5 Days Out I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them - My Latest Video On The 2024 Election With Tom BonierWelcome New Subscribers!/When We Vote, We Win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Happy Thursday all. 5 days of hard work left until victory. I ask two things of you today:
Tomorrow we get the final jobs report before Election Day. Here is what I wrote in response to the last jobs report:
The Harris campaign is out with a closing video derived from her remarkable speech on Tuesday. Please watch and share widely through your networks.  Here is video of the VP entering her Madison, WI rally last night. Sound up peeps!  You can watch the full Madison rally here and catch all the the closing weekend rallies on the campaign’s YouTube channel. Also be sure to watch Harris-Walz Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon’s week out “State Of The Race” video. It is very good. The campaign’s barnstorming of the battlegrounds continues today: Vice President Harris will campaign in Nevada and Arizona, with rallies in Reno, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. The Las Vegas and Phoenix rallies are part of the “When We Vote, We Win” concert series and will feature performances by Maná in Las Vegas and Los Tigres del Norte in Phoenix. Jennifer Lopez will also provide remarks at the rally in Las Vegas. Governor Tim Walz will deliver remarks at a Harris-Walz campaign event in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, to encourage Pennsylvanians to vote early for Vice President Harris and Democrats up and down the ballot. In the afternoon, the Governor will make a local stop in Erie, Pennsylvania. Second Gentleman Emhoff will attend the Vice President’s remarks at the “When We Vote, We Win” concert and rally in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mrs. Walz will hold events in four different media markets in Georgia. She will start the day with a reproductive freedom early voting event in Cobb County, Georgia with Rep. Lucy McBath and President of Planned Parenthood Alexis McGill Johnson. Mrs. Walz will then hold canvass launch events in Macon, Georgia and Albany, Georgia, before ending the day at a Halloween “Trunk or Treat” event in Valdosta, Georgia, the southernmost media market in the state. She will personally knock on doors after the Macon canvass launch. On drives between stops, Mrs. Walz will be calling undecided voters in Georgia – as well as call into radio stations in Marquette, Michigan, Atlanta, Georgia, and Eau Claire, Wisconsin. My Latest Take On The 2024 Election - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them - First up is the video recording of the talk Tom Bonier and I gave to Hopium paid subscribers last night. You can catch it above. We kick off with 25 minutes of an overview of the national political landscape and then answered questions for another 35 minutes or so. As I say in my close at the end of the video, we’ve done a lot of good together over the last 20 months, but our most important work is the work we are going to do in the next five days to turn this close election into a victory for all of us. Here’s my rough calculation of national polls released since Monday, October 14th broken down by independent polls and those affiliated with right-wing and Republican organizations.
There has been a lot of battleground state polling this week, and much of it has been good for us. Here’s a new set of YouGov polls (2 other independent polls has NC tied this week):
CNN has released 5 battleground state polls in the last 48 hours. Note that CNN’s last national poll had the national popular vote tied:
Here is today’s Washington Post more highly curated battleground state polling averages. While it is close, we win this election.
Where is the election today? I still think we are up by 2-4 points nationally and in a stronger position in the Electoral College - despite what the averages and forecasters say. The VP is far better liked, and likeable, something that matters to late breaking voters. We’ve closed the gap on the economy with Trump - a huge campaign achievement - and the economy itself is doing incredibly well right now. We are closing strong. They are closing ugly, really, really ugly. A flurry of red wave polls pushed the polling averages down in the past few weeks and tipped them to Trump - illegitimately in my view. Since late August 31 right-affiliated organizations have released close to 100 polls into the averages. In the past few days greater MAGA has begun a new, intense effort to flood the battleground state polls in a desperate attempt to show momentum for Trump at the end. Don’t be fooled. Read more about this illicit effort in this recent New Republic article, my recent post and catch Trump admitting that some of these red wave polls showing him ahead are fraudulent. Our daily reminder:
Why is Trump headed to NM and VA today? It’s clearly a weird, desperate stunt. According to public polling neither state is in play. To me it signifies 2 things: 1) they think they are losing and have to try to put more states in play 2) they know when he campaigns in the battlegrounds it hurts them and they are hiding him for at least a day. To be very clear - these events are not what a winning campaign would do right now. Heading into the final days we should be pleased with the early vote. Using TargetEarly we know that despite a huge new Republican commitment to the early vote we are running even with them compared to 2020 in the battleground states, and are consistently running 6-7 points better in the battlegrounds than the national early vote. This meaningful overperformance of the national early vote in the battlegrounds is similar to what we saw in 2022 and a sign of the strength and superiority of our ground game and our ability to create two elections. We are running ahead of our 2020 early vote results in GA, MI, NE-2 and WI. That’s really good. While Rs got off to a strong start in the sunbelt, we are closing the gap vs. 2020 in AZ, NC, NV - another sign of our organizational strength. Note the improvement in these three states since 10/23/24:
We’ve seen really meaningful improvement in all three of these states in the past week. In PA it is clear that many Dems have chosen to skip the mail-only system and vote on Election Day. So the early vote data isn’t all that helpful there this year. We are doing fine so far, but PA is going to be an Election Day state, like the old days.
Taking a step back, Dems are matching our 2020 results in the battlegrounds despite the current battleground electorate being older, whiter, more male and more rural than at this point in 2020. This is really good. Next, as we expect both the R and unaffiliated vote to be more Democratic this time, it is very likely we are today running ahead of 2020 in the 7 battleground states. This too is really good. Additionally, we are starting to see large Harris leads in polls of those who have voted early, 20+ points. So we are 20+ points in an electorate that is only currently 2 points more Dem today, and 7 points more R than 2020. It’s very encouraging, and suggests there has been a meaningful surge of Republicans and independents voting for Harris in the early vote so far.
Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - 5 days of voting left everyone - let’s keep working it! My one big ask today - help us meet at least one of our outstanding fundraising goals below, with a particular nod to helping Harris-Walz and any of the ways we are targeting the battleground states. Tester got some good polling this week, and his opponent is caught now in a very serious scandal, having clearly lied about being wounded in combat. Not giving up there. I want to thank all of you who are self-reporting on all your remarkable work across the country in our paid subscriber daily chat Postcards, canvassing, back yard phonebank parties - you all are doing the work we need to do to win. 80m postcards are hitting now, and NYC has a postcard shortage because of all of you. Thank you everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Some have asked - are donations this late useful? Yes they are. My advice is that whatever you are going to give this year give it no later than Saturday night. Late money goes directly into augmenting paid advertising and reaching more voters. So yes it matters. Let’s keep working it people! Harris-Walz, Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:
Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!
Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:
Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:
Great work everyone. We are making real progress here. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day! Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you. Let’s bring it home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Thursday, October 31, 2024
5 Days Out I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them - My Latest Video On The 2024 Election With Tom Bonier
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