Saturday, March 29, 2025

Are secondaries a liquidity mirage?

Also: How is PE navigating 2025?; The impact of China's $138B high-tech fund; Real estate returns are improving. but fundraising has been harder...
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The Research Pitch
March 29, 2025
Presented by AlixPartners
China's $138B high-tech fund: Our new research note examines China's massive state VC guidance fund, its impact on private capital, and the key factors and risks involved. Read it here.

Lending league tables: Who were 2024's most active lenders in PE deals? Check out our latest rankings.

Tech updates: Grid infrastructure tech and AI-native gaming platforms are two sectors on the rise. To learn more, access our research on clean energy and gaming.
 
A message from AlixPartners  
Navigating leadership challenges: Balancing growth with efficiency
For 10 years, AlixPartners has been publishing groundbreaking research on leadership within private equity (PE) firms and their portfolio companies (portcos). Its latest report highlights how many PE firms and portcos have enhanced their talent management strategies in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Only a few years ago, some firms created a new senior position to manage leadership issues. Today, 62% of PE firms have a Human Capital Partner and 50% of portcos have a Chief Human Resources Officer. Having those roles isn't just for show, firms have better management of CEO turnover, better opinion of leadership quality and better succession planning with those roles in-house.

Read the full report now to learn how leadership is driving value creation
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Are secondaries the future of VC liquidity or just a mirage?
VC's liquidity crunch is dragging into its third year.

In this drought, secondaries have emerged as a potential oasis, offering investors and employees a way to realize returns while startups stay private for longer.

But just how big is this market that's generating so much buzz?

Our latest analyst note puts the size of the US VC direct secondary market at around $50 billion. That's meaningful, but still just a drop in the bucket compared to the $2.9 trillion in unicorn valuations.
 

Despite headlines and hype, secondaries remain a niche play. Most of the action is concentrated among a few top-tier startups—think SpaceX, OpenAI, and Databricks—and hot sectors like AI.

Meanwhile, the rest of the market is still plagued by steep discounts, murky pricing, and fragmented deal processes.

There is reason for optimism: As venture activity picks back up, secondary deal flow could rise alongside it. The recent growth of secondaries has been propelled by first-time venture investors eager for exposure to late-stage winners without the long hold periods.

But let's be clear: secondaries won't dethrone IPOs overnight. For now, they're a tool for the privileged few.

For more data and analysis, download our free research note: Sizing the US VC Secondaries Market
 
Best,

Emily Zheng
Senior Analyst, Venture Capital
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How is PE navigating 2025?
After a turbulent start to 2025, we've revisited our expectations for the PE landscape—and the picture is evolving.

While macroeconomic headwinds, rising consumer and business credit delinquencies, and federal budget imbalances pose challenges, PE firms remain resilient and strategically poised for opportunities ahead.

One bright spot is the healthcare sector, underscored by Sycamore Partners' blockbuster $23.7 billion take-private of Walgreens Boots Alliance—the largest healthcare PE take-private since the global financial crisis.

This highlights renewed optimism driven by easing regulatory pressures. Meanwhile, despite policy shifts and tariff uncertainties under the new Trump administration, GPs are actively deploying capital, ready to leverage market dislocations and eager sellers.

Dive into our new report to understand how PE firms are navigating risks and uncovering attractive opportunities in today's dynamic market environment.

Download it here: Q1 2025 US PE Pulse
 
Best,

Garrett Hinds
Senior Analyst, Private Equity
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Market Updates  

Global Real Estate Report

After a two-year downturn, private real estate returns may finally be turning a corner.

Preliminary Q3 2024 data suggests the sector could be on the mend, but the road to recovery remains unpredictable.
 
Real estate fundraising has gotten more difficult.

Fundraising has yet to rebound for private, closed-end real estate vehicles, with 2024 shaping up to be one of the slowest years in a decade.

Our report unpacks the data and why some investors see opportunity amid the uncertainty:

Read the free report
 
 
Industry & Tech Research  

Emerging Tech Indicator

Our ETI dataset focuses only on early-stage deals made by top-performing venture investors.

No surprise: AI & ML remained the top investment vertical (though its funding slowed). Climate tech also attracted notable capital (nuclear fusion had the biggest deal).
 
7 straight quarters of AI leading our ETI dataset.

Overall, the numbers suggest a market shifting toward fewer but larger deals, signaling strong investor confidence in select, high-impact technologies:

Read the free report
 

Healthcare IT PE Update

PE deal activity in the healthcare IT space approached record levels in Q4, while exits reached their second-highest total since early 2022.

Our new research dives into the biggest deals and trends, including whether more listings could be on the horizon following Waystar's impressive post-IPO performance:

Read the free research
 

Battery Tech: Lithium-Sulfur Batteries

Could sulfur be the secret to breaking China's battery supply chain dominance?

As lithium-ion batteries' limitations become more pronounced, attention is turning to alternatives that could power the next wave of electric mobility.

Our note explores how lithium-sulfur batteries may finally be on the cusp of commercialization:

Read the free research
 
 
Webinars & Events  

A reminder of upcoming events:

April 2: The second of our All In webinars will cover new data on female founders and the broader impact of women in the European VC ecosystem. Register here.

April 9: Where is the US credit market headed in H2? Our webinar will examine Q1 activity in syndicated loans and private credit and present a perspective on what's to come. Register here.
 
 
In the News  
PitchBook's Kyle Stanford talks VC with Yahoo Finance.

Our insights and data featured in the press:

 • Discussing the state of the IPO market and the future of venture capital. [Yahoo Finance via X]

 • Speculative-grade borrowers backed by PE firms took out $384 billion in syndicated loans in 2024, the second-most in a year since 2000. [Bloomberg]

 • A one-third of VC deals these days are going to companies leveraging AI. [Fortune]

 • Global VC investment in healthtech fell to $11.3 billion in 2024, a five-year low. [WSJ Pro]

If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
 
ICYMI  

More of our recent research (* - preview):

Market updates

 • Global Private Debt Report
 • India Market Snapshot
 • US PE Middle Market Report
 • Quantitative Perspectives: US VC

Thematic research

 • Takeaways from the Game Developers Conference
 • Key Takeaways From Expo West 2025
 • Deep Dive into Airline MRO Services*
 • Battery Tech: The State of Solid-State

Industry & tech research

 • Pharma Biotools VC Ecosystem Overview*
 • Enterprise SaaS VC Trends*
 • Tech Landscape: Plant Biotech*
 • Foodtech VC Ecosystem Overview*

Credit research

 • US Credit Markets Weekly Wrap*
 • US High-Yield Bond Weekly Wrap*
 • Global CLO Weekly Wrap
 • Global Distressed Credit Weekly Wrap*
 • US Private Credit & Middle Market Weekly Wrap*

Coming next week (subject to change)

 • PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor: First Look
 • Global PE First Look
 • Global Markets Snapshot: March
 • Vertical Snapshot: SpaceTech*
 • Enterprise SaaS M&A Quarterly Report
 • US banking behemoths doubling down on venture
 
 

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