The war over wine

Tariffs have crushed California vineyards dependent on exports to Canada. But they've been a boon for once-overlooked Ontario wineries.

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In a culmination of the escalating trade turmoil between Canada and the US, California wines were swept from nearly every Canadian store in the span of a single workday.   Heuvel, the vice president of McManis Family Vineyards in California's San Joaquin Valley, braced himself for what he knew was a massive blow. Canada is the largest foreign buyer of California wine, accounting for 35% of US wine exports by value before the boycott. California winemakers are responsible for over 80% of the country's supply. Those exports amounted to $459.5m in shipments last year, and an estimated ~$717m in retail sales. "Forty percent of our wine sales stopped at the flip of a switch," Heuvel recalls. Olivia Heller/The Hustle   What he didn't anticipate was how long the stalemate would last. More than nine months later, four of the six provinces that banned US alcohol in March are still holding firm.   The standoff has created wildly divergent financial outlooks for each country's dominant wine industry. In Canada, Ontario wine producers have uncorked a once-in-a-generation opportunity to expand their share of the market. California winemakers, meanwhile, face an existential threat.   'The biggest demand surge I've seen'   The seeds of cross-border conflict were planted as early as this January, when President Donald Trump began threatening to annex Canada as the "51st state" of the US. The standoff was formalized on March 4, when the US implemented tariffs on a range of Canadian products, particularly aiming at the kneecaps of the nation's steel, aluminum, automotive, and softwood lumber industries.   Canada fought back with tariffs of its own. But the northern offensive didn't stop there.   In a collective effort to thumb their noses at what they perceive as American presidential bullying, Canadians have dutifully backed out of US vacation travel plans and entreated each other to "buy Canadian" goods and services. At the provincial level, sales boycotts on select US products — like wine — have made it simpler than ever for Canadian consumers to flex their patriotic muscle. Olivia Heller/The Hustle   This political moment has afforded Ontario's relatively up-and-coming wine industry a rare, and hugely consequential, spotlight. With merchandise gaps to fill, Ontario wines have taken the place of California's buttery Chardonnays and juicy Cab Savs.   "There are some very popular California wines up here, but we make great Chardonnay in Ontario too," says Aaron Dobbin, president and CEO of Wine Growers of Ontario, an industry lobby group representing over 194 Ontario wineries. "So the people who were traditionally California Chardonnay buyers, now they've had the chance to discover and enjoy Ontario Chardonnay."   Despite Ontario wine producers' modest 15% provincial market share in the wake of the US boycott, on top of downward-trending alcohol consumption in general, Dobbin says that Q2 sales for Ontario wine were up by 37% over Q2 2024. "It's been a phenomenal opportunity for Ontario wine," says Norm Beal, the president and founder of Peninsula Ridge Estates Winery, located in the heart of Ontario's Niagara wine region. Since the US ban went into effect, his company's sales have more than doubled. "It's the biggest demand surge I've seen in my career." In March, stores in six Canadian provinces stopped stocking U.S. wines. (Photo by Creative Touch Imaging Ltd./NurPhoto via Getty Images)   Beal has a bird's-eye view on his industry's extraordinary situation. In addition to running Peninsula Ridge, he serves as the chair of Ontario Craft Wineries, a non-profit trade association that represents over 100 wineries from across the province. Across the board, the sales surge has been so strong that Ontario faces a likely grape shortage — "which is a good thing," Beal says, because it's prompting wineries to plant new vineyards and expand production. Beal himself added five acres this year and plans to tack on another 28 in the year to come.   "There's probably been $40m or $50m in capital investment across the industry this year, and that's probably going to double in 2026," Beal says. "Folks are putting their money where their mouth is, and there's going to be an expanded industry in the back of it."   'Caught in the crossfire'   Honore Comfort, VP of international marketing for the California wine industry advocacy group Wine Institute, tells me that the province of Ontario represents the largest and most crucial trade partner within that relationship. Although US alcohol bans have unfolded across multiple Canadian provinces, losing Ontario shelf space has delivered the single biggest hit to California's export business.   Canada was McManis's first export market, a relationship dating back to 2001. "We really didn't have to oversell the product there," Heuvel recalls. "We just aligned with distribution partners there to help promote the brand, and that quickly became our number-one market. To this day" — at least, pre-boycott — "Canada is McManus's number-one market, even beyond domestic sales." Olivia Heller/The Hustle   Though Ontario drives most of that success due to its population size, it isn't the only province with a taste for McManis wines. It was only recently that Heuvel learned McManis's Cabernet was the category's top seller in Atlantic Canada, a portfolio encompassing retailers in New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.   The wallop to Heuvel's business comes at an already taxing time for California's wine industry, with supply levels at total odds with market demand. A Gallup poll published this August found that just 54% of Americans say they ever drink alcohol, marking the lowest recorded rate since Gallup began the poll in 1939. This drop in consumption coincides with an inventory backlog left over from the California wine industry's overzealous response to a pandemic-era surge in consumer appetite. Suddenly, the entire sector must contend with a supply bubble and record-low demand at the very same time.   It's hard to imagine worse timing for the current export drama. According to the US Department of Agriculture's annual Grape Crush Report, growers processed 2.9m tons of winegrapes in 2024 — down nearly a quarter from the year before. The California Farm Bureau Federation further reported that, across the state, as many as 400k tons of grapes were left to shrivel on vines because their growers couldn't find buyers. California growers are struggling to find buyers for their grapes this year. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)   In spite of a 2025 season boasting "near perfect" growing conditions, the sharply diminished export market has made this year's harvest prospects even worse. Western Farm Press reported in late October that California grape farmers had abandoned "tens of thousands" of acres of vineyards, deciding that the cost of maintaining and harvesting their crops wouldn't be recouped through sales.   "We are very much caught in the crossfire," says Comfort. "The wine sector has become collateral damage in a trade dispute that is not about wine, and that is what is so particularly frustrating about it."   An uncertain path ahead   For both the California and Ontario wine industries, the future is paved in unknowns. What remains almost certain is that, sooner or later, the trade war will come to an end. Once that happens, Ontario wine producers hope to leverage the current surge into sustained long-term growth.   "Nobody has a crystal ball," says Dobbin, the Wine Growers of Ontario head. "How much of this is going to be permanent? It's a really big question."   Dobbin says that, for now, the industry is investing heavily in marketing to make the most of the moment. The goal is to get more Ontarians to try local wines, in hopes that once they experience their quality, they'll keep buying them even after US wines return. Olivia Heller/The Hustle   Beal, the Peninsula Ridge owner, is optimistic that the recent boom will drive continued industry expansion. Though the pace of growth may temper, he doubts that the demand for Ontario's vintages will return to its pre-boom state.    "Many people that have tried our wines now realize that they have this hidden gem in their own backyard that they weren't aware of," he says. "So I think we're going to see sustained growth in our sector going forward, regardless of what happens."    On the California side, Heuvel is holding out hope for a silver lining. Though he expects the market to begin recovering by the end of 2026, he believes the region's wine industry isn't just in a temporary downturn.    "I think we're going through a complete transition," he says. "Once we get our head above water, it's going to be a whole different industry."    California's countless acres of abandoned wine crops may present a melancholy picture, but Heuvel sees them as evidence of a much-needed correction in the way growers and producers approach inventory. Contractions are never ideal, but they are sometimes what must happen. Drinking in America is at an all-time low, leaving growers in areas like Napa Valley with excess harvest. (Photo by George Rose/Getty Images)   That industry-wide downsizing could potentially extend to McManis. "​​We have a lot of overhead relying on us operating at capacity," Heuvel says.   Business from domestic markets remains somewhat steady, but it won't be enough to sustain operations at their current scale. McManis needs Canada.   Heuvel believes that the relationship will soon be rekindled. Their ties may be tested, but they run deep. Above all else, he is eager to reconnect with McManis's Canadian business partners, whom he has come to view as his friends.   "We still communicate with them regularly, but — this is going to sound a little corny — it feels kind of like when you're growing up in school and your best friend moves away," Heuvel says.   "You're talking to each other every week, and then it's every month, and then it's like, 'Oh, I haven't talked to him in a year.' And then it's like, 'I haven't seen him in 10 years.'" Share & discuss this story on: Today's email was brought to you by Kelli María Korducki, Katherine Laidlaw, Mark Dent, and Zachary Crockett, with help from Kaylee Jenzen.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here. 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