Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 601

NO. 601   FREE EDITION   SUNDAY 20 JUL 2025
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My work

Network State podcast

I had a long and interesting conversation with my former colleague from a16z, Balaji Srinivasan. LINK

Now with video: AI eats the world

Every year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. New in summer 2025, 'AI eats the world'. LINK

News

Agents for OpenAI and Claude

OpenAI's big splash this week is its own agent platform, linking together 'Operator' (using websites for you) and 'Deep Research' (long-form analysis) such that ChatGPT can make use of the web, download files and make reports, spreadsheets and slides for you.

This is magic. But also, watch the demos, and you hear phrases like "it got 98% of the numbers right". Is that good, or a deal-killer? Also this week, and on the same theme, Anthropic released a product aimed at financial services, which has "83% accuracy on complex financial modelling tasks". Again, what does that mean? See this week's column. OPENAI, CLAUDE

Windsurf fallout

Last week the management and core engineering team at Windsurf (AI coding) abandoned the company to work for Google, while Google paid $2.4bn into Windsurf as a 'licensing fee' - leaving the actual company, its customers and its employees marooned. This week Cognition, another AI coding startup, bought the remainder, mostly to get the sales team, meaning they at least get a softer landing. There is a crushing sense of urgency around AI at the big tech companies, but as I wrote last week, urgency means things get missed, and meanwhile these kinds of structures risk breaking the social contracts of what it means to fund or work at a successful startup. LINK

JP Morgan takes private markets under coverage

JP Morgan's equity research group will start covering large private tech companies, even though they're not directly investable, reflecting just how big they've become (Anthropic is apparently planning a raise at $100bn and OpenAI closed at $300bn a couple of months ago), and how much public markets investors need to understand them as part of the broader context. See my previous point. JPMORGAN, ANTHROPIC

Kimi as the new DeepSeek

Chinese open source models keep coming - Kimi is the latest, with top-tier benchmarks: it's number 5 on the overall LMArena benchmark, matching Claude. SOTA foundation models are expensive, but there are a lot of them. LINK

The week in AI

Mark Zuckerberg says Meta will "invest hundreds of billions of dollars into compute to build super-intelligence. We have the capital from our business to do this." Current capex guidance for 2025 is $64-72bn. LINK

Netflix used generative AI for an effects shot in an Argentinian sci-fi series. This shouldn't surprise anyone. LINK

Google is expanding AI-based security capabilities. LINK

An interesting rumour: apparently Accenture has considered buying WPP. These are two companies being overturned by generative AI, from different directions. LINK

The US slightly relaxed restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing Nvidia to resume sales of more powerful hardware in return for China relaxing restrictions on 'rare earth' minerals. LINK

Uber builds its robotaxi strategy

I noted recently that Uber may be looking at partnering with Travis Kalanick to invest in Pony.ai, a Chinese/US autonomy company. This week it said it would partner with Lucid (EVs) and Nuro (autonomy) to launch a fleet, investing in both companies. In parallel, it's partnering with Baidu to deploy outside the USA. Just to keep things interesting, a short seller claimed Pony is a fraud. LUCID, BAIDU, PONY

Google merging ChromesOS and Android

Google has two main device platforms, ChromeOS and Android - it's tried running Android apps on Chrome, but now it's going to build ChromeOS on top of Android. This is probably part of a more general consolidation and housecleaning as the company pivots everything around AI, but the product strategy puzzles me. The appeal of ChromeOS is the simplicity and invulnerability, and how do you keep that if it runs on Android and runs Android apps? Android tablets have never rivalled the iPad - how does this fix that? (If it's any comfort, Apple seems just as confused about its iPad strategy - is this simpler than a Mac or not?) LINK

Google TV?

Apparently, Google is planning a new entertainment studio to make programming that's 'positive' about tech. How much money do they plan to spend on that? This sounds like an idea that shouldn't have left the bar at the comms team's offsite. LINK

Microsoft in China

ProPublica discovered that Microsoft was using Chinese engineers in China to do tech support for the US military. Microsoft is scrambling. Stories like this make me wonder why China needs its own spies. LINK

About
What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 25 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst, and I speak and consult on strategy and technology for companies around the world.

Ideas

Can LLMs do accounting? Error rates matter, and saying 'the models are getting better' misunderstands the issue: you have to presume there will be mistakes and look for use-cases where that doesn't matter or where the errors are easy to find, not hand-wave it away. LINK

Using satellites to spot online scamming centres in the borderlands of Myanmar (they're huge, and surrounded by barbed wire and guard towers to stop the workers from escaping). Imagine explaining that sentence to someone in 1990. LINK

The new Kia crossover EV accelerates faster than a new Ferrari. I remember a decade ago that a lot of people did not understand that Teslas were fast because electric motors work differently to internal combustion engines, not because of anything specific that Tesla was doing. LINK

Meta's attempt to make WhatsApp a fintech platform in India is not going well, apparently. LINK

Hertz is using image recognition to look for damage to rental cars. LINK

AI capex is eating the economy. LINK

An essay on what it's like working at OpenAI. No email. LINK

Outside interests

The Stock Market Computer, from 1967. Sadly, the 'Dow Jones' dial only goes to 2000. LINK

The magic IBM expanding keyboard. LINK

Your lost suitcase is probably in Alabama. Fascinating. LINK

Data

The New Consumer's mid-2025 report. LINK

The Brookings Institute analyses the geographic spread of AI in the USA. LINK

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Preview from the Premium edition

AI error rates, validation and leverage 

Generative AI models are statistical, probabilistic systems, as opposed to all previous software, which is deterministic. That means they can answer new kinds of questions and answer questions in new ways, but it also means that there is, inherently, an error rate. They will sometimes be 'wrong'. Does that matter? What does it mean to say that an AI is 98% correct on this task? What does it mean to say that the models are getting better, or that they're the worst they'll ever be?

I think it is a category error to say that the models are getting better, as though that answers the question. It's true, yes, that they are getting better, but only in the sense that the error rate is reducing, not in the sense that it goes away....

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