How Much Has the Iran War Cost You?Plus: a $1 trillion AI sell-off and why Bumble sold for 90% less than its IPO value
3Americans are almost 3x more likely to purchase an audiobook read by a British narrator than an American one.
As Inflation Surges, Trump’s Approval Hits a Record Low Two Weeks Before the MidtermsInflation is now running at almost double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, and producer prices rose 6.3% — the largest increase in four years. Wholesale energy prices jumped 11% month over month, accounting for more than 80% of the rise in goods prices in the producer price index (PPI). Gas and diesel prices have increased roughly 34% and 72% year over year, respectively. These increases are a knock-on effect of Trump’s war in Iran. The conflict has made transporting oil from the Middle East much more expensive, driving up costs across the entire supply chain. Renting a supertanker to carry oil to Asia from the Persian Gulf costs about $1.4 million a day, according to Bloomberg. Prewar, it was about $60,000. Between inflation, military spending, and higher interest rates, the Iran war has cost the average American household $2,000, according to economist Mark Zandi. Earnings haven’t risen fast enough to offset these higher costs. Americans’ earnings, adjusted for inflation, have declined for six consecutive months. Meanwhile, savings that aren’t invested are losing value. At 3.7% annual inflation, after just five years, a $100,000 bank account balance would lose more than $16,000 in purchasing power. Lower-income Americans are struggling. According to a new Pew study, more than 70% have had difficulty paying for food, housing, medical care, or daily transportation in the past year, and almost 80% do not have enough money to cover expenses for three months in an emergency. The president’s priorities are clear. Since President Trump returned to office, the S&P 500 has increased 31%, S&P 500 earnings have increased 39%, and inflation-adjusted wages have increased 0%. This is tough timing for Republicans, with the midterms just over two weeks away. Sixty-four percent of registered voters now say they disapprove of Trump’s job performance, a new record, and 70% disapprove of his handling of the economy. The president’s approval rating among Gen Z is even worse. Three-quarters of Americans under age 30 disapprove of his performance, and 8 in 10 disapprove of his handling of the economy.
Yesterday, I had lunch at my son’s grandparents’ place in Florida. On the drive back, I lost track of how many giant ads for the Democrats I passed. They’re called gas prices.
This inflation report is an important reminder of two things: voting and investing. You need to take money out of your paycheck and put it in the stock market.
CoreWeave’s Debt Spiral Sent Shock Waves Through the AI MarketNeocloud company CoreWeave’s debt fell to distressed levels last week, sending shock waves through the AI ecosystem. On Wednesday, its bonds traded below 80 cents on the dollar. That price means investors doubt CoreWeave can repay the roughly $50 billion it has borrowed to build data centers.
CoreWeave’s stock fell 15%, and the sell-off spread to other companies that depend on AI spending. Micron, Nebius, and SK Hynix fell 10%, 15%, and 25%, respectively. Oracle and Nvidia each fell 5%. In total, nearly $1 trillion in market value disappeared. That is almost as much as the entire S&P 500 lost in the week after the U.S. attacked Iran in February 2026. The sell-off reflects doubts that go beyond CoreWeave. Analysts issued new dire warnings about the growing risks of the AI trade:
New data from Ramp cast doubts on the sustainability of demand for expensive AI models. The top business spenders on AI allocated 3% less per employee to the technology last month than they did in July. One reason may be the rise of open-weight models, which anyone can download free. On OpenRouter, open-weight models made up 60% of the tokens U.S. users consumed in August, up from 26% in September 2025. Most of that volume comes from Chinese models. American companies are stepping up their own open-weight efforts. Nvidia released updated versions of its own open models last week, and Meta and Apple announced that Meta’s newest open-weight model will be able to run locally on Apple’s Mac Studio desktops. This means developers can run it on their own hardware without paying an AI lab for each request or renting chips from a cloud provider.
Public investors have started pricing in increased risk, but that repricing hasn’t reached the private markets. Let me explain:
I don’t think the Anthropic IPO happens this year, unless they cut the valuation drastically.
Bumble Just Sold for 90% Less Than It Was Worth at Its IPODating app Bumble is going private. The company has agreed to a $1.3 billion acquisition by Ithaca Holdings — a 90% discount to its $14 billion market cap after IPO’ing in 2021. Ithaca Holdings, which was formed to improve ailing businesses with AI, has a lot of work to do to revive Bumble. The company’s revenue has declined year over year for eight consecutive quarters, and its paying-user base has shrunk sequentially for seven. In August, the company ended its “women-message-first” rule, which was its original differentiator — but even that wasn’t enough to reenergize demand. Bumble’s competitor, Match Group, has also lost paying users for the past three quarters, and its stock has declined more than 70% over the past five years. Dating apps are difficult businesses to run and, for many, difficult products to use. A study of online dating found that the more profiles people encounter, the more rejectionist and pessimistic they get about finding a match. Having too many potential mates actually makes it harder to find one. It’s also gotten more expensive. Over the past decade, the price of dating app subscriptions has increased by as much as 200%. Churn data reflects user frustration. Sixty-five percent of dating apps are deleted within a month, and one-third of Tinder users delete the app in under 24 hours.
Despite faltering finances and growing user discontent, dating apps have unquestionably changed how Americans find romantic partners. One-third of couples who got married in 2025 met their partners through online dating sites or apps, up from 25% in 2021.
The most beneficial thing anyone can do is put energy into relationships: friendships, mentorships, parenting, romance. That starts with people meeting in real life. My controversial take is:
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