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Our Recommendations To Congressional Dems, 2 Brutal Polls For Trump, Trump Is Weak Not Strong

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Simon Rosenberg

Sep 8

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Morning all. It’s been our core take these past few weeks that Trump’s powers are ebbing, he is growing more desperate and dangerous, and that Dems must keep finding a higher gear not just to win back power through elections but to mitigate the extraordinary damage he’s doing to the country. Beating Trump in the 2026 elections starts with “winning the fall” right now. For he is weakened and struggling, and we need to be on offense, prosecuting our advantage, making our case, acting like proud patriots defending this great nation against this unprecendented and historic attack. We have an opportunity now and need to seize it, together.

Two weeks ago I wrote a comprehensive post that made 3 recommendations to Congressional Dems for how to approach the fall: 1) move to a 24/7/365 comms posture, hitting him on all fronts every day 2) create a loose national coordinating council of leading Democrats to deepen and strengthen our movement, make it harder for him to isolate us, for we are strong together than apart 3) work towards forging a new national narrative and agenda for the pro-democracy movement to counter his “Making America Great Again.”

If you have not read that post - or need a refresher - I would strongly recommend reading it this morning.

From that post came our current four part agenda that we’ve been asking Congress to embrace (and many thanks to all of you who have contacting Senate and House offices in recent weeks):

Roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, are modern day “taxation with represetation,” hurting small businesses and farmers, and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Block the expansion of ICE and the use of the military on our streets including DC
End Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; demand the removal of extremist Robert Kennedy from HHS - yes we need to FIRE HIM
Stand with Ukraine and block Trump’s ongoing efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China

I don’t know how much of this we can get done in the months ahead but it certainly seems like these four things, or something similar, should be what we are fighting for now. And if Congressional Dems were to adopt such an agenda, one appropriate for the battle in front of us not the one we wish we had, I am reasonably certain that governors, leading Dems across the country and the Dem grassroots would rally and line up to fight along side our leaders to get as much of it enacted as possible.

For we have to enter the fall with a clear understanding that Trump is a weakened and diminished figure; he is deeply unpopular as his agenda; the many manifest failures of his regime have become impossible to ignore or bullshit away; we keep winning and overperforming in elections across the country; that they are signaling retreat on the big ugly bill, ACA subsidy cuts, and Kennedy’s extremist agenda; and thus now is a time to go on offense and not a time to play it safe. For as historian Danial Ziblatt reminds us about the early days of Hitler principled compromise with an authoritarian can become ruinous appeasement.

Look at the new NBC and CBS polling we received yesterday. Simply, it’s all terrible for Trump. He is deeply underwater with voters as is his agenda. In the NBC poll Trump is now even underwater on border security. And despite some idiotic commentary from Democratic analysts he is also deeply, deeply underwater on his invasion of American cities:

His terrible tariffs keep getting more and more unpopular:

Look where independents are here - minus 42!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

These polls are very consistent with other recent polls from Economist/YouGov, Strength In Numbers, Civiqs and others. They all tell the same story - Trump is in significant political decline, and can no longer rally the country behind any of his major initiatives. His 2024 coalition has unraveled, and he is now -38 with moderate voters:

Every single major thing he has tried since early June has gone immediately negative, and as G. Elliot Morris explained on Friday the intensity of the opposition to Trump and his agenda - vitally important for elections - has hit record levels:

I am quoted in a terrific new Greg Sargent New Republic article this morning that dives into all these themes and reports on some new polling from the Senate Majority PAC. Here’s my quote:

“Democrats need to attack this dimension of Trumpism—the essential story Trumpworld tells about him being ‘strong,’” says Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who often argues for this. “The way they see politics is they operate in the strong-weak, winning-losing framework. We have to understand that and take it away from them.”

Here’s the new data and analysis from SMP:

All this suggests that Democrats have a fresh opening to undermine the foundation of Trump’s political strength by portraying him as a politically weak, failing, diminished, naked-emperor figure—and some new internal polling conducted by Senate Democrats hints at why.
The polling—conducted for the Senate Majority PAC and provided to The New Republic—probes voter attitudes toward Trump, his tariffs, and the economy. It finds that 56 percent of likely 2026 midterm voters nationally say Trump’s tariffs are hurting the economy overall, with 44 percent saying they’re hurting a lot. Only 32 percent say they’re helping. Among swing voters—defined as voters who switched in either direction from 2020 to 2024—57 percent say they’re hurting.
What’s more, the poll finds that 48 percent of overall likely 2026 voters say Trump’s tariffs are hurting their own economic situation, versus only 29 percent who say they’re not having any effect and an abysmal 8 percent who say the tariffs are helping their economic prospects.
Critically, the poll—undertaken by the Democratic firm Blue Rose Research, which surveyed over 10,000 people via web panel—also sought to gauge how all this is resonating with perceptions of Trump’s strength. It tested two messages, and found this:
Which of the following statements do you agree with more? President Trump’s tariffs make me think he is…
A strong leader taking on tough fights for America: 39 percent
A reckless leader making life more expensive for ordinary Americans: 51 percent
On tariffs, a majority of likely 2026 voters see Trump as a “reckless” leader and not a “strong” one. And among swing voters, that’s 50 to 32, reckless over strong.

As I told Greg Trump and his agenda are wildly unpopular. He is not in a position of strength on any issue. Now we must strategically and ferociously take away the last remaining foundation of his brand positioning - that is he strong and a fighter. For we need to him to be

Weak not strong. A loser not a winner. A failure not a success. A villain not a hero. A traitor not a patriot.
A big blubbery baby man, anything, anything but a strong man like his heros Putin, Xi and Kim who didn’t invite him to their big party last week.

Yes more imagery like this:

And more ads like this one, “Bold Leadership,” from Mikie Sherrill:

For as we’ve been discussing here for the past several months, Democrats must learn how to operate more effectively operate in the dimension of politics that Trump has dominated - strong leader/weak leader, winning and losing (ahead in the polls he always is), is powerful enough to “bring needed change.” From the 2024 Exit Polls:

On Friday Leader Schumer released a statement pledging to challenge the Rs far more forcefully on the #1 issue on our agenda, tariffs:

“In the coming weeks, Senate Democrats will force votes to reverse Donald Trump’s damaging tariffs and we will see whose side Republicans are on. I hope Republicans will choose wisely.”

This is a welcome development. It’s a clear sign that Leader Schumer is working to find a higher gear for Senate Dems, understands that we must be strong now, not weak.

Let us take this win everyone and spend our time in the coming days encouraging Congressional Dems to keep going, keep finding those higher gears, keep challenging Trump far more forcefully, to understand and seize the opportunity in front of us, and together to do everything we possibly can to win the fall - to win the fall for our kids and grandkids, and kids and grandkids of all the people of the world.

For we are Americans and fighting for freedom and democracy is what we do. It is who we are……

Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Support Our November, 2025 Candidates

Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $70k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $183k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger

Support Our 2026 Candidates

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $32,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interviews with Gov. Cooper and NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $58k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $195k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents

Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.

Take Action, Express Your Love Of Country Through Good Works - We are prioritizing two actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your reps work to

Roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Block the expansion of ICE and the use of the military on our streets including DC
End Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; stop the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; demand the removal of extremist Robert Kennedy from HHS - yes we need to FIRE HIM
Stand with Ukraine and block Trump’s ongoing efforts to sell out the US

2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.

Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 75 (!!!!) resolutions projects in 23 states +DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!

As we get ready for what is going to be a very intense fall of politics let’s take inspiration from those famous words from Robert Frost that “the best way out is always through” - Simon

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