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Trump's Terrible Week - Huge Tariff Loss In House, 2025 Jobs Revised Deeply Downward, Epstein Scandal Metastasizes, Six Patriots Escape His Wrath, Bad New Polls

“This is a watershed moment for the 119th Congress” - Punchbowl on Trump's tariff loss in the House

Simon Rosenberg

Feb 11

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Good morning all. Our leader and his allies in Congress are having a terrible, terrible week. Let’s review:

Extraordinary Rebuke On Tariffs In The House

From Punchbowl News this morning: “This is a watershed moment for the 119th Congress”:

The House is now going to have open season on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Trump suffered a serious political blow Tuesday night when the House voted down a rule blocking members from offering resolutions to end the numerous tariffs the president has levied since returning to office.
GOP Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.), Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Kevin Kiley (Calif.) voted with all Democrats against the rule, despite heavy lobbying from Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership team and the White House’s legislative affairs operation. The White House was driving this process, mostly because Trump doesn’t want intraparty division. The GOP leadership knew it couldn’t win this vote, despite the pressure from administration officials.
With that vote, members will have effectively unfettered ability to force up or down votes on the president’s global trade agenda. This will start today.
Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.) plans to offer a resolution terminating any tariffs imposed on Canada via a Trump executive order in February 2025.
These resolutions are privileged, meaning House GOP leaders must schedule a vote now that Johnson’s effort to block them has failed. Democrats need to wait 15 days from the introduction of such resolutions and forcing a floor vote. If the House approves any resolution, it gets a floor vote in the Senate due to its privileged status.
There are a few implications to consider here.
1) Trump’s loss was a loss for Johnson, too. The White House wanted Johnson to include the tariff provision in the rule. If you align yourself that closely with Trump and he loses a vote, so do you. Also, it’s never good for a speaker to lose votes.
“This is life with a small majority,” Johnson told reporters as he left the Capitol. “I need unanimity every day, and we didn’t get it tonight.”
2) This will reignite debate over Trump’s lame-duck status. Trump acknowledged Tuesday that there won’t be a second reconciliation package, quashing the hopes of House GOP leaders in particular.
“But we’ve gotten everything passed that we need for four years,” Trump told Fox Business Network’s Larry Kudlow.
If that’s really the case — and there’s a good chance that Democrats win control of at least one chamber in 2026 — how do Johnson and his top lieutenants keep members in line for the rest of this year?
3) Many House Republicans believe Trump’s tariffs are both bad policy and politics, and they’ll be tempted to vote with Democrats to disapprove of them.
4) Democrats have a flood of resolutions on the wide variety of tariffs Trump has issued. This could clog up the floor for House Republicans.
5) As the midterms get closer, Democrats will use these votes as a cudgel against vulnerable Republicans. Economists agree that the tariffs have caused prices to increase nationally, although there’s a debate on how much. There are questions as well about how much Trump can pressure industries to “re-shore” their manufacturing operations to the United States.
Yet forcing Republicans to vote on that is politically potent. There’s no doubt that Trump will be watching to see who bucks him.
Now what? This is a watershed moment for the 119th Congress.
A small group of House Republicans told Trump’s White House and the Republican leadership that they’d had enough of being asked to cover for a policy on which they disagree. GOP lawmakers have been mostly supplicants to Trump. This trio of rank-and-file no votes on Tuesday shows that some Republicans are ready to stand up against the president on a substantive policy disagreement.

Trump has now lost big votes on his tariffs in both chambers. It’s an extraordinary rebuke of Trump on his most important - and disastrous - economic policy. And as we’ve discussed here, I think these tariffs and the way he has used them are grounds for his removal or resignation for they are the greatest abuse of Presidential power in American history. And why? He did it to help pay for the unaffordable and ruinous tax cuts for him and his oligarch buddies.

On the tariffs Trump broke the law to enrich himself; violated the Constitution to enrich himself; hurt the American economy to enrich himself; hurt working people to enrich himself; hurt our relations with the entire world to enrich himself; hurt the economic system that has made us prosperous to enrich himself; hurt farmers and small businesses to enrich himself. His greed, his corruption, his vainglorious need to feel STRONG has driven everything in this first terrible year of Trump. There is no longer what is good for America, or the American people. It is just what is good for this glutenous, venal, out of control madman.

2025 Jobs Revisions Brutal For Trump

There will be much bluster and bullshit today, but the big news in the delayed monthly jobs report is that total number of jobs created in 2025 went from an already anemic 584,000 to a pathetic 181,000.

So here’s my working scorecard of jobs created by Democratic and Republican Presidencies since 1989 (these charts were created this am by Claude AI, so please do not share until I can run a thorough fact check. Consider them a sketch not a photograph).

So Trump’s year one job growth total, including the new January data, comes in at a truly awful 269,000. No matter how you cut the data his jobs track record is the worst of the last six Presidents.

Democrats have averaged more than twice as many jobs created per month - 211,000 - as Republicans have per year - 90,000.

Since 1989 52 million jobs have been created in America. 50.6 million of them have been created under Democratic Presidents. 97%. Essentially all of them.

The Epstein Scandal Has Metastasized. His Desperate, Illegal Efforts To Contain It Have Failed

The scandal has gone global. Multiple foreign governments have opened up formal investigations. Political elites here in the US and abroad have fallen. New access by Congress to the unredacted Epstein files this week have confirmed that Trump and his team are still working hard - illegally, immorally, unsuccessfully - to cover up and lessen the blast radius of the scandal.

Grand Jury Tells Trump, Hegseth, and Bondi To Fuck Off

Two Terrible Polls

Here’s my Economist/YouGov weekly tracking poll breakdown. Lowest Trump approval so far this term - 37%. Dems up 8 in the generic ballot - our best showing this term in this polls. Trump’s decline on his two most important issues - inflation and immigration - dramatic.

A new NBC News polls released this morning also finds Trump at his lowest mark this term, and also losing ground on immigration (as all polls show).

Hopium paid subscribers will be gathering tonight at 7pm EST to talk about Trump’s terrible week. Register here, and now….

Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Keep contacting your Congressional Reps and demand they rein in ICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Big week ahead as DHS funding runs out on Friday!

Winning The Midterms - Support Our Candidates

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $158,000 raised, $250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10). Now including funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we are doing in May.
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $30,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!
Winning Ohio - $55,400 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year. Note a generous donor has sent $21,000 worth of Hopium-infused contributions directly to the candidates which are not included in our on-line goal tracker.
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $75,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper and a new, terrific one with NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $124,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps, Winning In Red States and Red Places (2026-2032)

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $364,700 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties

Keep working hard all. The momentum is with us, and we need to keep fighting as hard as we can - Simon

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