Thank you for reading Message Box. This is a community of more than 160,000 activists, organizers, political junkies, and others who care about our democracy. I’m privileged to write for such an incredible group. Special thanks to our paid subscribers, who make it all possible. If you’re not yet one, I hope you’ll consider upgrading to support one of the few outlets not owned by a MAGA billionaire. Welcome to this week’s mailbag. Lots of great questions and comments this week, so let’s get right into it. As a reminder, these mailbags run every Saturday for paid subscribers. If you want to get your question answered (and read my answers to all of the other questions), please consider becoming a paid subscriber. If you are already a subscriber, you can leave your question for next week in the comments below. Tom Toro
AnswerThis question goes to the heart of this newsletter and frankly, much of what I do. I like to believe that the value proposition of Message Box (and Message Box Pro) is that my takes and insights are grounded in data. I really try not to fire off from the hip, because that’s what 95% of all political commentators do. So asking whether the polling data that undergirds my analysis is accurate is a tough but very fair question. Beyond my work, so many Democrats want to know if they can trust the polls that show Trump sinking, Democrats winning on the generic ballot, and candidates like James Talarico and Mary Peltola in the hunt in deeply red states like Texas and Alaska. And after the giant poll misses in recent elections, it’s fair to ask — can we trust the polls?... Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app
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