Thank you for reading Message Box. This is a community of more than 160,000 activists, organizers, political junkies, and others who care about our democracy. I’m privileged to write for such an incredible group. Special thanks to our paid subscribers, who make it all possible. If you’re not yet one, I hope you’ll consider upgrading to support one of the few outlets not owned by a MAGA billionaire. Thoughts on the Michigan Poll Freaking Out DemocratsWhy the panic is understandable, why it's overblown, and how Abdul El-Sayed wins anyway.
When this election cycle started, Democrats were pretty damn confident about the Michigan Senate race. Everyone assumed they would win and hold the seat. If there was a Democratic seat to worry about, it was Jon Ossoff’s in Georgia. Well, now Ossoff’s is seen as a shoo-in, and Democrats are panicking about Michigan. Or maybe I should put it this way: Democrats were nervous until a new Fox News poll dropped on Friday showing Republican Mike Rogers up by four points over Abdul El-Sayed — and now, based on my text messages and notes from Message Box readers, the panic is very real. I get it. El-Sayed’s electability (or lack thereof) was a major topic of discussion in the campaign. The pro-Haley Stevens side’s closing argument was that El-Sayed was uniquely vulnerable and could cost Democrats an otherwise safe seat. And now we have a poll that seems to prove that exact point. The path to the Senate gets dangerously narrow without Michigan. I went digging deep into the crosstabs and the history of candidates like El-Sayed to see how much the panic is warranted and to show how and why he should win this race. Wait, the Poll is from Fox News. Shouldn’t We Ignore It?...Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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