A few weeks ago, I launched Message Box Pro — a subscription service for people who work in politics and communications at any level. Members get weekly strategy memos, messaging guidance, public opinion analysis, and direct access to me through weekly office hours. Visit messageboxpro.com to learn more or sign up below. Everyone Thinks Trump Won Last Night. They're WrongTrump's revenge tour just made the GOP's midterm problem a whole lot worse."
Trump ran on a platform of lowering costs, securing the border, and cracking down on immigration. But after a year and a half, it’s clear that’s not really why Trump ran for a return to the White House. We know he doesn’t give two shits about lowering costs. He says “affordability” is bullshit and calls the massive gas price spike “peanuts.” He obviously hates immigrants and enjoys the cruel and unconstitutional mass deportation. But Trump’s true passion — his top priority, the reason he gets out of bed in the morning — is to exact revenge on his enemies. (His home renovation projects, like the ballroom, might be a close second.) The Trump Administration has spent a ton of wasted effort over the last year trying to prosecute Trump’s enemies. They have tried and failed to indict Adam Schiff, Jerome Powell, Letitia James, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Trump did succeed in bullying his Justice Department into indicting former FBI Director Jim Comey for threatening him with a seashell photo. But the Comey case seems highly likely to be tossed by any sane judge. Where Trump had more success was in exacting political revenge on those who dared cross him. A few weeks ago, Trump’s political operation invested millions of dollars in defeating many of the Indiana State Senators who resisted his push to redraw their Congressional maps. Then, on Saturday, he helped defeat Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy for voting to impeach Trump in 2021. Trump endorsed Congresswoman Julia Letlow in the race, and she came in first in the primary. Cassidy dropped all the way to third, meaning he doesn’t make the runoff — a brutal and embarrassing result for an incumbent Senator who had spent the last few years debasing himself to get back into Trump’s good graces. Last night, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie lost his primary to a Trump-backed opponent. Trump has had Massie in his sights for years, but the thing that truly infuriated him was Massie’s work to force the release of the Epstein Files. All of these wins have been a display of brute political force, and it has impressed some in the media. As an example, here is the reaction to the Massie defeat from Rachel Bade, a former Politico Playbook author turned Substacker.
Yes, the incumbent President can influence primaries in his own party. And yes, Trump is getting rid of the people he believes wronged him. But spending nearly $20 million to defeat a Republican in a district Trump won by 35 points is not the flex people think it is. At best, this is a Pyrrhic victory — and Trump’s revenge tour is a big problem for the GOP moving forward. Short Term Wins, Medium Term ProblemsThe message to Republicans from Kentucky, Louisiana, and elsewhere is crystal clear — buck Trump and lose your job. The problem for Republicans on the ballot this fall is that the best way to keep their job might be to buck Trump. Trump’s approval rating is under 40%. He is embroiled in a deeply unpopular war. Voters hate the economy and blame Trump’s economic policies. The voters who made up his winning coalition have abandoned him. Trump is a massive drag on his party, and to win, many Republicans will need to show some independence from the deeply unpopular President. Trump won’t let them do that. Cross him, and he could turn on you. It’s too late for Trump to run a primary challenge against someone now, but he could attack them on social media, depressing turnout among the MAGA base, or cut off funding from his array of well-heeled Super PACs. We are seeing this dynamic play out in the Senate, where Trump is trying to force Republicans to take the politically suicidal step of spending upwards of a billion taxpayer dollars on his asinine ballroom vanity project. A smarter, savvier, less megalomaniacal leader would give his party the room to do what they need to win. Trump is incapable of doing so, and the GOP will pay a price for it. Texas TomfooleryEveryone with half a brain in American politics believes Republicans would have a much better chance of winning the Texas Senate race with John Cornyn at the top of the ticket. Cornyn is far from the best candidate, but he is better than scandal-plagued Ken Paxton. After Cornyn beat expectations in the primary, Trump said he would endorse a candidate, and everyone assumed that candidate would be Cornyn. But then Trump didn’t do it for weeks. He let Cornyn twist in the wind and let Paxton regain momentum. And then, yesterday morning, Trump said he would make an endorsement later in the day. Once again, everyone assumed it would be Cornyn. It was the logical move. A Trump endorsement would have likely put Cornyn over the top and positioned the GOP to hold onto a must-win Senate seat. But no. Trump stunned everyone, including Republican Senators, by endorsing Paxton. In the endorsement post, Trump explained that he passed on Cornyn because
Trump was more interested in seeking revenge than in helping Republicans hold onto the Senate. Revenge is a Two-Way StreetThe problem with defeating incumbents in primaries is that they don’t immediately leave Congress. They stay in their seats until January of next year. In addition to Cassidy, Trump also forced North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis into retirement. Now the two of them are hanging around the Senate, unburdened by any political need to appease Trump. Earlier this year, Tillis held up the nomination of Trump’s Fed Chair pick to force the DOJ to drop its bogus investigation into Jerome Powell. And yesterday, Cassidy flipped his vote to allow the War Powers Resolution on the Iran War to pass the Senate — a stunning move that will cause some real headaches for Trump. So sure, Trump has had some short-term wins in these primary contests. But these are wins that he, and the Republicans, will likely come to regret. Invite your friends and earn rewards
If you enjoy The Message Box, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe.
|
No comments:
Post a Comment