Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 583

NO. 583   FREE EDITION   SUNDAY 16 MAR 2025
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In The Sound of the Future, digital innovation leader and President of TELUS Digital Tobias Dengel reveals how voice-first interfaces will reshape business and society. Powered by generative AI, this shift promises a tech boom as transformative as the internet in the 1990s and the mobile revolution in the 2010s.

My work

Apple innovation and disruption

It matters that Apple's new Siri will be late, and it matters more that Apple didn't realise. Is it more than that? LINK

What kind of disruption?

Software ate the world. Uber and Airbnb didn't sell software - they disrupted and redefined markets. But what kind of disruption are we talking about? LINK

News

Google does Robots

It seems like AI accelerating robotics is one of the stories of 2025, and this week Google announced that it's using its Gemini models for robots too. The cool part of this is humanoid (or quadruped) robots that don't fall over (where going to electric from hydraulic is also a big change), but I suspect the idea of more old-fashioned form factors that can now be much more flexible might open up more use cases? Another angle, meanwhile, is the idea that some kind of physical embodiment (or at least learning from the physical world) will be needed to take AI itself forward (on the theory that learning from text will top-out). LINK

Better, faster, cheaper...

Google released version 3 of its 'Gemma' open source models, claiming that it can outperform OpenAI's o3-mini while running only on a single GPU. I don't write up every model release (that would barely be possible), but there seem to be two directions of travel here - 'everything will run on city-sized AI factories' and 'this stuff will run on your phone. I don't believe both of these will happen. LINK

White smoke from Intel

Intel has chosen a new CEO to lead a turn-around: Lip-Bu Tan, a semis veteran and VC who turned around Cadence. He says he plans for Intel to continue as a foundry. Meanwhile, he will also have to work out what Trump is doing with the CHIPS Act. LINKCHIPS

The week in AI

Sam Altman says OpenAI has trained a model that can write better fiction, as part of the general push towards 'creativity' (see last week's column). And yet, his example seems so predictable. LINK

As it rebalances its infrastructure away from Microsoft, OpenAI has signed a $11.9bn five year contact with CoreWeave ahead of its IPO, also taking a $350m stake. Is this a tech company or an SPV? LINK

As Meta tries to catch up to the hyperscalers on AI datacenter infrastructure, it is (finally) testing its own AI silicon. LINK

The NY Times put a number on Google's stake in Anthropic: 14%, as per a lawsuit, with a cap of 15% and no votes or board seat. LINK

OpenAI's latest lobbying push

OpenAI is pivoting from asking Biden to ban open source to asking Trump to liberalise copyrights for training data and for the US to treat AI as a central part of its geopolitical competition with China. Tell me the audience and I will tell you the argument for less competition. (It also called the company 'state-controlled', which annoyed some people but is sadly a truism in describing any Chinese company that attracts the state's attention.) LINK

DeepSeek's travel bans 

Conversely, DeepSeek is apparently now banning its researchers for leaving the country, which is ironic given that the loudest US voices were claiming that DeepSeek did little more than rip off Llama and OpenAI. The truth, I think, is that a technology can be both a generic commodity in a rush to the bottom and also involve a lot of capex and a lot of very hard engineering (think of screens, say, or cloud hosting)LINK

Trump Antitrust

There was a brief moment when some people argued that Trump's election meant that regulatory pressure on 'big tech' would be relieved. Nope: MAGA republicans were just as suspicious of big tech companies, though not always for the same reasons. Now the FTC is pushing forward with a wide investigation into Microsoft. (Ironically, the place where Trump's election might lead to weaker tech regulation is the EU.) LINK

Pokemon Go sells

Niantic Labs sold its games division, including Pokemon Go, to Scopely, a games buyout house backed by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund. The underlying geospatial tech will be spun out into a new company (which presumably has big hopes for AR glasses). Remember when Angry Birds was the hot mobile games thing? LINK

Meta's fact-checking replacement launches

Earlier this year Meta gave up on its manual, centralised fact-checking programme and said it would replace it with a bottom-up 'community notes' system in which users write and vote on corrections (a similar system is currently in use with limited success on Twitter). A lot of people got very upset about this decision, but the old system was really just theatre: it never checked more than a dozen or two posts a day, because after all, how could it? It was completely unscalable. The new system is theoretically scalable, but comes with its own problems, not least how you balance the voting system. We will see. LINK

About
What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst. Mostly, that means trying to work out what questions to ask.

Ideas

John Gruber, a well-connected and friendly-but-critical Apple blogger, gave Apple both barrels over its 'vapourware' announcement of a new Siri. LINK

Bloomberg has a detailed breakdown of MrBeast. The food business had sales of $250m last year and profits of $20m, where the actual videos had the same revenue and lost $80m. LINK

Everyone is selling AI agents but no-one has the same defintion. LINK

The AI talent wars mean million dollar stock awards and personal attention from Mark Zuckerberg. LINK

Why AI still struggles to extract data from PDFs. LINK

A good case study of why legacy services with modern front-ends still have to go down overnight. LINK

The origin of the term 'prompt injection' - a crucial concept to understand for any public LLM service and one possible cause of Apple's delays. LINK

Outside interests

Christies is selling the art collection of Leonard Riggio, creator of Barnes & Noble. LINK

Data

Spotify's annual report on music spending: $10bn paid out in 2024 and $62bn since it was founded. Key message: 'look how much money we pay to rights holders: if you're unhappy about how it's distributed that's not under our control!" LINK

McKinsey surveyed enterprise AI adoption: what teams, what methods, what delays? LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

New questions 

Pretty much as soon as ChatGPT broke into the tech industry, a bit over two years ago, it was clear that there was a set of central, interlocked questions that determined how this would play out. How long would scaling work, yes, but also, compute needs, barriers to entry and network effects, access to chips (and Nvidia's moat), error rates, China's ability to catch up, the role of startups, the scope and availability of training data… you can probably make your own list, but all of these got you to a range of possible outcomes. 

At one end, if this keeps scaling and keeps getting bigger and more expensive, and the models get more and more capable, then we get something that looks like a handful of giant world computers with dominant market power, that can run most of all of what we do with software today (in a sense this is also the 'doomer' scenario). At the other, recall the old line that AI is whatever doesn't work yet, because once it works it's just software. Machine learning is 'just software' now, and it may be that LLMs end up as just another commodity building block on AWS or your iPhone - that this will end up like databases or spreadsheets.

What's happened since then? 

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