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What Happened in Texas While You Were Sleeping—and Why It Matters

Democrats just won a stunning victory in a very Republican county in Texas

Dan Pfeiffer

Feb 1

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While you were sleeping on Saturday night, something happened that will scare the shit out of every single Republican on the ballot.

I pay pretty close attention to special elections around the country—not just high-profile congressional races like the one in Tennessee a few months ago, but also state legislative and other down-ballot contests. While these results are never perfectly predictive, they are an important data point for understanding the political environment. Are Democrats fired up or depressed? What about Republicans? How are voters processing what Trump is doing?

I’ll admit, I tend to focus on races where Democrats have a plausible chance of winning—or at least getting close enough to make things interesting.

For that reason, Saturday night’s runoff election for a Texas state Senate seat was barely on my radar. This was a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024. Based on how Democrats have performed in special elections over the past year, it seemed like we might get close at best—but not close enough to really matter.

Well, Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a machinist and union leader, defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss—and he didn’t just win. He won by a stunning 14 points.

That’s a 31-point swing from 2024.

This stunning victory in a deep-red Texas county is sending shockwaves through the political system.

This is a big effing deal...