Thank you for reading Message Box. This is a community of more than 160,000 activists, organizers, political junkies, and others who care about our democracy. I’m privileged to write for such an incredible group. Special thanks to our paid subscribers, who make it all possible. If you’re not yet one, I hope you’ll consider upgrading to support one of the few outlets not owned by a MAGA billionaire. Are the Polls Too Good to Be True?Midterm polls have a better track record than you think, but the Blue Wave depends on the voters polls have missed before
I just spent the weekend in Austin, where we did a Pod Save America show at the Texas Tribune Festival and knocked doors with the Travis County Democrats for James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa. Every Democrat I spoke with was incredibly excited about the election, but almost uncomfortable with the good news. It’s been a long time since a Democrat led in the polls in a Texas statewide race. Even Beto O’Rourke never led the polling average in 2018. Everyone said some version of the same thing: “I feel optimistic… but are the polls right?” And it’s not just Texas. Democrats across the country are worried that the polls are going to break our hearts. Here’s Nate Silver’s polling average for the major Senate races:
The idea that Democrats are ahead in red states like Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas, and within striking distance in Kansas, seems almost impossible to fathom. So the polls must be wrong, right? It’s a fair question. In 2016 and 2020, the polls pointed to big Democratic wins and missed because they undersampled Trump voters. And even though the polls were largely right in 2024, many Democrats felt misled because Trump won by more, in more places, than most people expected. Is that going to happen again? Is the Big Blue Wave a mirage? Here are some thoughts on how to think about the polls over the next four weeks... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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