerns, they're a little secondary. I think what they want more is people’s willingness to stand up to Trumpism and the damage and harms that he's doing to the country. She put that front and center in her campaign. And she was rewarded for it.
Jen Rubin:
And if and when she wins, we will have a historic three African American women in the U.S. Senate. So we do change. Just at a glacial pace.
Let's go through the individual races. In the Second, Miller won. AIPAC did spend money there for her, but in point of fact, she gave him kind of the cold shoulder and said, I'm not making any commitments. I'm not going to support Israel unconditionally. Her opponent was not that strong. AIPAC may want to claim victory, but that was kind of, in my mind, a relatively ordinary outcome. The Seventh was more interesting because the AIPAC candidate there lost. Talk to us a little bit about the Seventh and the young African American man who won, who really is an impressive individual, who I think will be a kind of a new rising face on the Democratic side.
Simon Rosenberg:
Look, I mean, you can't force outcomes not organically going to be there with outside money. And, you know, candidate quality, and being connected to the district, and running a modern race, all these things matter. I also want to say I haven't really done a lot of commentary on the AIPAC stuff because I have felt that it was sort of on the margins of the game, but not any longer. And the idea that AIPAC… that they're going to intervene in the election in 2026 and defend this war. I mean, I think this is this other thing. Of course, they manifest in these races with these fake names and you know, progressives and all this stuff. They create these fake cutout organizations.
Let's just take a step back for a second about the AIPAC project. And what is it going to be? That they want Democrats to be supportive of our Middle East policy, that's going to be something that is probably at 85%, 90% disapproval among Democratic voters? I mean, the AIPAC project become ludicrous. And, you know, as it goes forward, this is going to be an enormous test, if you don't mind me going off script here a second, an enormous test of us and who we are, our ability to organize against what is really kind of a rancid intervention in our own politics on something that is [such] anathema to us right now. And so, I think that you saw this was an example, right, where there's a limit to what they can do on the ground. And that's, to me, one of the most important stories across all these races last night.
Norm Eisen:
It should be profoundly reassuring, shouldn't it, Simon, for people who are fearful about 2026. And we should be at the edge of our chairs. We should be ready. We should be prepared. But the power of the voters is still the ultimate guardrail.
And we've seen this pattern. You contrarians have helped, for example, when we pushed back on Elon Musk in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race last year. Simon, how fearful or confident can American voters be right now as they look at the combination of Trump's authoritarianism and the big money, but also at the lessons of these races?
Simon Rosenberg:
I think the lesson is that we just have to fight it out. That there is sort of a new battlefield and we have to win on that battlefield. And I think to your point, Norm, you always counter me when I come on here about the successes, you know, the successes that we've had, and I appreciate that because I am the Hopium guy, right? That I think the lesson here is that Trump, that they don't always win and that they can screw up. And that there are limits to their power. And therefore, if we don't fight, we won't win. And we have to fight in order to win, right? That this is a requirement. For us not to get spooked, but to be resolute and to be strategic about understanding how they're manifesting now and what their tactics and strategies are in order to air these out so we can beat them. And I think that's part of what you're describing.
I think if I could say one last thing, Jen, the words I wrote down before I came on here today about Trump right now are defiance, cracking, weakness, struggle, decline… his powers are ebbing, right? This thing, they're not winning. And there's all sorts of not winning all across the board. And we should be heartened, Norm, to answer your question about all this. But we only win when we fight. And so the lesson is we have to fight everywhere all the time on all fronts, I think.
Jen Rubin:
Absolutely. The Ninth was, I think, the epitome of what you're talking about. And I have to give a shout out to our friends at J Street who have been fighting this fight. We had Daniel Biss on as a guest, and this was a case where AIPAC went all out, not to defeat the candidate who has the most antipathy towards Israel, but to fight against him because he has a nuanced view. Because he is influential within Democrats because he says you can be supportive of Israel but not give unconditional support for things that are not in our national interest. They claimed, oh, well we can take partial victory… but in fact, they went after him and he won. And he won with help from J Street. He won with help from Jan Schakowsky, his mentor, the great Jan Schakowsky, who he will be replacing. It was a tremendous example of what you're talking about. He called them out. He said, this is what they're doing now. This is who they are. These are the phony names they're using. They're coming after me. Don't call me, who is the descendant of Holocaust survivors, anti-Israel. Don't call me, who supports Israel's right to exist as anti-Israel. And he won. And I think that's what you have to do. You have to stand up and punch him in the nose. And it helps to have allies like J Street. But he did it. And I think that is the model. He did what perhaps Tom Malinowski didn't quite have time to do in the closing days in New Jersey.
Simon Rosenberg:
Yeah, I think you're exactly right. And Norm, you should jump in here. But the thing we have to realize [is] this is all a warm-up for the general election, because if people like Tom Malinowski and Daniel Biss are not acceptable, that means virtually no Democrat is, right? Because these are mainstream positions in the Democratic Party, you know, that are now being opposed.
Jen Rubin:
Correct.
Simon Rosenberg:
And so this is why we have to recognize that, you know, AIPAC is a Republican-associated organization, as is this AI crypto stuff that is going to be emerging. What they’re doing here, this is all just practice, right? For the general election. And one of the ways that the Republicans are gonna try to disqualify all of our candidates. This is going to be another vector of them going after the 30 or 40 candidates that are gonna determine the outcome of the majority in the House and the Senate in 2026.
Norm Eisen:
Simon, I will jump in and say that I'm a believer in big tents. And part of this extraordinary success… we just filed two briefs, historic briefs in recent days, led by our bipartisan colleagues at Democracy Defenders Fund in Action, Judge Michael Luttig and Judge Nancy Gertner… the AIPAC decisions that we've seen in this cycle, it's not the AIPAC that I grew up with. The first time I came to Washington… and I believe in a big tent in the Jewish community, ranging from center-right, and left… the first time I came to Washington, D.C., in my life, was on an AIPAC student delegation. When I was a freshman in college, I went to meet Henry Waxman. He still had hair. I still go to synagogue with him. Jen, he sits right behind me at the synagogue every Shabbat. I shook hands with him this Shabbat. I love to remind him that he was my congressman in L.A. at the time I was a freshman in college on the East Coast.
AIPAC, in what they've done… I'm going to appeal to them… AIPAC, if you're listening, as they say, come back to the big tent. Israel should not be a partisan issue. Do not make the short-sighted mistake of thinking that this issue is owned by one side or another. We need to resume a vision of a two-state solution. We cannot identify ourselves with the Netanyahu regime. You can still be a liberal Zionist, as I am, and repudiate Netanyahu. I'm a patriotic American, but I repudiate Donald Trump. Netanyahu is no more for the idea of a peaceful coexistence and a two-state solution with rights for everyone. AIPAC, come back to the big tent. Come back and support pro-democracy solutions. Support pro-democracy forces right, left, and center in Israel and in the United States. I think that this strategy has been so misconceived, and I hope they'll reconsider. And we'll be watching actions. Let's see what actions we get.
Jen Rubin:
Unfortunately, I think this is not AIPAC writ large. These are the few billionaire Republicans who have poured money into them and they have hijacked this organization.
Norm Eisen:
But Jen, they're making such a terrible mistake in the long-term interests of democracy and the Israel-America alliance.
Jen Rubin:
Absolutely. We're on somewhat of a deadline today because Simon has a hard out at 9:45. Let me just briefly say, the resignation of Joe Kent has really rocked the Republican Party… Joe Kent is no one to hold up as a model. He's an anti-Semite. He's a conspiratorialist. He blames Israel for the war. This is Donald Trump's war. It is Donald Trump's responsibility. He cannot voice this off on another country. So on one hand, we always like to see them fighting among themselves. This is a preview of what's to come as their coalition cracks up. But Joe Kent is no hero. Norm, while we have you, can you take us through two or three of the big wins which kind of illustrate Simon's point about resistance? We've had wins at VOA. We've had wins in New Jersey. And we're making progress on the Kennedy Center. Take us through each one of those briefly.
Norm Eisen:
Yeah. Contrarians, you are a part of this because the original vision that Jen and I had was to be owned by nobody. So what will we do with the profits? All profits go to the pro-democracy litigation at Democracy Defenders Fund, Democracy Defenders Action, and our huge coalition, hundreds and hundreds of allies all over the country.
The coalition had a smashing success last night on the Voice of America, strongly bipartisan, Republicans in Congress, MAGA, just reappropriated money for Voice of America. Donald Trump defied Congress. He literally tried to silence our voice around the world that people like those courageous dissidents in Iran are counting on to know the truth. And we went to court and we stopped him. Judge Royce Lamberth, a Reagan appointee. No liberal. Judge Royce Lamberth said, you can't define Congress that way. You've got to rehire over 1,000 Voice of America journalists and workers. You've got to restore Voice of America's voice. And you've got to do it by Monday. Contrarians, I thank you. Those journalists thank you. And all over the world, people are going to get the news again. They thank you, especially in Iran. And we have a case coming to fight what Trump is doing in Iran. Stay tuned. We'll talk about that in future days.
Number two - Jen asked about New Jersey. Another Contrarian victory. We challenged with your support, Alina Habba, the phony, crony Trump U.S. attorney. We won that very first case and we won on appeal. And that is having a ripple effect that, again, Trump… it has to go through Congress. He's not allowed to just stick his people in to prosecute whoever they want. That was the foundation. Our win in New Jersey, your win, Contrarians, was the foundation of the Tish James and Jim Comey cases where we filed briefs on behalf of judges. Again, both parties, big tent. Those cases were thrown out. Now the judges are interrogating the people Trump installed in New Jersey. And very important… it's jeopardizing a child… they messed up a child pornography and abuse case because they were so eager to do [Trump’s bidding]. And they admitted they messed it up, in my view, because they were so eager to do Trump's bidding.
That's the corruption of this regime. Contrarians, they serve Trump's interests, not the public interest. The most vulnerable get injured. It's like the Epstein Files case where we're also litigating to liberate those documents. And the 267 other cases that we are working on thanks to the support from all of you. It's a big coalition. Takes a village. You make it possible.
Jen Rubin:
Absolutely. And by the way, two little addendums in that New Jersey case, the judge read to the poor lawyer and said, you have forfeited the credibility of the U.S. Attorney's Office that has taken decades to build up. You guys have blown it. I don't believe what you're saying. And that's frankly what a lot of judges all over the country are saying. I also want to note that on the Kennedy Center, although they won a procedural skirmish, that fight is far from over. The battle to prevent the Kennedy Center from being leveled and being shut down goes on.
Norm Eisen:
Breaking news. Yes, it's another one of your cases, Contrarians. Thanks to all our wonderful team… we introduced you to them when we had our retreat the other week. In the Kennedy Center case, we forced the government… and yesterday, we still have some disagreements, but we've basically narrowed the differences on a briefing schedule, and even the government agrees we're going to queue up the illegal renaming, the illegal closure, and the illegal demolition before it happens… they fell down before we hit them, Jen. So we now have got some little differences. We're going to have a briefing schedule, and we are going to get a powerful case in there. It's such an insult to the memory of John Kennedy and everybody. Jen and I used to go to the Kennedy Center. We're not going to go there for a Kid Rock concert.
Jen Rubin:
I got my money back before they closed down, by the way. Simon, before we go to what we're looking forward to, I want to raise with you the DHS shutdown. The Democrats have presented their demands and the White House sent back a squirrely letter. Tell us about that and what you read from that squirrely letter that basically says, we'll do these little things that basically say we have to abide by the law, but we don't want to do anything else.
Simon Rosenberg:
Yeah, I mean, among the five things in their counterproposal, which took a month for them to generate, was that they would not deport American citizens, which was in theory a concession, right? I mean, this is how absurd on the face all this was. None of this would fundamentally change the terror regime that's in place. It's all putting lipstick on the pig.
But I think it speaks to this broader retreat that they're in. Mike Johnson even used the term course correction on immigration and mass deportation at their retreat a few days ago. Bondi, you know, is running into the Congress today to try to forestall her having to do something, you know, to go on the record in her testimony. She's been subpoenaed. Trumpism is failing and [his] people are falling. Noem fell. Kent left. And Bondi is, you know, scared. And they've essentially lost this fight on DHS, immigration, and ICE, too, because Democrats also today, the House Democrats are introducing a discharge petition that would fund TSA and CISA and all the parts of the DHS that have been shut down that aren't ICE and the terror regime. And so the Democrats also outsmarted them here.
They thought, like every time… Trump always believes they're going to win every argument with us… that the country will rally behind them, and they always fail to… and so now they are signaling enormous retreat. But of course, the retreat for them is lying and bullshitting their way through it, not actually making a fundamental course correction on policy, right? Trump could have abandoned the tariffs. He didn't do that. He could have reined in ICE. He's not willing to do that. They could have walked away from the detention centers. They're not doing any of that. So there's no course correction on policy. There's just a course correction on the politics. And that speaks to the arrogance that we were describing earlier. This oligarchical arrogance that they believe they have the power to create truth.
And so I think we should be heartened that we went to battle on DHS and ICE. They are in retreat on this. We're winning this fight. I don't imagine the Democrats will accept this counterproposal because it is thin, but it's a sign of the weakening of the regime and the cracking of the regime, which is why we have to stay on offense. And we only got here because we fought. So the lesson is we have to fight more on more fronts, more aggressively, because they're in retreat. Their thing is cracking and failing. We're winning and they aren't. And so I'm heartened by what we're seeing here.
Jen Rubin:
Simon, what are you looking forward to?
Simon Rosenberg:
I'm looking forward to baseball. You know, we need these outlets away from politics to keep ourselves sane and together. I'm a longtime baseball nerd, and I'm a heartbroken Nats fan because it's been a little bit tough being a Nationals fan in recent years. But, you know, we got a bunch of young players. We got a new manager, new management team. You know, the World Baseball Classic was terrific baseball and brought nations together. It was very affirming. The United States lost to Venezuela last night, which also was this incredible kind of thing that just happened, right, given everything that's happening. But I'm looking forward to baseball returning. Opening Day is next week.
Jen Rubin:
Norm, what are you looking forward to?
Norm Eisen:
Well, apropos of Simon's point about fighting, [the] MAGA crowd in the Senate has run into a buzzsaw in the form of an organized, powerful, congressional, and citizen response to the Save Trump's Ass Act, as a senator friend of mine likes to put it. This is not a voter ID bill. It's the most massive voter ID obstacle, hurdle, and disenfranchisement package… making it impossible if you vote against Trump to vote. And the Democrats are showing that strength. So I'm looking forward to that continued fight today. And we'll have a contribution to that fight. I'll talk to you about it tomorrow morning, Contrarians, on coffee.
Jen Rubin:
I am looking forward to Texas. Donald Trump said he was going to pull the plug on one of those candidates, and the suspicion was that he was going to try to get Ken Paxton out of the race. Paxton made a clever ploy and he said, I'll get out if you pass the SAVE Act, which of course wasn't going to happen. Well, the deadline has come and gone. So Donald Trump does not get to play kingmaker, and the two dunces are still in the race. They will tear one another apart. John Cornyn has gone super negative using the Love Shack song against Paxton, which was classic. They are going to rip each other apart, and there will be, at the end of the day, James Talarico, a shining star, someone who talks about faith, someone who has really cultivated the Hispanic community. So I am looking forward to Texas.
Friends, thank you so much. Simon, thank you so much. We love your nerdiness. We love your big picture and your granular take. Norm, always good to catch up on the wins. Take care, everyone. Contrarians, you brought Voice of America back. So tell your friends.
Norm Eisen:
The wins are at our back.
Simon Rosenberg:
That was good, Norm… thanks everybody.
Jen Rubin:
Thanks so much, everyone. Have a great day. Bye-bye.
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