Thank you for reading Message Box. This is a community of more than 160,000 activists, organizers, political junkies, and others who care about our democracy. I’m privileged to write for such an incredible group. Special thanks to our paid subscribers, who make it all possible. If you’re not yet one, I hope you’ll consider upgrading to support one of the few outlets not owned by a MAGA billionaire. We are now just 40 days from Election Day. Your TVs and your feeds are filled with ads. Several polls drop every day. Some states are already voting. The election is in full swing. And it’s never been harder to follow politics. There is so much drama, so much propaganda, so many polls, and an avalanche of ads showing up via our personal algorithms. I say this as someone whose literal job is to follow politics: it’s never been harder to separate the signal from the noise. To know what matters and what doesn’t. To know what to actually worry about and what to dismiss. To help you make sense of what’s going on, I’m going to do periodic, detailed updates on the battle for the House and the Senate. Where things stand. Which races to watch and what I’m watching for. Subscribe for all these updates and my analysis of the midterms and beyond. 1. Trump Is a Massive Drag on RepublicansIt’s hard to overstate how unpopular Trump is. His approval rating is at an all-time low, and his disapproval is at an all-time high.
On top of losing the public, Trump is unlikely to have the turnout machine he’s relied on in the past. On Election Day in 2018, 2020, and 2024, Trump’s strong approval among Republicans was near 70%. Today, it’s under 50%... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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