Winning The House With Derek Tran (CA-45), Q3 Filing Period Ends Tomorrow, Whine And Waffle, More On Red Wave PollingWelcome New Subscribers!/Call, Postcard For Adam Gray (CA-13) Thursday!
Happy Sunday all. With voting season in full swing now we will be seven days a week for the duration. On Tuesday we have the VP debate. Going to be an another important moment in this extraordinary election. Tomorrow is the last major fundraising filing deadline for all Federal candidates. Whatever money you have left to donate this year please try to give before midnight tomorrow night. Campaigns can make more use of money they get now than in late October. As you know I offer you a variety of ways to support our candidate and state parties (below). Whether you choose one of these or have some other campaign you want to help just do what you can. The money really matters now, as does the volunteering as we work to drive the early vote. Off all our Hopium-backed projects my biggest ask is for the North Carolina Democratic Party. Due to Helene’s devastation, their job, already hard, got harder and more expensive. You can donate to Anderson Clayton and the good people of the Tar Heel State here. Send them some love today. The Harris campaign ran a new ad on the big Georgia-Alabama college football game last night. It has one of my favorite lines of the campaign so far:
 This morning I’m excited to share my new interview with Derek Tran who is running to flip CA-45 (it’s above). He is one of the four new candidates we’ve added to our endorsed list, and as you will see, he is a great candidate with an inspiring story. You can donate to Derek directly here, volunteer, learn more or give to all 15 of our Hopium-backed candidates who are the most likely to turn red House seats blue. Derek got some good public polling this week and if we keep working hard we can win this Southern California seat! I head into this new week as I began this one - optimistic and resolute. We lead in the national polls, are closer to 270 in the battlegrounds, got some good polling in NE and OH yesterday, got very good youth and black polling too, and due to our financial, volunteer, enthusiasm and crowd size advantages we should be able to close stronger than them. Our team is better, more powerful and far more popular. As I say in my new video on the election, in every way imaginable right now I would much rather be us than them. Reposting now some of our highlights from what was an action-packed week of politics for your Sunday reading, watching and listening pleasure:
The Vice President’s Statement On The Death of Hassan Nasrallah -
It’s Time To Acknowledge Red Wave Polling As A New Form Of Partisan Political Activity - One of the central arguments we made in our battle against the red wave in 2022 was that the explosion of GOP and right wing aligned polling made the polling averages unreliable. As I wrote to you on Thursday, it turned out to be true as the polling averages, gamed by a flood of right aligned polls, told us, falsely, that a red wave was coming. This problem of there just being too much right-aligned polling is still with us in 2024 and it may about to become a serious problem. On Thursday I wrote to you that I felt we had already seen evidence of some early testing of right-aligned “narrative polling” in NC and OH in recent days. Here is a tweet of one of these pollsters bragging to a right wing polling propagandist that their new “poll” had just pushed the 538 polling average to Trump.
In that Thursday post I also argued that a Republican pollster has just dropped a favorable poll for Moreno in Ohio to help blunt the negative fallout from a new ugly video that had surfaced, Every poll taken this cycle and all our internal polls have Sherrod Brown up a few points. In this new red wave poll all of a sudden Moreno was up. Yesterday the NYT found Brown up 4, where all other polls have been for months. It was a confirmation of the fuckery at play by RMG in Ohio last week, and also in Montana where somehow their new poll showed the race shifting 12 points to Jon Tester’s opponent in one month!!!!! So how many polls and pollsters that we see in the averages have GOP or right-wing affiliations? I count at least 19:
The state where we have seen the most of right wing polling activity in recent months is North Carolina, a must win Trump state. Using 538, there have been 24 polls released in North Carolina with interviews conducted since August 31st. 12 of those 24- half - have GOP or right wing affiliations, including that one, Quantus, which bragged about moving the averages to Trump (for transparency, I am counting polling by The Hill/Emerson as independent, and left off Focaldata and Activote as I just don’t know enough about them). In the 12 independent polls Harris leads in 6, is tied in 4 and trails in 2. In the 12 red wave polls she leads in 2 and trails in 10. The red wave polls show an election two plus points more Republican than the independent polls. That is enough to push the NC average so it looks like Trump leads there even though in the independent polls she leads. Given what happened in 2022, it would have been wise for the polling aggregators and forecasters to acknowledge the rise of an entirely new type of polling, right wing “narrative polling.” There are independent media and academic polls, partisan polls by campaigns and party committees, and now a third kind, right-aligned polling. While there is a smattering of polls from Democratic and progressive aligned sources, they aren’t many, nowhere near the level of what we are now seeing coming from the right. This close to an election spending money on anything other than things that help you win is an extravagance. Thus the right must view spending so much money on these polls as something that helps them win, which makes them a new form of partisan political activity not “polling” as we understand it. It is time for national political commentators to acknowledge this new third type of poll - the right wing narrative poll - and to start breaking their data out from the independent polls. To be clear breaking out the right wing polls from the averages in 2022 was a central way I got the election right when so many got it wrong. The late independent polls in 2022 showed a close, competitive election. The right wing narrative polls showed an election 2-3-4 points more Republican - a different election - and there were enough of those polls in the battlegrounds to move the averages to a red wave not a close election. Without those polls it is very unlikely we would have been talking about a red wave in the closign weeks of the election. Given that the project to move the averages and create a narrative the election was slipping away from Democrats was successful in 2022, we should anticipate that the right will try it again this year. What would that look like? We get a series of polls from these pollsters showing the election moving towards Trump perhaps 2-3 points in key battleground states, maybe nationally too. The polling averages will then start to move a little (see NC above). The right then declares their strongman is using his “strength” (not money, ads, debate performance, ground game, external events, the early vote or any other plausible explanation) to win the election, and that it is slipping away from her. The whole right wing noise machine then amplifies, and presto - another red wave! Trump is winning and strong, Harris is losing and weak. Energizing for them, demobilizing for us. Look at what one of the leaders of these right-aligned pollsters, Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar, told us yesterday:
Again, we may not see a reprise of these red wave tactics pushing the polling averages this year as they did in 2022. But we shouldn’t be surprised if it starts or shy about pointing out the fuckery taking place - particularly when they are telling us it is coming. Today we had the spectacle of a Brazilian based polling outfit, AtlasIntel, dropping a wild set of battleground polls showing Trump winning the Electoral College. Last week they dropped a national poll showing Trump up 3 while the 538 average has Harris up 3 and she’s been up 4-5 points in many of the legacy media polls. We have literally dozens and dozens of polls showing her up 2-3-4 points with comparable data in the states. The data has these last few weeks has been remarkably harmonious. The idea that some foreign firm that does not poll here regularly can just drop into our election this late with clear outlier data and be taken seriously shows how ridiculous the whole polling-industrial complex has become. There simply is no reason given all the other polling we have to treat this AtlasIntel poll like a serious poll but we’ve been told all polls are legit and we should just throw ‘em in the averages. Of course as there are Electoral College Maps being generated from the data showing Trump winning already being hyped on the right the campaign to red wave 2024 may have already begun. Here’s Polymarket affiliated Interactive Polls showing Trump not just leading but the “Winner.”
There is another reason Trump and his allies need some set of polls showing him winning this fall. If polls show VP Harris winning, we have a very strong early vote as we did in 2022, and then she wins it will be much harder for him to contest the election results. Trump needs polls showing him winning to try once again cheat his way into the White House. So folks what do we do about it all? Support our candidates, outhustle them, run up the score in the early vote and go win this election, together. Hard Work Is Good Work/Winning It In October - Tomorrow is the last major filing deadline for campaigns across the country so these next few days really matter my friends. Whatever you got left in your pocket try to give it before the end of the month on Tuesday night. Money now is better than money in late October for all these races. Do what you can, and I will note that this community has really stepped up in recent days. We are moving a lot of money into these races and state parties - $50,000 to $60,000 a day - thank you all! Team Hopium just keeps stepping up! Harris-Walz For President - $1,079,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:
Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:
Ways you can do even more:
Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 118,000 strong in our community down the home stretch! Keep working hard all. For when we fight, we win! - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Sunday, September 29, 2024
Winning The House With Derek Tran (CA-45), Q3 Filing Period Ends Tomorrow, Whine And Waffle, More On Red Wave Poll…
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