Sunday, February 2, 2025

Will the clock run out on TikTok?

Also: M&A deal activity is on the rebound, what those benchmarking metrics mean & more
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The Weekend Pitch
February 2, 2025
Presented by Affinity
(Drew Sanders/PitchBook News)
Competition among TikTok's wannabe-acquirers has intensified as they vie to purchase the video app's US business from owner ByteDance.

It remains unclear whether a deal will come of the wooing, but bold parties ranging from celebrities to tech giants are throwing their names in the hat.

I'm Kia Kokalitcheva, and this is The Weekend Pitch. You can reach me at kia.kokalitcheva@pitchbook.com or on X @imkialikethecar.

So far, the bidders include:
  • Jesse Tinsley & co.: A group led by Employer.com founder Jesse Tinsley, along with Roblox CEO David Baszucki, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley and potentially YouTube star Mr. Beast has reportedly secured "significantly" more than $20 billion for its offer, Tinsley told Bloomberg. However, Tinsley added that he's not directly heard back from ByteDance yet.

  • Perplexity: The AI-based search engine startup has reportedly submitted a bid for ByteDance that entails a merger between Perplexity and TikTok US (without the app's content algorithm) to form a new company, according to CNBC. If the new company goes public at a valuation of at least $300 billion, the US government would get to own up to half of it. The exact details of the government's ownership are not clear.

  • Microsoft: The tech giant was in the running to acquire TikTok back in 2020, and Trump told reporters on Monday that Microsoft is in discussions again. He didn't elaborate further on what the company is offering, and the company declined to comment to Bloomberg.

  • Oracle: The company is reportedly meeting with the White House to discuss acquiring a stake in the "tens of billions" in the app, according to NPR. Under the plan, Oracle and other American investors would own the majority of TikTok's business, with the former overseeing all technical and data aspects.

  • Frank McCourt & co.: The former owner of the LA Clippers submitted a bid last month for his internet advocacy group, Project Liberty, to acquire the video app. He's working with investor Kevin O'Leary and World Wide Web inventor Tim Berners-Lee. While he hasn't disclosed the financial terms of the offer, he has said that he wants TikTok to be hosted on technology developed by his nonprofit. He later said he'd be fine with the US government getting 50% ownership of the company, per CNBC.

Several crucial questions remain unanswered:
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A message from Affinity  
Techstars and Affinity: Private capital predictions for 2025
Where are the private markets headed this year? With dealmaker optimism on the rise, that's the topic of discussion when Keith Camhi, Managing Director at Techstars, joins Affinity for a webinar on February 13. He'll discuss his perspective on early and later stage companies—from exit potential to fundraising opportunities—and how firms can continue to close high-quality deals in a tight market.

Join the conversation to learn how investors are turning up the notch on deal sourcing, using AI to tackle data complexities, and differentiating to stand out amidst greater competition. Tune in on February 13.

Register here
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Trivia

The global boom in AI has fueled a comeback in M&A for IT companies, with these deals making up 20.6% of global M&A deal value. What was 2024's IT M&A deal value?

A) $740.7 billion
B) $871.1 billion
C) $348.0 billion
D) $442.8 billion

Find your answer at the bottom of The Weekend Pitch!

M&A dealmaking
levels up

(Vicki Jauron, Babylon and Beyond Photography/Getty Images)
M&A deal activity rebounded in 2024 after two years of subdued dealmaking brought on by volatile macroeconomic conditions.

Our 2024 Annual Global M&A Report, sponsored by Liberty GTS, RSM and Ideals, highlights the recovery across major sectors, with double-digit growth for key regions and stable valuations overall. Amid improved liquidity and lower rates, PE buyers' share of M&A value rose to 42% in 2024, from 39.5% in 2023.

PitchBook analysts anticipate further growth in 2025, as markets are back to a risk-on footing after closing out one of the most turbulent periods since the global financial crisis.
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Benchmarking metrics
(and how to use them)

(Jorg Greuel/Getty Images)
Measuring investment performance isn't as straightforward as it seems.

Some may have heard that you shouldn't compare IRRs to public market indexes, but the explanation was always hard to follow. There are many metrics, so when benchmarking investment performance, it's important to use several, like IRR and multiples, to see the whole picture.

Our latest analyst note covers these more technical questions about different return metrics—including how to calculate them, when to use them and how to understand the value of an investment.
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(VCG/Getty Images)
 

Quote/Unquote

"This is all a wake-up call to these astronomical term sheets of companies that don't make sense."

—Managing director of Thomvest Ventures Umesh Padval telling PitchBook how DeepSeek's rise could undermine the massive valuations of AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic.
 

Stay tuned

Keep an eye out for these insights and research reports coming out this week:
  • Q4 2024 Healthcare Services PE Update
  • Q4 2024 Carbon and Emissions Report
  • Q3 2024 PitchBook Private Capital Indexes
  • Q1 2025 Quant Perspectives: US Market Insights
  • Q4 2024 Enterprise Fintech Report
  • January Global Markets Snapshot
 

Trivia

Answer: A

In 2024 IT M&A deal value reached $740.7 billion, up around 46% year-over-year, and made up 21% of all global M&A value. AI drove much of the dealmaking. As Gregory Williams at KPMG told PitchBook's Jessica Hamlin, "There's an insatiable demand for data center capacity."
 

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This edition of The Weekend Pitch was written by Kia Kokalitcheva and Jacob Robbins. It was edited by Heather West and Ron Prichard.

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