In partnership with | | | | Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Subscribe here | | June 14 was a day of stark contrasts and dueling narratives. As President Trump staged a military parade and tanks squeaked down Constitution Avenue, millions of Americans — from Bangor to Beverly Hills — marched in the streets to protest. Trump celebrated the country's military might (and his 79th birthday), vowing to crush foreign adversaries that threaten the U.S. and use "heavy force" to stop any domestic protesters who stood in his way. The peaceful resistance movement in 2,100 cities and towns across America had a simple message: No thrones. No crowns. No kings. | The clash between hardware and software made strikingly clear that putting tanks and troops on your own roads isn't a sign of strength, but weakness. There are three firewalls between a democracy and autocracy: the courts, the media, and the citizenry. The GOP represents the 1% at the cost of the 99%. The Democrats are more interested in grasping for social virtue than improving the material and emotional well-being of Americans. When your representatives won't represent, you become your own delegation. | No Kings | Attendance at Trump's parade to commemorate the U.S. Army's 250th anniversary appeared to fall far short of the White House's estimate of 250,000 people. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's yawn, captured on camera, said it all. The celebration, brought to you by sponsors such as Coinbase and Palantir, was a sad spectacle. The event had the cool factor of your drunk uncle showing off his karate moves at Thanksgiving. I wonder if what ultimately limits the damage of this clearance-rack autocrat isn't the courts or the 10-year bond, but just how lame he is. | The No Kings campaign was a dramatically different story. A widely-cited analysis from data journalist G. Elliott Morris estimates that 4 million to 6 million people participated in the protests. That represents 1.2% to 1.8% of the U.S. population and makes it one of the largest single-day protests in American history, probably even bigger than the 2017 Women's March, when more than 4 million people showed up at demonstrations around the country. Supported by a long list of organizations, from the American Civil Liberties Union to the Service Employees International Union, the rallies were deftly timed to divert the spotlight from 47's show. TV networks had no choice but to cut to the protesters chanting, dancing, and marching shoulder to shoulder. America got a split screen: bottle service at Applebee's vs. Bagatelle in Saint-Tropez. | | The 3.5% Rule | The No Kings turnout was significant, even if it didn't reach a critical threshold. When at least 3.5% of a country's population actively engages in a peaceful protest movement, it has always resulted in political change, according to Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist and professor at Harvard. Chenoweth analyzed 323 nonviolent and violent mobilizations between 1900 and 2006, highlighting a range of campaigns, including the People Power movement against the Ferdinand Marcos regime in the Philippines in 1986; the Rose Revolution in 2003, in which the people of Georgia ousted Eduard Shevardnadze; and an uprising in Sudan in 2019 that forced its president of 30 years, Omar al-Bashir, to step down. She also concluded that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent movements. Every senior — in every high school, in every country — should be forced to read the previous sentence 100 times. | | Tesla Takedown | In an interview on Pod Save America earlier this week, Chenoweth said protest campaigns that fulfill their objectives and ignite change have similar characteristics: They are united, inclusive, highly organized, and disciplined — they stick to their strategy without getting baited into defending and debating their tactics. These campaigns of nonviolent resistance, she said, can take several different forms, including boycotts. The backlash against Tesla and Elon Musk is a case in point. Since the "Tesla Takedown" began, organizers have encouraged consumers to boycott Tesla by selling their cars, as well as their stock, while protesters have staged demonstrations at factories and showrooms to condemn Musk and his political activities, contributing to a plunge in Tesla sales in key markets. Protesters seem to agree that Musk's politics are bad for America. We need to continue to make them bad for his business. | | Defections | The 3.5% estimate isn't a magic number. Campaigns will lose steam quickly if they attempt to hit the target without a clear strategy to sustain their momentum. Resistance movements must go beyond street demonstrations (which are often difficult to coordinate and risky) and shift to the business and economic realm. Chenoweth pointed to boycotts in apartheid-era South Africa, which created an economic crisis that contributed to the end of segregation in the early 1990s. "The most important thing that nonviolent movements are able to do," she said, "is build enough political power and influence — and sometimes economic, social, and cultural power and influence — that they begin to elicit defections from opponents' pillars of support." | When it comes to taking on the administration, protesters could use some help from business leaders, many of whom have remained quiet for fear of retaliation. The protest movement will need to persuade companies that Trump's actions, including his tariff policies, are harming their businesses and threatening the economy. I believe this is one of the biggest opportunities in the consumer market in a decade: The first business leaders to join the cause could reap significant reputational — and commercial — benefits. | Tyranny's Fashion Show | The first stage-managed displays of military prowess date back to ancient times. Mesopotamian emperors decorated their palaces with friezes depicting their victories, while portraits showed rulers leading their troops into battle or crushing their opponents' skulls, according to the Guardian. Roman generals also famously loved military parades. In recent decades, Cuba's Fidel Castro held parades to commemorate the revolution he led in 1959. And North Korea's Kim Jong Un, who bonded with Trump in 2018, used a 2023 military parade featuring weapons and goose-stepping soldiers to flaunt parts of his country's nuclear arsenal — and introduce his daughter and potential successor. Earlier this year, China's Xi Jinping joined Vladimir Putin in Red Square for Russia's annual "Victory Day" parade. Beijing's one-party government holds its National Day Parade every 10 years, showcasing trucks carrying nuclear missiles and other weaponry. | It's not just authoritarian states that throw themselves parades. Just last Saturday, in Britain, King Charles III and members of the royal family appeared at Trooping the Colour, an annual parade and troop inspection to mark the monarch's official birthday. | Competitive Authoritarianism | The chihuahua barking at his own reflection may provide a torrent of fodder for comedians, but it shouldn't be dismissed as a joke. It's another sign of a country descending into kleptocracy and fascism. The military parade — the first of its kind since U.S. troops returned from the Gulf War in 1991 — capped an unsettling week in which Trump deployed the Marines not to a foreign country but to the streets of Los Angeles, to quell "protests." God, what bullshit. The autocrats' playbook is to manifest an "enemy within": immigrants, the media, and academics. Before invading Poland in 1939, Hitler invaded the freedoms of his own citizens. Democracy is under siege and at risk of unraveling as the U.S. slides toward "competitive authoritarianism," a system in which elections remain important, but the incumbents manipulate the rules, abuse their power, and tilt the playing field against their rivals. | Fighting for Democracy | Despite the "toxic uncertainty" in the economy, threats to American values and rule of law, cruel/weird immigration policies, tax cuts for the rich, and unprecedented grift, you might still believe American democracy is inevitable. Don't bank on it. | Scholars have worried about a global rise in "democratic backsliding," as leaders with autocratic tendencies curtail freedoms and consolidate power. One study found that more than two-thirds of the 96 countries which experienced those backsliding episodes between 1900 and 2019 completely broke down into authoritarian rule. | Real Strength | There are signs of hope. Research also shows that over the past three decades about 70% of the countries that descended into autocracy managed to mount a democratic turnaround. In many cases, those fights to reverse the damage led to restored, or even stronger, levels of democracy. I'm aligned with historian Timothy Snyder, who told me last month on the Prof G pod that he's optimistic about the American protest movement. The No Kings rallies bode well for the next stages of the resistance. Dictators and aspiring autocrats who roll out tanks on their own streets may be dangerous. But history shows they're no match for a united, organized, and creative opposition campaign. Trump spent his birthday trying to cosplay as a strongman, while millions of Americans demonstrated what actual strength looks like. This was the desperate performance of a man who confuses attention with respect. The marches proved Trump may be able to rent tanks, but he can't buy legitimacy. In sum, America showed up. | Life is so rich, | | P.S. The Prof G Markets pod now provides analysis (and cringe jokes) every Monday through Friday. Keep up with the news and tell everyone you know to subscribe. | ____________sponsored content ____________ |
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