Donald Trump is back in the White House and Republicans control all three branches of government. Democrats have two choices: roll over or fight like hell for everything we care about. Message Box will serve as a resource for every Democrat committed to fighting back against MAGA extremism at every level. In the coming weeks and months, I will focus on three key priorities:
Please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support this work. Thank you for your continued support Dan How to Talk About Trump's Tariffs with Your MAGA-Curious UncleTrump's decision to impose tariff's undermines the core premise of his campaign
Donald Trump promised to implement tariffs on products made outside the United States to enrich the United States. For anyone with an entry-level understanding of economics, trade policy or international relations, this idea was patently absurd. Trump’s many supporters in the business community rationalized their support by arguing that Trump was using the tariffs as leverage in negotiations. In a particularly ironic example, Scott Bessent, Trump’s Treasury Secretary, wrote last year in a letter to investors in his hedge fund:
Well, guess what? Less than two weeks into Trump’s presidency, the tariff gun has been discharged. On Saturday, Trump signed three executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on Mexican and most Canadian imports and 10% on goods from China. The tariffs go into effect on Tuesday. Like most of Trump’s actions, the tariff decision was capricious, based on a fundamental misunderstanding of basic facts, and posed a significant risk to the stability of the economy. Of all of the dumb and dangerous actions over the last two weeks, Trump’s tariffs are most likely to break through to the folks who rarely engage with politics or the news. Hopefully, you will have the opportunity to talk to people about the tariffs and why they matter. Research shows that the most impactful political messaging comes from people you know and trust. My newsletter aims to provide readers with specific, research-based advice on how to talk about politics with friends and family. If you find this post helpful, please share it widely. If you want to support this work, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. How Do Tariffs Work?A tariff is a tax or levy on an imported product charged as a percentage of the product's price. For example, if avocados cost $10 right now, they will cost $12.50 on Tuesday after the 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico goes into effect. Trump repeatedly claimed that Canada, Mexico, and China will pay for the tariffs, but much like Trump’s wall, foreign governments won’t pay a cent. The tax is imposed on the importer — almost always a U.S. company. Trump is correct. The money raised by the tariff — like all taxes — goes to the U.S. Treasury and can be used to fund government programs and pay down debt. However, the U.S. consumer is the one who picks up the tab. The companies simply raise prices to cover the tariffs to protect their profit margins. So, while many people voted for Trump on the hopes that he would lower prices, one of his first major asks will lead to a significant increase. What Products Will Cost More?We import a lot of goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, so the impact of the tariffs will be far reaching. They may lead to instability in the stock market, lower economic growth, and higher inflation — which could lead to interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The other nations will respond in kind, damaging American companies selling goods in those countries. As noted above, American families will feel the brunt of the pain. Here’s a list from the Wall Street Journal (a source your Trump-curious neighbor likely finds credible):
How to Talk About the Tariffs?Polling shows that Americans are concerned about the tariffs — particularly when it comes to Canada and Mexico. They are worried that costs will go up, but Trump’s arguments appeal to voters as well. Voters are open to Trump’s America First nationalism. They’re skeptical of foreign trade and seeming tough — particularly on China — is often a political winner. A Navigator Research poll found that a plurality of voters say higher costs are worth it if they are in service of protecting American manufacturing.
Now, polling like this is an entirely theoretical exercise. Will Americans really be so passionate about protecting domestic manufacturing after a few months of heightened prices? Maybe not. But the results speak to an important point — Trump’s arguments are valuable political currency and as we all know too painfully well, Trump has a huge media advantage. To win this argument, we need to be specific about which prices will go up and why. The tariffs must point to Trump’s chaotic, half-cocked leadership style, as opposed to being part of some protectionist strategy. The folks at Navigator Research put together a handy messaging guide based on their polling.
I want to emphasize two points. First, Trump is grossly bullying Mexico and Canada — two of our closest allies. On Sunday morning, Trump tied the tariffs to his purported efforts to convince Canada to become the 51st state.
It is tempting to defend our allies and talk about how Trump’s treatment of them affects our standing in the world. Do not do that. This argument is about prices, not international relations. Second, we cannot regress into being defenders of free trade and globalism writ large. We will negotiate tough but fair trade agreements that protect American workers and consumers while Trump is trying to help corporations and his billionaire buddies like Elon Musk. Finally, Trump argues these tariffs are taxes on foreign governments (They aren’t!) that can be used to fund our government. He recently suggested replacing the federal income tax with aggressive tariffs:
Now, getting rid of all taxes is absurd. But voters see the appeal in asking China et al. to finance American education, healthcare, the military, and pay down our debt. To win the argument, we need to debate the alternatives. We need to point out that Trump wants to cut taxes for billionaires and corporations. As the Navigator polling shows, we currently have the high ground.
Trump may bail on the tariffs at the first sign of political or economic turbulence. But if he sticks to his guns, he is undermining his core promise to voters and burdening himself with immense political risk. You're currently a free subscriber to The Message Box. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Monday, February 3, 2025
How to Talk About Trump's Tariffs with Your MAGA-Curious Uncle
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