A new statewide law came into effect in New York on Saturday requiring food stores and retail establishments to allow customers to pay in cash. However, the rule doesn't apply to bills in denominations above $20, which you wouldn't think would be a problem, except that there are more $100 bills than any other denomination in circulation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell on Tuesday, paring steeper losses after a midday report that Iran is willing to listen to proposals to end the war, but stocks were unable to keep their momentum as traders digested news that the US is deploying 3,000 troops to the Middle East. After the market closed, reports emerged that the US has sent a plan to Iran to end the war, sending stocks up and oil down in the aftermarket session. |
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How much does oil matter for inflation anyway? |
As markets await the first Consumer Price Index print measured since the start of the Iran war, slated for April 10, it's worth stepping back and asking one important question: how much does oil matter for inflation anyway? Energy is only about 6% of the CPI, but that's not the full picture. |
- That is significantly lower than it was back in 2012, when energy was more than 10% of the index — and, of course, when prices spike, people have to spend more on those goods, which is why the weight of energy in the CPI basket jumped after Covid in 2022.
- Of course, while the share of energy contributing to the CPI directly might be lower than what many people expect, higher oil and energy prices affect nearly everything else indirectly.
- Food prices, making up ~15% of the index, are sensitive to fertilizers, which are often produced using natural gas, as well as transportation costs. Airfares, worth 0.8% of the index, are already rising.
- Supply chains across nearly every physical industry in America are impacted by more expensive barrels of oil.
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Indeed, RBC analysts project that if oil prices settle around $100 per barrel, US inflation would rise above 3.5% from Q2, about 0.7 percentage points higher than the base case. IMF analysis estimated last week that every 10% increase in energy prices, if sustained for a year, would result in a 40-basis point increase in global inflation. |
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For now, traders in prediction markets* are expecting a chunky rise in headline inflation, with the majority expecting CPI to rise 3.2% for March. Even if the war in Iran were to end, oil prices are likely to remain elevated. In addition to the increased costs of shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz — whether that involves paying the Iranians or merely just factoring in the higher price of insuring the vessels that transport oil and the valuable cargo within — a significant amount of fossil fuel infrastructure has been damaged and a number of facilities have ceased processing. Getting those facilities back online will take time, so for now pricey oil is going to stick around for a bit. |
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC. |
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Trade the market, not just the tickers |
More and more traders are using index options. Why? |
- Benchmark-level exposure: Nasdaq-100 Index® Options allow for more macro expressions than single-stock securities, giving traders the potential to participate in upside or mitigate downside portfolio risk.
- Enhanced leverage: With index options, traders can control larger positions than they access with single stocks. Available in two contract sizes, NDX® and XND®, Nasdaq-100 Index Options can be suitable for all portfolio types.
- Potential Tax Benefits: In many cases, there are meaningful tax benefits associated with index options compared to similar stock or ETF options. Consult a tax advisor before investing.
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Nasdaq-100 Index Options are cash-settled at expiration, rather than in shares — and as European-styled options, they carry no risk of early assignment. Discover the NDX advantage. |
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America is officially spending more on building data centers than offices |
- America's construction spending on data centers reached a record annualized rate of $45 billion in December, crossing paths with declining private office outlays at $44 billion, per US Census Bureau data.
- Recently, research from CBRE found that data center capacity under construction actually fell from 6.35 megawatts in 2024 to 5.99 megawatts by the end of 2025 — but the bottleneck doesn't appear to be demand, but more mundane supply issues, with deal implementation at the local level, including slow permitting and constrained supply chains, seemingly causing the slowdown.
- Indeed, considering how hyperscaler clients are trying to secure power capacity, it's hard to imagine data center spending not expanding its lead.
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With skyrocketing demand, construction costs are jumping, too — helping construction firms to become the best-performing non-Iran-related segment of the stock market this year, as Sherwood News Senior Markets Correspondent Matt Phillips pointed out. |
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One of the most boring and ubiquitous pieces of modern consumer technology is suddenly in the crosshairs of the Trump administration. It turns out your dusty internet router that's probably from China is a favorite target for cyberattacks. Why they're vulnerable |
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- ⚾️ MLB: It's Opening Day! The victors of the 2025 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers, have a 29% chance of repeating, according to prediction markets, with other strong contenders including the Seattle Mariners (9%) and New York Yankees (9%).
- 🌇 Los Angeles: The Dodgers seem poised for another great year; markets are pricing in a 53% chance they clear at least 100 wins. It's a long shot, but there's even a 7% chance that the Dodgers get over 115 wins this season, which would put them in striking distance of the record. Star player Shohei Ohtani has a 43% chance of leading the league in runs heading into the season, and pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto — the hero of Game 7 — has the third-best chances of winning the National League's Cy Young award this season.
- 🏔️ Colorado: The leading contenders for the worst record in MLB are the Colorado Rockies, with a 55% chance of finishing the year with the worst record. Last year Colorado finished the season 43-119, one of the worst seasons in the modern era, becoming the first team to open a season with 19 consecutive losses.
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Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED. For the sake of simplicity, the examples included do not take into consideration commissions and other transaction fees, tax considerations, or margin requirements, which are factors that may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy. An investor should review transaction costs, margin requirements and tax considerations with a broker and tax advisor before entering into any options strategy. Options involve risk and are not suitable for everyone. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies may be obtained from your broker, one of the exchanges or The Options Clearing Corporation, One North Wacker Drive, Suite 500, Chicago, IL 60606 or call 1-888-OPTIONS or visit www.888options.com. Any strategies discussed, including examples using actual securities and price data, are strictly for illustrative and education purposes and are not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities. © 2026. Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. |
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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate... See more |
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