Friday, October 31, 2025

☕️ Bidding war

The US obesity rate is declining amid GLP-1 use...
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Happy Halloween 🎃. If you or your child receives a potato while out trick-or-treating tonight, do not call the police on your neighbor. Handing out potatoes instead of candy is, apparently, a real thing. It started as a joke, but the versatile spud has now become a goofy novelty that some kids seek out like a collector's item.

At this rate, Boise is going to overtake Salem as the Halloween capital of the US.

—Matty Merritt, Molly Liebergall, Sam Klebanov, Adam Epstein, Holly Van Leuven

MARKETS

Nasdaq

23,581.15

S&P

6,822.34

Dow

47,522.12

10-Year

4.093%

Bitcoin

$107,581.36

Chipotle

$32.53

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks stepped on a rake yesterday as Meta's tumble dragged the Nasdaq down and the US-China trade negotiations reduced the chances of another interest rate cut. Meanwhile, Chipotle shares turned sour after the burrito chain lowered guidance.
 

HEALTH

Gallup released a survey this week showing that the obesity rate among US adults has fallen to 37% this year, a significant drop from the record high of nearly 40% just three years ago.

The decline comes as a growing number of Americans turn to GLP-1 drugs to lose weight. Gallup found that the use of these drugs specifically to lose weight (they're also used to treat diabetes) has more than doubled from February 2024, when it was 5.8%, to 12.4% currently:

  • More women (15.2%) are taking the drugs than men (9.7%), which correlates with a slightly larger decline in obesity rates among women.
  • Adults in the 50-64 age range who took the survey had the highest usage of GLP-1s for weight loss, at 17%.

The study illustrates how quickly these drugs have made their way into the mainstream—and how valuable they are for drugmakers.

The battle over semaglutide

Eli Lilly reported stellar third-quarter earnings yesterday and raised this year's revenue estimates from $60 billion–$62 billion to $63 billion–$63.5 billion, crediting the growing adoption of its weight loss drugs Zepound and Mounjaro. The company also announced a direct-to-consumer partnership with Walmart, offering customers single-dose vials of Zepbound for under $500 in its pharmacies.

Meanwhile, other pharma companies are desperately trying to claw back market share of obesity drugs, which is expected to reach $150 billion by 2030.

Bidding war. Novo Nordisk, the Danish creator of GLP-1s Wegovy and Ozempic, made an unsolicited offer to buy the weight loss drug developer Metsera for $9 billion. The offer followed shortly after Metsera struck a deal to sell itself to Novo's rival, Pfizer, that was worth up to $7.3 billion (which Metsera can still get out of). Metsera is developing new GLP-1s, some of which can be taken less often than those currently on the market.—MM

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WORLD

Volunteers with New York Common Pantry help to prepare food packages

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Federal judge "likely" to order the Trump admin to release SNAP funds. On Thursday, Judge Indira Talwani said during a hearing that a $5.5 billion contingency fund should be used to provide Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits after states run out of aid money due to the government shutdown—lapses that may begin as soon as tomorrow. "Congress has put money in an emergency fund, and it is hard for me to understand how this is not an emergency," Talwani said. She also said the USDA should be figuring out how to allocate the $5.5 billion, even though it's not enough money to fund an entire month of the program. She called the agency's search for a reason not to disburse the money "lawyering" and said, "I want agency action, not lawyering." The SNAP program provides food assistance to 42 million Americans.—HVL

Palantir says two former AI engineers stole company secrets. The company named after the object with which Pippin nearly gave away the secret that Frodo and Sam were carrying the One Ring to Mordor has accused two ex-employees of stealing its secrets. Palantir sued two former senior AI engineers, alleging that they stole information to launch a "copycat" company, Percepta, Bloomberg reported. According to the lawsuit, the employees lied about their plans to start a competitor when they resigned in November 2024 and February 2025, respectively. Palantir also claims one of them stole "highly confidential" documents the day before she resigned by sending them to herself on Slack. Percepta's parent company declined to comment to Bloomberg.—AE

Taylor Sheridan is staying at Paramount (sorta) to write a Call of Duty movie. The move heard 'round Hollywood got even spicier yesterday when news broke that writer-producer Taylor Sheridan will in fact still co-write a Call of Duty movie for Paramount, just days after the highly coveted Yellowstone creator reportedly defected to rival NBCUniversal. Earlier this week, The Hollywood Reporter said Sheridan was moving his overall pact from Paramount to NBCU, where his film deal will start next year and his TV deal will kick in in 2028. But apparently not before penning a film adaptation of the US' top-selling video game franchise. Call of Duty has sold more than 500 million copies and generated tens of billions of dollars in revenue.—AE

FINANCE

Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Chipotle logos

Apple, Amazon, Meta, Chipotle

More than 170 companies shared their quarterly vibe checks this week. In case you don't have time to read all their securities filings, here are some standouts.

In the Magnificent Seven:

  • Apple and Amazon beat earnings expectations yesterday. Amazon's cloud business grew faster than expected, while Apple's iPhone revenue from China slightly underperformed.
  • Meta hit a revenue record, but also announced plans to "aggressively" accelerate AI spending next year, scaring bubble-wary investors and obliterating $200+ billion in market value.
  • Microsoft and Alphabet also beat expectations and upped their planned AI expenses. Microsoft's stock shed a few points, but Alphabet's went up.

In retail:

  • Chipotle cut its full-year guidance for the third straight quarter due to declining foot traffic. Its stock tanked 18% yesterday.
  • Hershey said Halloween sales disappointed, but the company lifted its full-year forecast, citing tempering cocoa prices.
  • Crocs lost less money than Wall Street feared.
  • Used-car retailer Carvana logged a 44% increase in vehicle sales, possibly thanks to tariffs.
  • Visa and MasterCard both beat earnings expectations on continued consumer spending.

Grab bag: Caterpillar's stock had one of its best days since the 2000s after reporting strong data center demand for its generators. Roblox's stock slid ~16% yesterday after it said safety and infrastructure expenses will rise.

Today…Chevron and Exxon Mobil chime in from the oil industry. Spooky.—ML

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ENTERTAINMENT

Netflix

Illustration: Nick Iluzada, Photo: Netflix

The US military is addressing a newly identified threat: Kathryn Bigelow's latest movie. A recent Pentagon internal memo disputed the accuracy of her Netflix thriller, A House of Dynamite, which revolves around (spoiler alert) a US defense system failing to intercept a nuclear missile headed for Chicago, Bloomberg reported.

Without critiquing the mise-en-scène, the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency (MDA) had a bone to pick with some of the film's assumptions:

  • It challenged the premise that systems in Alaska and California designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles are only 61% accurate.
  • The memo claims that the film's terrifying coin-flip odds estimate is dated and that there have been improvements, with recent tests showing 100% accuracy.

What does the director say?

Bigelow retorted that she consulted with ex-Pentagon officials for the movie. Military wonks, meanwhile, point out that only the last four tests of the system were successful, but there were three failures in the early 2010s. Plus, they say that two of the recent tests involved shorter-range missiles, which are easier targets than the intercontinental ballistic missile depicted in the movie.

Everyone can agree…that anti-missile tech is expensive, with the current Boeing-managed nuclear missile defense system costing, as of 2020, $53 billion plus another $10 billion in planned upgrades. And MDA plans to spend up to $151 billion building President Trump's proposed "Golden Dome" missile shield.—SK

STAT

An imprint of a penny in the ground with an investigative scene set around it

Illustration: Nick Iluzada

The anti-penny crusaders have won, but at what cost? The lowly copper-plated coin is disappearing from use—and it's causing some headaches for US businesses.

A number of merchants across the country have completely run out of pennies after the US government stopped making them earlier this year and failed to issue new guidance, the Associated Press reported:

  • Sheetz, the convenience store chain that Western Pennsylvanians swear is better than Wawa, ran a promotion offering customers a soda if they brought in 100 pennies.
  • Kwik Trip is rounding every cash transaction down to the nearest nickel, which will reportedly cost the company $3 million this year.

The Treasury Department says the US will save about $56 million by no longer minting Abe Lincoln's face, per the AP. Businesses are generally on board with the decision but want more clarity on how to proceed. "We have been advocating abolition of the penny for 30 years," a spokesperson for the National Association of Convenience Stores told the AP. "But this is not the way we wanted it to go."—AE

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QUIZ

The feeling of getting a 5/5 on the Brew's Weekly News Quiz has been compared to when someone compliments your Halloween costume that you threw together in a panic at the last minute.

It's that satisfying. Ace the quiz.

NEWS

  • The US government shutdown has cost contractors that do business with the government $12 billion so far, according to the Chamber of Commerce.
  • Prince Andrew was stripped of his title and evicted from his royal residence by his brother King Charles III yesterday over the former's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.
  • Netflix announced a 10-for-1 stock split, which could make its shares more accessible to the average investor.
  • Old Navy is launching a beauty line that includes brightly colored "hair & body mists."
  • The IOC and Saudi Arabia canceled their 12-year contract to host the Esports Olympics in Riyadh, saying they "mutually agreed" to end it, without elaborating.
  • AOL, the web portal where millennials slowly waited for images of their favorite pop stars to load in the late 1990s and early 2000s, was sold to the Italian software company Bending Spoons for $1.5 billion.

RECS

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Gift: Check out the Brew's best recs for your outdoorsy friends this season.**

Keep time: A map of the US states that might make daylight saving time permanent.

Size up: A tool that compares clothing sizes across brands.

Watch: The official trailer for the final season of Stranger Things.

Impressions and obsessions: Your campaigns deserve to run in the series, movies, and live sports audiences love. Disney Campaign Manager makes it easy to advertise across Disney+, ESPN, and Hulu streaming platforms.*

From airplanes to billboards: What can be the most effective space to advertise your shiny new product? Watch this little brainstorm sesh to find out.*

*A message from our sponsor. **This article contains product recommendations from our writers. When you buy through these links, Morning Brew may earn a commission.

PLAY

Decipher: Horror movie buffs may know this spooky movie quote. Try it here.

Friday puzzle

Here's a game invented by our puzzle maestro, Jack. You are about to see a list of things in a specific order based on one metric. What metric did we use to order them?

1. Salt

2. Sunscreen

3. Cereal

4. The Moderna Covid vaccine

5. Avocados

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ANSWER

Shelf life (longest to shortest).

Word of the Day

Today's Word of the Day is: mise-en-scène, meaning "the arrangement of scenery and actors in a play or film production." Thanks to JJ from Ticonderoga, NY, for the suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

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