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Notes On Day 2 Of Our Mad King's New War

Stuart Stevens joins us at 10am EST Monday morning to discuss the war and much more.....

Simon Rosenberg

Mar 1

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Greetings all. Things are moving quickly but here a few things I’m focused on right now:

Oil Prices Are Rising - Yesterday we reviewed how due to Trump’s policies inflation is rising again in America, and that’s even with gas prices coming down. It’s why the price of oil is something to watch in the coming days. For if the conflict goes beyond a few days it is likely that oil prices will rise to the point where gas prices will start rising here again, further accelerating inflation. Trump, and his Republican allies, have a massive incentive to keep this short, declare victory, and get out.

Here’s Brent Crude as of this morning, via the FT:

Americans Have Started To Die - More reason for Trump to keep it short, declare victory, and get out:

No Imminent Threat - The regime has comically floated several different rationales for the attack on Iran in recent days - imminent threat to America, election interference, WMDs, evil leaders. The Washington Post is reporting this morning that the true rationale - other than wag the dog, change our domestic discourse, make him feel STRONG and MIGHTY again - may have been to help Israel and his Gulf Arab business partners weaken their regional adversary. Trump just decided to go for it:

President Donald Trump launched Saturday’s wide-ranging attack on Iran after a weeks-long lobbying effort by an unusual pair of U.S. allies in the Middle East — Israel and Saudi Arabia — according to four people familiar with the matter, as Israeli and U.S. forces teamed to topple Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after nearly four decades in power.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made multiple private phone calls to Trump over the past month advocating a U.S. attack, despite his public support for a diplomatic solution, the four people said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, continued his long-running public campaign for U.S. strikes against what he views as an existential enemy of his country.
The combined effort helped lead Trump to order a massive aerial campaign against Iran’s leadership and military, which in its initial hour led to the death of Khamenei and several other senior Iranian officials.
The attack came despite U.S. intelligence assessments that Iran’s forces were unlikely to pose an immediate threat to the U.S. mainland within the next decade. Saturday’s attack on Iran was a break from decades of U.S. decision-making to hold back from a full-scale effort to depose the regime of a country of more than 90 million people. It also marked a stark shift from Trump’s own previous military forays, which until now have been far narrower in scope.
Now Trump will bear the risk of the bet he has placed: that a major military operation conducted from the air can achieve political goals on the ground.

Putin’s Allies Keep Falling - In the last 15 months three of Putin’s closest global allies - Assad in Syria, Maduro in Venezuela, and Khamenei in Iran - have fallen. Another close Putin ally - Cuba - is under tremendous US pressure. It’s why you see Ukrainians cheering on social media. Putin’s failed war in Ukraine has done enormous damage to Putin’s global power, which is why pro-democracy leaders here need to make helping Zelenskyy, and weakening Putin, a high priority in the days ahead.

Trump Has Become The Malevolent Mad King Our Founders Fought To Prevent. We Are Here Now - As we discussed yesterday back in January Trump declared himself King, and announced that no law, international or domestic, applied to him and his regime. That’s bad. But what’s worse for us and the world is that Trump is a bloodthirsty sadist who clearly enjoys harming and killing people:

We have going to have time in the coming weeks to discuss what this means, and what we do about it. But a few things today:

We need to be very loud this week, and work to pass the War Powers Resolutions in both chambers. This would be a very powerful rebuke of Trump, and something that can happen
Pro-democracy forces here in the US need to start planning for and war-gaming out how to compete this year in this new, “whatever it takes” battlefield Trump is creating (more on that here).
As I wrote on Friday the issue of Trump’s escalating authoritarianism has to become central to our politics now (No Kings). We need to follow the rhetorical direction that Spanberger and Padilla gave us this week. We have to leave behind the false comfort that this election, and our politics, is going to be about “affordability,” and not the fate of the Western world and our democracy itself. We need to be more than warriors for the middle class - we need to become proud American patriots fighting with everything we got to ensure a new birth of freedom here, and everywhere, too. We can and must do both.

The great Stuart Stevens is coming by at 10am EST tomorrow to discuss all this. Join us by clicking on this link, and now…..

Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $273,500 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew! This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing in late March.

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $388,300 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $40,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!

Winning Ohio - $65,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year. Note a generous donor has sent $21,000 worth of Hopium-infused contributions directly to the candidates which are not included in our on-line goal tracker.

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $135,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $80,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Study The Spangerberger And Padilla Speeches

Two more ways you can go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; and bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

This week our calls should clearly on reining in the illegal war in Iran.

I also strongly advise studying the speeches from Governor Spanberger and Senator Padilla this week. They charted a new, powerful rhetorical path forward for our movement, one that we can all use in our own work each day.