The Trump Slowdown Is Here, Tariff Madness Escalates, Dems Lead In Party ID And Generic BallotTerrible jobs data confirms Trump's economic agenda is failing the country
Morning all. We are here now, the place economists and commentators said we would be if Trump went ahead with his insane economic agenda - the economy has slowed, inflation has been re-ignited, the deficit is growing, ACA health care premiums are skyrocketing, interest rates remain too high, and working people have been betrayed. And yet, despite it all, Trump is barrelling ahead with his plan for Smoot-Hawley level global tariffs. Let’s start with the terrible jobs data released this morning:
What is now clear is that job creation in the US started immediately slowing down after Trump made his “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in early April. We averaged 162,000 jobs created in Trump’s first 3 months. In the months after the tariff announcement it has been 35,000 per month. For comparison Joe Biden averaged about 385,000 jobs created per month, more than ten times the rate of the past 3 Trumpian shitshow months. For a bit more historical perspective here are some graphs from my last With Democrats, Things Get Better presentation from August of 2024 (yes it is time to bring it back, get it updated). Trump’s second term data is not yet included:
Yes, adding in Trump’s 600,000 jobs created so far it is a fact that 95% of all jobs created in America since 1989 have come under Democratic Presidents. All of this a reminder that the last 3 Democratic Presidents brought economic growth, higher wages and lower deficits. The last 3 Republican Presidents all brought recessions and higher deficits. When last in office Trump brought us one of the worst recessions we’ve ever experienced and the highest annual budget deficit since WWII. It appears that this wrecking ball of a man is about to bring yet another Republican recession and is certainly bringing us higher deficits, once again. Yes, here, we will be working together to keep busting the ridiculous myths that the economy does better under Rs (no fucking way) and they are fiscally responsible (also no fucking way). There is one party that has repeatedly brought growth, higher wages and lower deficits and that party is the Democratic Party. The economic data we’ve gotten this week should cause Trump to drop his reckless global tariff ambitions. He has been warned, repeatedly, by everyone including the Fed Chairman about what would happen if he implements these tariffs - slower growth, higher inflation, no cuts to interest rates, higher deficits, angry allies, unknowable chaos and deep risk to follow - and we are here now, in that bad place, where all the things people have been warning about are coming to pass EVEN BEFORE THE FULL IMPLEMENTATION of the tariffs. The NYT has a great article showing the current tariff rate by country (gift link). Yes we have now learned that Trump intends to put at least a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US, and much higher rates on select countries and goods. Some examples:
Here’s how that NYT article summarizes what Trump is doing:
In my weekly talk and post “Trump’s Tariff Madness Makes It Clear He Doesn't Give A Sh-t About The American People” I go into all of this into much greater depth, and encourage you to watch if you haven’t gotten do it yet. And of course all of this being done without the consent of Congress, illegally and unconstitutionally. It is modern day taxation without representation, Mad King stuff, the greatest abuse of Presidential power with no near peer in our history. For these illegitimate and destructive tariffs will effect the lives of every single person in the world; and yes, it appears, as we have been warning, that Trump has chosen to use these global tariffs as THE THING to make him STRONG and POWERFUL again, to restore his MANHOOD after Elon wounded it, to force the world to BEND THE KNEE as he declines both politically and physically. Again, not only has Trump been warned about the global and domestic harm these tariffs will bring, but to confirm the madness of it all there is very little question that the implementation of these tariffs will drive his already ugly poll numbers down even further and push him further and further away from the electorate:
It is why it is time now for Democrats to make it clear that we are running against Trump’s entire madman agenda of sabotage, plunder and betrayal and not just against the big ugly bill. We can and must oppose these tariffs, call for them to be rescinded completely; for the tax cuts on wealthy people to be repealed; for the cuts to the ACA, Medicaid, and the NIH/biomedical research community to be restored as a starting place (see our working agenda for more). Trump’s “more for me, less for all of you” economic agenda has failed, as all recent Republican economic agendas have. We must now work to mitigate the the damage it is already doing, and will continue to do; and, together, find a better path forward for America and the people of the world. Dems Now Lead In The Generic Ballot, Party ID And Enthusiasm - For time and space reasons a full treatment of the following data will have to wait a few days but here are three new sets of data that confirm that Democrats are in a stronger position right now than conventional wisdom holds (and yes also not yet where we want to be): 1 - New Generic Ballot average from Strength In Numbers finds Dems with a 2.3 point lead in the battle for Congress next year:
2 - New Gallup data shows Dems retaking the lead in Party ID:
And here’s that CNN graph that tracks enthusiasm:
Trump is stumbling, making enormous mistakes and in politcal and physical decline. He is giving us a huge opportunity now, and we need to seize it, together. Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Here at Hopium we like to do. Here we are proud, plucky, patriots but we are also put your head down, grind it out, get shit done doers. Trump and Republicans have stumbled, and given us a big opportunity now to tell our story and win back power. So let’s get to work everyone! Support Hopium’s Priority Candidates And Party Committees - A reminder that Election Day, 2025 is a little more than three months away and early voting starts in Virginia in less than two months - September 19th! Donate, volunteer, learn more about our candidates and opportunities here. I consider all these options must dos for anyone serious about winning this year and next year. Note that Governor Roy Cooper announced a record breaking $3.4m fundraising haul in his first 24 hours in the race. Amazing stuff everyone! Can we get it to $10m by the end of his first week? Let’s keep working it…..
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025. We can do this people! Great Conversations For Your Weekend Viewing And Listening - We heard from a lot of wonderful people this week. Get to these great conversations when you can:
Our Recommended Actions - We are prioritizing three actions today. You can get our full list of recommended actions here. Let’s get to it: 1 - Call your Senators and Rep To Demand They Rescind Trump’s Terrible Tariffs - Congress simply must take back its tariff authority that Trump has illegally and unconstitutional seized and dangerously abused. It is time now for to rescind these terrible and destructive madman tariffs. 2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 50 resolutions projects in 20 states. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election? Our newly updated Resolutions page includes a new chat for folks to report in on their progress or seek counsel from those interested in launching a resolutions project in their community. This is one way to fight back against Trump’s unprecedented abandonment of our Constitutional order. 3 - Grow Hopium And This Wonderful Community Of Proud, Plucky, Patriots - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 152,000 we are now to 175,000 by Election Day, 2025. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. If each current paid subscriber brings in just one new subscriber this summer we will hit our goal. To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day. Use that link to buy gift or group subscriptions, and join our new referral rewards program too. Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!! Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you, and a fight it truly is - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Friday, August 1, 2025
The Trump Slowdown Is Here, Tariff Madness Escalates, Dems Lead In Party ID And Generic Ballot
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