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Aftyn Behn Tied In New Emerson Poll, Some Holiday Thoughts About Trump's Failed Project And Working With Much Greater Ambition Now

Today Hopium is endorsing Eileen Higgins for Mayor of Miami - the run off is December 9

Simon Rosenberg

Nov 26

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Morning all. First some breaking news - Emerson, a right aligned pollster, just dropped a poll of TN-07 that has the race statistically tied, a toss up:

Here’s the Emerson summary of the poll:

“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”
“There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%,” Kimball added.
Behn and Van Epps each have a 47% favorable rating among voters, and a 41% unfavorable rating.
“Similar to the gender divide on the ballot test, 54% of women have a favorable view of Behn, compared to 41% of men, and 52% of men have a favorable view of Van Epps, and 42% of women have a favorable view of Van Epps,” Kimball noted.
President Trump holds a 47% job approval rating among Tennessee 7th District voters, and a 49% disapproval rating.
“President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve,” Kimball said.
The economy is the top issue for 38% of Tennessee voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), healthcare (13%), threats to democracy (13%), immigration (6%), crime (5%), and education (5%).

If you haven’t gotten to it yet watch my new uplifting conversation with Aftyn from yesterday afternoon. She is a remarkable and inspiring candidate who has turned a +22 Trump district into a competitive race, and terrified the national GOP who are now pouring enormous sums in against her. Please consider contributing to her campaign today. We’ve already blown through our $25,000 goal (over $28,000 this am!!!!!!) and are now shooting for $50,000 by Friday.

Later today I will be sending along an interview and writeup of a second candidate we are now endorsing, Eileen Higgins, who is in a December 9 run-off election for Mayor of Miami, Florida. Look for that email early this afternoon. A Democrat has not been elected Mayor of Miami since the 1990s. With our support Eileen Higgins can win this race and help us end this year on a joyous uplifting note.

We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Some Notes On Working With Greater Ambition Now, From Strength And Confidence Not Fear, And Finding A Higher Gear - I have a lot to say this morning - particularly after Trump’s threats to execute six members of Congress, his despicable feting of MBS, his selling out of Ukraine to Russia, his unyielding lies, his epic corruption, his ongoing cover up of the Epstein files, his tearing down of the East Wing to build himself a gilded ballroom - for I am incredibly pissed off and while ready for a restful holiday I am also ready to fight with even greater commitment when we get back on Monday. I won’t be able to get this all out the way I want it but here we go……

Trump is doing enormous harm to the country in every conceivable way - our economy, our security, our freedoms, our future. A majority of the country has woken up to what is happening, and people are pissed. We just had a blow out election, winning by huge, seldom seen margins all across the country. We are competing now in a +22 Republican seat in Tennessee and have a serious chance to flip the city of Miami in two weeks. Prominent Republican pollsters are now warning that without a serious course correction Republicans are facing a disastrous election next year. With the current national landscape we are favored to win the House and the Senate is absolutely in play. Incredibly, despite their extraordinary propaganda machine, Trump’s poll numbers just keep dropping. This week two polls found him at 35%, his lowest of 2025:

35%-62% ARG
35%-56% High Point University

The Economist/YouGov weekly track has him at 38%-57%, their lowest reading this year. He’s now regularly polling in the 30s in job approval, and in the 60s in disapproval. His agenda is even more unpopular than he is. Here’s my weekly break out of the Econ/YouGov track that documents how much he has unraveled this year. It’s incredible. He truly is both a lame duck and a fuck up.

No matter what he does he just keeps dropping and Republican prospects grow dimmer. And as I’ve written I think things are more likely to get worse for Trump and the Rs in the coming months as the state and local communities start coming to terms with what these guys have done to them, and the country rejects his wag the dog invasion of Venezuela as they have rejected every other major policy initiative this year (with the exception of border security):

Trump is now a failed President; a diminished and desperate politician; a leader surrounded by quislings and incompetent fools; and he is old, in ill health, and increasingly living in a world distant from facts and reality making it far more likely he keeps making enormous mistakes (like vaingloriously invading Venezuela). Just read his post this morning. It’s complete and utter put the guy in a stretcher crazy talk:

Friends that we are here, with this clear and deep understanding in the public of how horrible he is; with these extraordinary election victories; with him losing the shutdown, badly; with us competing in +22 Republican districts; we are here and IT’S INCREDIBLE. An incredible achievement. Congratulations everyone. These are huge, big wins that we must acknowledge and build on. For as I say here all the time….

we are strong now and they are weak

So we will go fight out these two new election opportunities in the next two weeks and work to end the year strong. But there are two things now that I think we must really focus on, and work to achieve together -

we must challenge our Democratic leaders across the country to start organizing themselves into a more powerful national opposition force. For we are stronger together than apart
and split off some Republican leaders to forge a bipartisan, pro-democracy coalition in Congress - and potentially across the country - to more aggressively contest the damage he is doing to the country

We just learned in the shutdown fight and in the November elections that when we fight Trump we can win. And now we must far more forcefully contest his regime itself and not accept the level of damage he is doing to the country, nor be content with leaving it to the courts. We must build a far more powerful politics of opposition to the regime itself.

Texas Democrats, JB Pritzker and Gavin Newsom showed us how to do that this summer and fall. We saw it in the shutdown fight where Trump’s standing took a huge hit that contributed to our huge electoral wins. We’ve seen it in those six Congressional Dems who made a simple video asking our service men and women to follow the law that has enraged the regime (for it must be causing them problems inside the Pentagon). We’ve seen it in the House Oversight Committee’s successful effort to get those Epstein estate materials released and in Congress’s overwhelming vote to force an end to Trump’s rancid cover up and blockade. We’ve seen it in Senator Kaine’s successful effort to get the Senate on record rolling back the terrible tariffs three times last month. We’ve seen it in a field hearing the House Oversight Committee did yesterday that produced this extraordinary testimony:

We’ve seen it in Marjorie Taylor Greene and the cracking up of the Republican House. From Punchbowl News:

MTG’s four-page note was stinging for House Republicans. Why? Because the message rang true to so many in the House GOP.
In fact, a few other GOP members messaged us over the weekend saying that they, too, are considering retiring in the middle of the term.
Here’s one particularly exercised senior House Republican:
“This entire White House team has treated ALL members like garbage. ALL. And Mike Johnson has let it happen because he wanted it to happen. That is the sentiment of nearly all — appropriators, authorizers, hawks, doves, rank and file. The arrogance of this White House team is off putting to members who are run roughshod and threatened. They don’t even allow little wins like announcing small grants or even responding from agencies. Not even the high profile, the regular rank and file random members are more upset than ever. Members know they are going into the minority after the midterms.
“More explosive early resignations are coming. It’s a tinder box. Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.”
Of course, Johnson’s team points out they have impossibly small margins and believe they are doing what they can with the hand they were dealt.
But the idea that Republicans could lose their majority this Congress is no longer far-fetched. If Johnson were to lose another House Republican in the middle of this term to retirement, death or illness, there’s a decent chance that the GOP can end up in the minority at some point in 2026.

America in a national emergency. Our leaders now must take heart from our victories and become more ambitious, more creative, more bold, more courageous. It is what the moment requires. It is what we must do. We simply must focus now on using our collective power in Congress and all across the country to focus not just on winning elections but in stopping the harm he is doing. We must far more forcefully contest the regime itself, and start focusing on weakening their ability to exercise power. We have to find that higher gear we keep talking about here, and come back from Thanksgiving rested, resolute and ready to go.

For we have to stop living like this, my friends…….

Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!

In a new essay I talk about how one of the ways we win the 2026 midterms is by providing early support to our candidates and parties to allow them to staff up now, be loud now, define the terms of the debate now, before the inevitable onslaught on AI slop, Russian disinfo, and Trumpian lies funded through bribes and corruption wash across the land. The midterms could be won or lost in these next few months - not in the fall of 2026 - and we need be fighting now with everything we got.

Winning December With Behn and Higgins

Rep. Aftyn Behn For Congress (Dec 2 special election) - $28,000 raised, $50,000 goal (new stretch goal!!!!) - Donate | Learn More and Volunteer | Amazing work all!!!!!!
Eileen Higgins For Mayor Of Miami (Dec 9 run off) - more details this afternoon

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $53k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $97k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $24,000 raised, $50,000 goal - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Watch our new interviews with Christina Bohannan (IA-01) and Jo Mendoza (AZ-06)
Hopium House 7 - Our Top House Incumbents Running For Re-election (2026) - $244k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents | Keeping these newly elected Members in Congress is the first step in winning the House in 2026

Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps (2026-2032)

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $206,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate to all five state parties in a single contribution | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!

Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our four part agenda:

Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his 28 point “plan”
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE, restoring due process for immigrants across the country, vigorously defending the 1st Amendment, warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents, and ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - Next year, on July 4th, America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.

One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Keep working hard all. I am proud, oh so very proud, to be in this fight with all of you…..

Happy Thanksgiving all! - Simon

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