It’s too bad the March Madness moniker is already taken, because there aren’t a lot of better ways to describe the latest mad-making weekend in geopolitics. In a social media post, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or he’d start bombing power plants. Iran issued counter-threats about hitting other power and desalination plants in the region. By Monday morning, Trump had backed off his original ultimatum, saying that the highly inexperienced and highly conflicted team of Kushner and Witkoff had some productive talks with Iranian leadership. Iran went so far, we’re told, as to agree not to have a nuclear weapon. The Iranian side insists that no such talks took place, and given Trump’s track record with honesty (including when it comes to this war), it’s hard to imagine he’s the one telling the truth (even when being measured against what’s left of one of the world’s most awful and perennially mendacious regimes). To summarize, an unstable leader leading an optional war made threats via social media and then rescinded them based on what appears to be imaginary talks and then lied about the whole thing, leaving our strategy unclear, our goals still a mystery, and a key energy route still closed. And the market responded to this mind-boggling instability (and what looks a lot like its own manipulation) by ... soaring. Yes, the same market we’ve long depended on to be an unemotional measure of corporate health and future earnings, dependent on stable leadership and the rule of law, seems to be going as insane as the rest of us. We’re talking crazy money, here. Before we follow the money, shouldn’t we consider who the money is following? It’s not like investors aren’t aware that the person whose words are dramatically moving the market is known for constant lying. But they’re still buying his BS. Trump has given new meaning to the phrase, bull market. Don’t get me wrong. My portfolio is as relieved as yours. But it sure seems like the market is in denial about what’s going on in American politics. Or maybe, like the rest of us, the market was happily distracted while tracking college basketball brackets over the weekend — at least there, we’re supposed to have madness. 2It’s Not the Size, It’s the TechniqueOne thing we’ve learned in Ukraine and the Gulf is that war is being transformed by cheap drones, big data, and AI. In this video, Fareed Zakaria examines Iran’s military response to US, Israeli airstrikes and says that it represents a new military architecture that is challenging the old model of military supremacy. “What used to require great industrial nations capacity can increasingly be assembled, adapted and scaled by much smaller states. The economics of war are being turned upside down.” In some ways, this trend levels the military playing field 3Not Going Anywhere For a While“Security lines stretched for hours on Monday at US airports where unpaid Transportation Safety Administration screening agents refused to report for duty.” So far, Trump has rejected proposed deals to fund parts of DHS to create an off-ramp for the nightmare delays taking place at many airports. The solution so far: Send ICE into airports. (Untrained ICE officers vs Irate Travelers. What could go wrong?) 4Paper and Fire“The body lay slumped on the jail floor, curled around a metal toilet. Investigators found no evidence of homicide, just a few scraps of rolled-up paper, singed and scattered on the floor like scorched confetti. For months, inmates had been falling ill at the Cook County jail in Chicago. Officials said they had heard rumors that extremely toxic drugs were infiltrating the facility, delivered on something so ordinary that it seemed impossible to stop ... The paper itself must be the culprit — and it was deadly.” NYT (Gift Article): No Pills or Needles, Just Paper: How Deadly Drugs Are Changing. And what’s happening in jails is likely coming to a street corner near you. “The unbridled rise of synthetic drugs is as profound for the illicit drug market as the television was for the radio, or the computer for the typewriter, scientists say, and it is confounding law enforcement officials the world over. ‘This is the modern drug epidemic: It’s like nothing that’s happened in the world before — anywhere.’” 5Extra, ExtraThings Are Going Bad, Stat: “I’m an E.R. doc, so I handle stress pretty well. But this was like being in a mass disaster nonstop for eight months.” ... “I don’t think it is well understood that we’re not going to see the outcomes of all of this until Trump is long gone.” NYT (Gift Article) talked to 43 current and former CDC employees. The prognosis is not good. Inside the Turmoil at Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s C.D.C. 6Bottom of the News“Senior living resident Anita LeBrun wants to ‘cheers’ her friends with something stronger than grape juice. LeBrun is going viral for her testimony at a Minnesota House of Representatives committee meeting, where legislators considered the so-called ‘Grandparents’ Happy Hour’ bill that would allow group homes to serve alcohol to their residents and guests.”
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Monday, March 23, 2026
The Bull---- Market
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