A few weeks ago, I launched Message Box Pro — a subscription service for people who work in politics and communications at any level. Members get weekly strategy memos, messaging guidance, public opinion analysis, and direct access to me through weekly office hours. Visit messageboxpro.com to learn more or sign up below. At the beginning of 2026, J.D. Vance seemed like a lock to be the Republican nominee in two years. He was the sitting Vice President, and sitting Vice Presidents never lose. He was leading hypothetical 2028 primary polls by large margins, and he had the tacit support of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. Well, all of that is gone now. A recent Emerson poll showed Vance and Marco Rubio in a dead heat. Vance had 36% support and Rubio 35%. Back in August of 2025, Vance led Rubio 52% to 9%. Vance’s problems got even worse with a recent blockbuster New York Times story with this brutal lede:
This is a stunning fall for Vance. Even if the Emerson poll is an outlier (and it’s very possible that it is; their Democratic numbers in that poll were also unusual), other polling makes it clear that Vance’s numbers are coming down rapidly and Rubio’s are rising. As you can imagine, I find this very enjoyable. I have always found Vance to be a dangerously shameless politician who will do or say anything for the sake of fulfilling his bottomless well of ambition. I can’t help the schadenfreude (and you probably can’t either). Vance is repellent. Vance’s star is falling more rapidly than any presumed presidential frontrunner in recent memory, and what’s particularly notable is that there was no precipitating event. The more people saw Vance, the less they liked him, and then, as criticism and concerns about his abilities permeated the public conversation, his support seemed to collapse. I know we have midterms coming up in about five months, and it may seem irresponsible to dabble in speculation about 2028, but what’s happening to Vance offers object lessons about the state of politics. With that in mind, here are three reasons Vance is losing the GOP nomination before it even starts... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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