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New NYT Poll Shows a Blue Wave Coming to Red America

Democrats are tied in Kansas, and that's not even the worst news for Republicans

Dan Pfeiffer

Oct 4

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The bad polls keep coming for Republicans

On Saturday morning, The New York Times ruined brunch for Republican candidates and operatives by dropping a series of polls showing Democrats leading in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska, and essentially tied in Iowa and Kansas. Yes, you read that right. Democrats are tied in Kansas, a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years!

Here are the results:

AK: Peltola 50%, Sullivan 43%
TX: Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%
OH: Brown 49%, Husted 46%
KS: Hamilton 45%, Marshall 45%
IA: Hinson 48%, Turek 47%

You should take every poll with a grain of salt, but the New York Times/Siena is one of the highest-rated pollsters, and because it comes from one of the most influential media outlets in the world, it has disproportionate influence on the political conversation.

From the outset, the Democratic path to a Senate majority was narrow and treacherous. In addition to holding Dem seats in battleground states like Michigan and Georgia, Democrats had to beat Susan Collins in Maine, flip North Carolina, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and then win two seats in states that Trump won by double digits.

These polls show Democrats are well on their way to doing that. If they’re correct, a massive Blue Wave is coming in November. The shift since the 2024 election, when people were talking about a permanent GOP majority, is stunning.

As a notorious pessimist/doomer, I went digging into the poll to find some bad news for Democrats and dilute the uncut hopium, but honestly, the more you dig, the worse things look for Republicans.

1. A Wholesale Rejection of Trump

There is a very simple reason that Republicans are struggling across the country. Voters have turned on Trump. They don’t like him. They don’t think he has done a good job. They believe he broke his promises, and they loathe the war in Iran...