Monday, December 1, 2025

☕ $140,000 poverty line?

Businesspeople are having emotions over a Substack essay...

Welcome back. Are you ready for Whamageddon? It's a game that takes place each holiday season in which participants try to avoid hearing "Last Christmas" by Wham! from Dec. 1 through Christmas Eve.

Keep it in mind as you craft the playlist for your upcoming ugly sweater party. Notice that we didn't say "Include it," or "Don't include it," as we're not sure if you're a considerate host or a diabolical one…

Brendan Cosgrove, Holly Van Leuven, Neal Freyman

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  • Markets: November's bumpy ride may have left some investors a little sore, but now their focus will be on making sure December is one to remember. The 12th month is typically a good one for markets, but in light of recent volatility, experts say Wall Street may not want to bank on a Santa Claus rally this year.

 

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ECONOMY

decreasing money concept art

Mininyx Doodle/Getty Images

Officially, the Department of Health and Human Services declares the US poverty line as $32,150 for a family of four. But Simplify Asset Management Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager Michael Green went viral last week for saying the line should really be $140,000.

Whose line is it anyway? We got the poverty line as a metric in 1965, after then-President Lyndon Johnson launched the "War on Poverty." The measurement took the cost of feeding a household in a year, multiplied that by three, and compared it to annual income.

But Green says that doesn't reflect modern life, since food is cheaper now, but essential costs like healthcare and shelter have increased dramatically. When you adjust for those realities, Green said:

  • The poverty line is not $32,150, as the government currently measures it.
  • It should actually be at least $136,500, and anything short of that would limit a household's participation in the economy.

Line of fire

The rebuttals have been rolling in. Green's essay got a lot of positive feedback, like from entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, who called it a "must-read for every person in business or finance." But experts weren't completely sold on Green's methodology, even if they agreed with his larger point about the metric being antiquated.

Some critics couldn't get past Green's arithmetic. Economist Noah Smith wrote for the Noahpinion blog that Green's new red line is "very silly" because most Americans aren't actually living impoverished lifestyles.

Big picture: Officially, about 10% of Americans live below the poverty line, but a recent Harris Poll survey found that one-third of six-figure earners feel financially stretched. The median household income for US families with at least two children was $109,300 last year.—BC

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WORLD

planes in snow at O'Hare Airport

Jim Vondruska/Getty Images

Over 12k flights delayed yesterday due to winter storm. Our long Thanksgiving travel nightmare is not yet over. FlightAware reported 12,008 delays into or out of the United States yesterday, as well as 977 cancellations into or out of the US, mostly due to a major winter storm that has impacted the Midwest, the western Great Lakes, and parts of the East Coast (which will get hit with another storm today and tomorrow). According to the National Weather Service, affected areas received six to 12 inches of snow and endured gusty winds and other hazardous travel conditions. The FAA reported that the airports of Salt Lake City, Minneapolis, Rochester, BWI, and Ronald Reagan all had to deice planes. Airlines for America had predicted that a record-breaking 31 million passengers would fly for the Thanksgiving holiday, with 3.4 million expected to pass through the airports yesterday, before the weather disruptions.

Witkoff to meet with Putin in Russia following Rubio meeting with Ukraine. Steve Witkoff, special envoy to President Trump, is headed to Russia today to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Yesterday, a Ukrainian delegation met with Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Florida to continue discussing terms to end the war. Both the Ukrainian and US sides called that meeting productive, though few details were disclosed. It was the first gathering without Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's former chief of staff, who was instrumental in softening a draft proposal circulated by the Trump administration that was seen by the international community as heavily favoring Russia. Yermak resigned on Friday, the same day his home was raided, amid a $100 million embezzlement scandal rocking Zelensky's inner circle. Yermak's quick departure was intended to keep the focus on negotiations without risking the US extracting heavy demands from Ukraine in light of the revelation.

Zootopia 2 dominated the Thanksgiving weekend. A PG-rated movie sequel centered on a dynamic partnership in a world of talking animals trounced box-office records—but it's probably not the film you were expecting. Zootopia 2 earned a slew of superlatives, including the highest global debut of 2025 and the No. 1 movie globally, domestically, and internationally for the weekend. Its domestic receipts tallied $156 million since Wednesday, including $96.8 million over the traditional weekend, according to Variety. Wicked: For Good did pretty all right, though, bringing in $93 million over the weekend. But Zootopia 2 also garnered more encomiums from critics than the second installment of Wicked did. It's Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with a score of 91%.—HVL

RETAIL

A Disney store on Black Friday 2025

Ronaldo BolañOs/Getty Images

Gen Z, who clearly never had to stand outside a store with their mom at 3am for the chance to get a Rosie O'Doll, are the keepers of the Black Friday flame.

Bloomberg reported that the stores with the longest lines this Black Friday were those popular with Gen Z, like the jeweler Kendra Scott, Bath & Body Works, and Edikted:

  • The AT&T Business 2025 Holiday Shopping Survey found that 40% of Gen Z and 32% of millennials had planned to do their holiday shopping on Black Friday, whereas older generations were mostly waiting until a week or two before Christmas.
  • But Gen Z also plans to spend 23% less this holiday season than last year, according to a PwC report released in September.

Meanwhile, Gen X is like the Little Match Girl—if the LMG had a trust fund and just wanted some attention:

  • "I get hundreds of junk emails a day, and there's nothing in my inbox that feels like 'Oh, they want my business,'" a Gen Xer told the New York Times.
  • Although they're getting mostly ignored in holiday marketing efforts, Gen Xers are more likely to overspend this season than Gen Z and millennials, according to TD Bank.

Big picture: It's a K-shaped Christmas, Charlie Brown. CNBC found signs of wealthy Americans spending robustly on gifts, while lower-income shoppers pull back.—HVL

CALENDAR

The FIFA World Cup trophy

The FIFA World Cup trophy. Fabrice Coffrini/Getty Images

Cyber Monday is today: After a record-setting Black Friday, US shoppers are poised to break more records today. It's the biggest online shopping day of the year, and the results will offer a window into the state of the US consumer. Additional data will come in the form of earnings reports this week. American Eagle delivers results on Tuesday, followed by Dollar Tree, Five Below, and Macy's on Wednesday. Then, Kroger, Ulta, and Dollar General report earnings on Thursday, and Victoria's Secret reports on Friday. Preliminary consumer sentiment data will also be released by the University of Michigan on Friday.

Luigi Mangione is back in court: Starting today, a New York judge will hear arguments about whether certain evidence can be used in the state case against Mangione, who is accused of fatally shooting UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson last December. Defense attorneys are trying to block the prosecution from entering a notebook found in Mangione's backpack into evidence. Prosecutors have said his writings help establish a possible motive. The defense is also trying to block prosecutors from using Mangione's statements to police, arguing he wasn't properly read his rights. Mangione has pleaded not guilty in the New York case. He also faces federal charges and charges in Pennsylvania, where he was arrested.

Big week for football in America: The draw for the upcoming World Cup—hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico—will take place on Friday. Then, the match times and venues will be announced on Saturday. Elsewhere in the soccer world, Lionel Messi's never-ending quest to add to his trophy case continues in South Florida on Saturday, when Messi's Inter Miami hosts Vancouver in the MLS Cup final. The other kind of football (the one with the pigskin) is also heating up this weekend, with some of the nation's top college teams hoping they can make it out of their conference championships with their playoff hopes still alive.

Everything else:

  • Warner Bros. Discovery wants potential buyers to submit second-round bids by today.
  • Today is the first day of the meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere.
  • The Institute for Supply Management is releasing fresh manufacturing data today.
  • CrowdStrike and Okta report earnings on Tuesday.
  • Payroll processing company ADP releases its private-sector employment report on Wednesday.
  • Salesforce and Snowflake deliver results on Wednesday.
  • The Rockefeller Center Christmas tree lighting will be broadcast live on NBC and Peacock on Wednesday.
  • The shutdown-delayed core personal consumption expenditures price index report for September will be released on Friday. It's the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve.
  • Five Nights at Freddy's 2 is in theaters starting Friday.
  • Sunday marks the anniversary of Japan's assault on Pearl Harbor.

STAT

a lifeguard watches some surf

Hurricane Erin caused high tides along the East Coast in August, but did not make landfall. Charly Triballeau/Getty Images

The 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season is officially over, and for the first time since 2015, not a single one made landfall in the US. There was still plenty of activity, however:

  • The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had predicted an above-average season of activity for 2025. The agency said that the season fell within the ranges it predicted for "named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes."
  • Between June 1 and November 30, the Atlantic basin produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes.
  • Three of the hurricanes reached Category 5 status, a tie for the second-most on record.

While the US got off scot-free on the hurricanes-making-landfall front this year, other nations were nowhere near as lucky. Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica as a Category 5 and brought significant devastation at the end of October before moving on and hitting Cuba as a major hurricane. Melissa ranks in the top three strongest hurricanes ever to make landfall in the Atlantic basin, according to The Weather Channel.—HVL

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NEWS

  • Authorities in Hong Kong continued to arrest suspects in a corruption probe following a devastating fire in a residential apartment complex on Nov. 26 that killed at least 146 people.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally asked Israel's president to pardon him, a move that would end his corruption trial.
  • President Trump said that he has decided who will succeed Jerome Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve, but declined to name his choice.
  • US consumers spent $11.8 billion online for Black Friday, a new record, even as in-store sales waned.
  • OPEC+ met yesterday and agreed to hold its output steady for 2026.
  • Playwright Tom Stoppard, who wrote Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead and co-wrote the screenplay for Shakespeare in Love, died at age 88.

RECS

Recs

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Picture perfect: Advice for sprucing up pictures for holiday cards—and where to draw the line on sprucing.

Related content: Here's a new way to check for fake photos.

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PLAY

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Turntable: Four out of five professionals agree: Starting the Monday after Thanksgiving with Turntable is the equivalent of hitting snooze to get a few more minutes of bliss before reality hits. Play it here.

Christmas song trivia

Classic Christmas songs are among the most covered tracks in music—but whose version is listened to the most? We'll give you a Christmas song, and you have to name the artist/band with the most popular recording, as tabulated by Billboard.

  1. "Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas"
  2. "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree"
  3. "White Christmas"
  4. "Santa Claus is Comin' to Town"
  5. "Jingle Bells"
  6. "Santa Baby"

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ANSWER

  1. Michael Bublé
  2. Brenda Lee
  3. Bing Crosby
  4. Jackson 5
  5. Frank Sinatra
  6. Eartha Kitt

Word of the Day

Today's Word of the Day is: encomiums, meaning "expressions of glowing praise." Thanks to Duff from Snohomish, WA, for the absolutely amazing, perfect, and spot-on suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

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☕ $140,000 poverty line?

Businesspeople are having emotions over a Substack essay... December 01, 2025 View Online | Sign Up | Shop Presented By Welc...