Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 531

NO. 531   FREE EDITION   TUE 12 MAR 2024
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My Work

Notes on AI Bias

Machine learning is the new centre of tech, and like all big new things there are issues. 'AI bias' is much-discussed right now: machine learning finds patterns, but sometimes it finds the wrong one, and it can be hard to tell. LINK

News

Banning Tiktok in the USA, for real this time?

Remember when Donald Trump tried to ban Tiktok, or maybe get Oracle to buy it? That effort collapsed with typical ineptitude, but the underlying issue didn't go away. The USA has foreign ownership laws for TV, but Tiktok is as big as TV now, and a major vector for news in particular, and though TikTok's CEO lives in Singapore, Bytedance is Chinese, and like all Chinese companies it is ultimately obliged to do what the government there says. Does it put its thumb on the scale of the content recommendation engines? It could.

So, after years of building pressure and concern, the US now has a bill that would let the US president designate companies controlled by 'foreign adversary countries' and force their divestment. Will that happen? I'm not a political analyst. How big would that deal be, and who could buy Tiktok? Bytedance is a private company with no public financials, but the last valuation was apparently at $225bn. LINK, COVERAGE, VALUATION

New models

OpenAI showed the way, but lots of people are following, and not just Google and Meta: there's a whole middle tier of startups with competitive LLMs now. Microsoft invested in Mistral (a French startup!) last week, and this week Anthropic released the latest version of its 'Claude' suite of models, which apparently benchmark ar par or ahead of GPT4, at least on some benchmarks (there are so many LLM benchmarks that I need an LLM to summarise them all). As is now the trend, it's split into three tiers, trading power against price: Haiku, Sonnet and Opus (presumably the most powerful of all will be Jean-Claude). And Inflection's 'Pi' model is also close to launch (this company is founded by Mustafa Suleyman, previously co-founder of Deepmind). CLAUDE, COVERAGE, INFLECTION

Hiring biases

Unsurprisingly, if you use ChatGPT and other LLMs to summarise and screen CVs for hiring, their analysis will reflect the patterns and biases that are in the training data, so they will tend to down-rank (for example) black or female candidates. Amazon found some similar issues with an experimental AI system back in 2018: Amazon had been more likely to hire men in the past, so the system inferred that men were better candidates (and inferred gender from subtle differences in wording).

We had a long conversation about AI bias at around that time: there a naive view that 'maths isn't biased' - yes, well done, but are you sure you know what's in the training data? The inverse, equally naive view is that you can fix this by changing the diversity of the team building the system: if you add more women to the team they may be more likely to spot bias against women, yes, but no more likely to spot that your image recognition tool tends to look at images of grassy hills and say 'sheep'. The biases aren't about human diversity per se - the issue is much more structural than that. LINK, AMAZON

The week in AI

The Indian government issued a very odd (non-binding) advisory that all AI models need pre-approval from the government, and need to be certain they do not have any bias or discrimination. You cannot guarantee deterministic results from non-deterministic systems, and you can't require individual, one-at-a-time pre-approval for every new product and feature in the tech industry. LINK

Sergey Brin spent an hour at an AI event in SF talking, amongst other things, about Gemini's launch hiccups. LINK

AMD has designed an AI chip intended to be slow enough for the US government to let it be sold to China. The US said no. LINK

OpenAI fired back at Elon Musk's lawsuit, producing emails that appear to show that Musk understood and was in favour of the principle that OpenAI would need to become a for-profit. Does anyone really expect this to go anywhere? LINK

There's been some chatter recently that AI-generated spam is a bigger problem in search results, and this week Google rolled out a new search model update intended to tackle that. LINK

Everything is hacked, French edition

Apparently the French medical insurance system was hacked, leaking some level of personal data for 33m people, over half the population. LINK

Apple's first EU fine!

Welcome to the big tech club! The EU fined Apple €2bn over the long-running complaint that it didn't let Spotify sell a subscription in its app nor tell people where they could buy one. I've always been (mostly) on Spotify's side here - unlike Epic, Spotify didn't just not want to pay Apple's commission, it couldn't - and there was no way that this situation was good for Apple's customers. On the other hand, as Apple pointed out at bitter length, this didn't actually seem to hurt Spotify at all. LINK, APPLE

Browser ballots 2.0

As part of the DMA, Apple and Google have introduced choice screens forcing EU smartphone users to pick a default web browser from a long and randomly-sorted list. (Note - this is separate to being able to install a third party browser, which was always possible, and from browsers being able to use their own rendering engines on iOS, which is another new requirement).

Microsoft had to do this on Windows in the EU from 2009 to 2014, but it had little to no observable effect. Chrome was launched at the same time, but took off globally, not just in the EU: it turned out that you didn't need a choice screen to get people to change their defaults if there was a genuinely better alternative. It's hard to see why things would be different this time: the default browsers on each device are already pretty great (unlike IE!), which makes this most likely to be just an annoying waste of time, and a source of support calls from confused users who accidentally tapped on the Onion Browser. APPLE, ANDROID, WINDOWS

Apple flip-flops on Epic

Epic opened a new developer account to make an app store for games on the iPhone in the EU (NB: the iPad isn't covered by the DMA): Apple gave it the account, then withdrew permission, and then, when the EU expressed interest, allowed it again.

On one level this was hilarious. Epic did lie to Apple and break the developer agreement, deliberately and openly, as a PR stunt around Fortnite, and so Apple said that meant it couldn't be trusted to run a third-party app store. Cue lots of blustering and quotes on both sides until Epic promised, cross their heart and hope to die, not to break its word this time, and Apple pretended to believe that. But coming after Apple's u-turn last week on web apps, this looks a bit chaotic. Is Apple floating balloons to see where the EU will draw the line? After all, the DMA does say that Apple has to preserve security and privacy. Or is Apple in denial? TERMINATED, RENEWED

About

What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst. Mostly, that means trying to work out what questions to ask.

Ideas

The big design jobs freak-out. LINK

Useful FT piece on the degree to which the EU, with the DMA and DSA, is trying to micromanage tech companies and second-guess detailed product decisions in ways we haven't really seen before, in this or other industries. LINK

"Chidi Ebule keeps at least 10 payment machines on the check-out counter of his grocery store in Lagos" LINK

WARC on the state of retail media. LINK

What happened to Twitch? Remember when it was the new YouTube? LINK

Using AI in cellular research. LINK

Caselaw Access: 48m pages of US court papers for training AI. LINK

80% of cargo cranes at US ports are built by one Chinese company, ZPMC, and now the US has found cellular modems in them that were not, perhaps, supposed to be there. Modern cranes often know what containers they're picking up and where they're going, and that might include containers for the US Navy. Last month the White House announced plans to invest $20bn over 5 years in cranes from a US subsidiary of Mitsui, as a replacement. LINK

Life is tough in the world of D2C aggregators. LINK

Outside interests

When super-yachts make rescues at sea. LINK

When Europeans arrived in the Americas, they (unknowingly) brought diseases that the existing population had no immunity to, and that wiped out up to 90% of the population (there's much debate about the exact numbers). The resulting reforestation as farmland was abandoned (and the end of burning) was so large that you can see it in Antarctic ice cores. LINK

The story of the Singapore Airlines Concorde. LINK

Be skeptical of online polls. LINK

Data

Indus Valley has a useful report on tech in India. LINK

Food delivery in China was over $200bn last year. LINK

Delivery Hero reported €1bn of ad revenue at 70% margins in 2023. LINK

Meta reported that ads from Chinese companies were 10% of revenue last year, which would be $13.4bn: the WSJ reports that Temu was $2bn of that. LINK

Local music is way more popular on streaming than the industry expected. LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

Not talking about AI

Tech has been taken over by generative AI, and the only question seems to be whether this is the once-a-generation platform shift or something bigger. One could almost forget that all the things we cared about before the pandemic and before ChatGPT are still there, and still big, and still full of interesting questions.  

'Retail media' - advertising on retailers' websites and apps - could be $130bn this year (Amazon did almost $50 in 2023, and perhaps more cashflow than AWS), which makes it half the size of search and bigger than all linear TV advertising. All sorts of unexpected companies have suddenly realised they have inventory and targeting data, and scope for revenue at massively higher margins than they're used to. When does the free money stop growing, and what other markets is it coming from? 

Conversely, software-based TV ads (smart TVs and apps adding ads to linear and on-demand) was 30% of the US TV ad market last year...

THIS IS A PREVIEW FROM THE PREMIUM EDITION - PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS GET THE COMPLETE COLUMN EVERY WEEK. YOU SHOULD UPGRADE.
Upgrade to Premium
You're getting the Free edition. Subscribers to the Premium edition got this two days ago on Sunday evening, together with an exclusive column, complete access to the archive of over 500 issues, and more.
 

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