Good morning. If you’ve heard the word “Polymarket” more times this year than your own name, you’re not alone. Prediction markets are, quite simply, everywhere. They’re forming partnerships with major pro sports leagues, giving betting apps like DraftKings a scare, spoiling your favorite reality TV shows, and, well, getting some people sent to prison. Read on to become the expert at your next dinner party when someone inevitably mentions “Kalshi,” or use it as the topic of conversation at your Father’s Day celebration today to see who can predict what color tie Dad’s getting this year. |
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Prediction markets, which allow people to wager on the outcome of real-world events, have exploded in popularity in the past couple of years. It turns out, a lot of people were itching to bet on elections, the temperature in Kuala Lumpur, and how often Elon Musk might tweet in one week. Kalshi controls more than 90% of the US prediction market and has annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion. The growth is staggering. According to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from digital assets firm The Block, when you look at Kalshi and the other big dog, Polymarket, their combined global trading volume was:
- $4.5 billion in September 2025.
- $24~ billion in April 2026.
Like the TV at your grandparents’ house, that high level of volume is hard to ignore. Investor interest drove Kalshi’s valuation from $11 billion in December to $22 billion about six months later, per the Wall Street Journal. And Polymarket, reportedly valued at $350 million in 2024, was recently in talks to raise money at a $15 billion valuation, according to The Information. Do bettors actually make any money?Kalshi and Polymarket have millions of users, but only a tiny percentage make it big. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that:
- Sixty-seven percent of Polymarket’s profits go to just 0.1% of accounts.
- The average Polymarket user has lost between $1 and $100. The bottom 10% of users are down about $4,000 each.
- For every Kalshi user who makes money, there are 2.9 unprofitable users, the company said.
The wager gap: The average prediction market user skews young, and 71% are men, according to a Morning Consult study. Sports, cryptocurrency, and politics are the hottest topics, per Pew. The future of predictions: Investment firm Bernstein forecast that prediction market trading volume will hit $1 trillion (yes, with a “t”) per year by 2030.—BC |
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Jesus returning this year is possibly the only prediction market wager that no one can exploit with insider information. That’s why platforms that aspire to harness the wisdom of the crowds to predict whether Little Joe the gorilla will escape the zoo again can’t catch a break from insider trading scandals. In some cases, there have been consequences for the alleged perpetrators:
- A US Army Special Forces soldier will stand trial for allegedly making $400k on Polymarket trades using his classified knowledge about plans to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
- A Google employee was recently charged with fraud for allegedly placing bets on Google’s most-searched terms, using his access to internal company data.
- Kalshi fined a MrBeast editor $20k for making wagers related to his employer’s videos.
But fishy trades that make experts and the public suspicious do not always result in investigations. For instance, Bloomberg reported that several well-timed Iran war wagers from multiple newly opened Polymarket accounts that seem to be connected generated $1 million in profits. Platforms are taking measures: Both Kalshi and Polymarket have fined and banned users for insider trading, and Kalshi will soon require users to share their employer information in order to make sensitive trades. But…critics say that’s not enough. A group of Democratic senators has called on the federal agency responsible for regulating prediction markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), to combat insider trading by limiting the types of bets allowed.—SK |
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The results of sports events and elections? The winners of music and film award shows? BOR-ING. Why put money down on things like that when you can bet on the types of markets that will have your friends starting a side group chat to discuss whether they should stage an intervention? Here are 10 of the weirder markets available on Kalshi and Polymarket:
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- Related: Will Jesus Christ return before GTA 6?
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be nominated for the best picture Academy Award?
- Will Jerome Powell be seen in public this month?
- Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
- Will Joe Rogan join 60 Minutes by June 30?
- Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
- Will President Trump say “gay” in June?
- Will there be a new pandemic in 2026?
- Nothing ever happens*
*If any of 13 highly unlikely things happens (one is Jeffrey Epstein still being alive) and you bet no, you win. If none of those things happen and you bet yes, you win. Be careful, though. Many of these markets are not as straightforward as they appear. Always read the fine print.—DL |
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Two of the hottest ways to lose money are a bit like the twins from The Parent Trap: They look the same, but one is traditional (sportsbooks) and the other is more inclined to roll around in the dirt (prediction markets). Sportsbooks: Sites like FanDuel and DraftKings are for betting on a winning team, the first player to score, and anything else game-related, from cricket to hockey. This type of wagering is typically regulated by state gambling laws, which is why it’s banned in some parts of the US but not others. Prediction markets: Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let you bet trade event contracts on pretty much anything, from movie castings to the timing of missile strikes. There’s no “house”—so your loss is another person’s gain, and the platforms make money from fees and commissions. Unlike sportsbooks, prediction markets are regulated like oil futures under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That oversight isn’t strict enough, according to some state regulators, lawmakers, casino lobbyists, and sports leagues. Tension point: Prediction markets are encroaching on sportsbooks’ territory. Huge chunks of Polymarket’s and Kalshi’s businesses come from contracts that closely resemble wagers you’d see on DraftKings and FanDuel. Prediction markets are also available in states where sportsbooks are illegal, but many lawmakers are trying to crack down.—ML |
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The government wants to know: Is The Traitors really a game? Does The Masked Singer involve luck, skill, or athletic ability? And, most importantly, should you be able to bet on Survivor? The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the independent government agency that regulates prediction markets, announced last week that it was seeking public comment to further define where reality game shows fall under its jurisdiction. And clarity is needed, because prediction markets have spoiled several high-profile reality show moments in recent months, frustrating producers and fans. Legendary Survivor host Jeff Probst told Variety that Kalshi and Polymarket are “incentivizing people to lie, cheat, and steal.” Insider trading could be to blame:
- Aubry Bracco, who won Survivor 50, had a 61% chance of winning the season before it premiered. By the time the finale aired, $32.7 million had been bet on Bracco, boosting her chances to 97%.
- Kalshi even sent a push notification to users before the finale with the message “Survivor S50 finale TONIGHT. Aubry’s at 97% — is the island already decided?”
- Kalshi said it investigated the bets and found no evidence of insider trading, which is banned on the site.
Other pretaped reality shows, like The Masked Singer and Next Level Chef, had their victors correctly predicted before their finales aired. It’s like whack-a-mole. Prediction markets are reaching every corner of entertainment: Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes earlier this year and correctly picked 26 out of the 28 winners.—MM |
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Americans have been placing bets on presidential elections since the 1880s, but it wasn’t until 1988 when three economists at the University of Iowa decided (over lunch beers) to introduce the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), an early prediction market that still exists today. Other private prediction markets like InTrade popped up in the early 2000s but were shut down once they attracted too much attention. But prediction markets have truly taken off in the last year and a half, after the 2024 presidential election and a federal court win that cleared the way for more election contracts. The Trump administration’s loosening of regulations (and the Trump family’s own investments) has also supercharged their adoption. Here’s a brief timeline of how we got here: Jan. 2025: Donald Trump Jr. announces he is joining Kalshi as a “strategic advisor.” March 2025: Robinhood launches a prediction market hub in its app with a Kalshi partnership. Aug. 2025: Donald Trump Jr. also joins Polymarket’s advisory board after his venture capital firm invested in the company. Oct. 2025: The NHL announces a partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi, the first major sports league partnership. Dec. 2025: Kalshi partners with CNN and CNBC. Dec. 2025: Polymarket officially relaunches in the US after a nearly four-year ban. Dec. 2025: DraftKings, the sports betting app, launches its own prediction market. Jan. 2026: Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal’s parent company, partners with Polymarket. March 2026: MLB announces a deal with Polymarket, becoming the largest US sports league to partner with a prediction market. March 2026: The US Senate introduces a bipartisan bill to ban prediction markets from offering sports contracts. April 2026: The CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to be the sole regulatory body of prediction markets. (State-level battles might head to the Supreme Court next year.) April 2026: A federal court rules that New Jersey cannot regulate Kalshi’s federally approved contracts, giving the industry a major court victory. April 2026: The Senate unanimously approves a ban on staff members trading on prediction markets.—MM |
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 Play: Market Movers, a free daily game from Time magazine, asks you to pick which outcomes are most likely.
Read: Statistical Thinking for the 21st Century is a free book about how to quantify reality.
Shake: The Magic 8 Ball is very online and ready to answer your questions.
Think: Four traits that define the most gifted predictors.
In memoriam: Pour one out for Paul the Octopus, the GOAT among animal oracles. Here’s a look back at his epic World Cup predictions.
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