Trump Enters The Budget Debate In A Weak Position, A Conversation With Alaska Dem Chair Eric CroftKeep voting good people of Virginia. Don't wait, vote today and let's win this thing in the early vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We’ve learned that some subscribers did not receive yesterday’s post. So I am sending it to everyone this morning, and apologize to those of you who will receive it twice. A regular Sunday post will come later this morning. Happy Sunday! - Simon Afternoon and morning all. In my new post and video I talk about what I call the “vicious cycle of a failing strongman” - that as the failure of his government becomes impossible to hide, his health declines, and he grows more and more unpopular rather than course correcting Trump and his regime are lashing out, escalating and cracking down. It is a vicious cycle for the country, but also for his political project for as he escalates and acts more like an impulsive despot rather than a President opposition to him grows and his hold over the electorate weakens. In essence he is escalating because he is weak and his powers are ebbing, not because he is strong. Each time we’ve gotten these spasms of escalation - the invasion of cities, the bombing of Iran, the wanton firing of prominent government officials, the killing of guys on small boats in the Caribbean, the destructive tariffs, the red carpet for Putin, the knocking off of his public critics - we wait and see how the public will react. I believe that Trump believes that these demonstrations of his POWER, STRENGTH and MANLINESS will cause the American people to rally to him. And yet, each time, they don’t, and he grows more unpopular. Here are the major independent polls we received in the past few days after his latest escalation in the aftermath of the tragic killing of Charlie Kirk - soaring levels of unpopularity:
It is a pattern that just repeats again and again - he escalates, the public rejects it, and he grows more unpopular and distant from all of us. Here’s our weekly breakout of the Economist/YouGov data. It’s staggering levels of decline and erosion:
G. Elliott Morris has written about the unprecedented intensity of the opposition Trump now faces, intensity that is showing up in our repeated overperformance in special and local elections this year and in our sturdy leads in the NJ and VA gubernatorial races. These new polls also show how incredibly unhappy the country is not just with him but with his agenda, even in areas that the chatter tells us are areas of strength for him. Here’s AP-NORC with crime at (-7) and immigration at (-13):
The new Washington Post-Ipsos poll has similar data - crime -10, immigration -11:
Here’s G. Elliott Morris’s latest issue tracker (and note throughout all polls the issue with the greatest intensity and where Trump performs the worst is inflation/prices/trade/tariffs):
What this shows is that despite their enormous information superiority Trump is not winning any sustained argument with public with perhaps the exception of “border security,” and even there he is not consistently above water in recent polling. Three more bits of data that suggest Democrats are right to believe they can win a sustained argument with Trump on the budget this fall and winter. From Navigator Research:
From Washington Post-Ipsos:
Also from WaPo-Ipsos:
As we discussed yesterday we’ve seen far more ambition from Congressional Democrats this week then we’ve seen all year, and given the extraordinary budget debate to come, it is the right time for us to be finding a higher gear. While I am optimistic about winning this debate in the coming months with a weakened, failing and unpopular leader, it is my belief we will need to make this debate about more than health care (as important as that is), and create a far more comprehensive and politically potent narrative about why he is failing the country, the American people and our democracy. For more on making our narrative bigger head here, here, and here, and expect more on that from me in the coming days. Rest up and get ready peeps. The big debate over the budget has begun and it is one we simply must win. Enjoy My Interview With Eric Croft, The Chairman Of The Alaska Democratic Party - Today I am excited to share the fourth interview in our series with the state party chairs of our new audacious expansion states, this one with Eric Croft, the new Chairman of the Alaska Democratic Party. A recording and transcript are above. In a lively and informative discussion Chair Croft gives us a terrific overview of the current political landscape in Alaska. It is a state where far right politics has been repeatedly challenged by a coalition of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans, leaving the incumbent MAGA Senator, Dan Sullivan, out of step with Alaska voters and recent trends. Chair Croft expresses confidence that if the most popular Democrat in the state, former Rep. Mary Peltola, gets into the Senate race we will have a shot at making it competitive next year.
As we discuss the investment we are making in the Alaska Democratic Party now, early, will make it far more likely that we can make this race competitive and give us a chance of flipping the Senate next year. The Chair talks very directly about why our investment in Alaska matters and the impact it will have in strengthening their operations next year. A reminder that one of our Senate SuperPACs went up with this hard-hitting tariff ad in Alaska this week, a sign that the national investment required to make this race competitive has begun:  Get to this interview with Chair Croft when you can. It’s a great on-the-ground report on the current state of our politics in a place that may become one of the central battlegrounds in 2026. And thanks to everyone who has contributed so far to our Audacious Expansion Fund. We’ve raised over $22,000 so far. Amazing! Now…… Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Support Our 2026 Candidates
Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025. Take Action, Express Your Love Of Country And Strengthen Our Democracy Through Good Works (only room for one today!): 1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your reps work to
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see! Let’s keep working hard all for as Robert Frost told us “the best way out is always through” - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Sunday, September 21, 2025
Trump Enters The Budget Debate In A Weak Position, A Conversation With Alaska Dem Chair Eric Croft
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