VP Debate Tonight at 9pm, Doing More and Worrying Less, Concepts Of A Plan, Harris Up 5 In New Morning Consult Tra…

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	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more   Watch now   VP Debate Tonight at 9pm, Doing More and Worrying Less, Concepts Of A Plan, Harris Up 5 In New Morning Consult Track Making Calls/Postcarding For Adam Gray (CA-13) Thurday 715pm ET - Join Us! Simon Rosenberg Oct 1   READ IN APP   Happy Tuesday all. It’s October! So much going on! Going to cram a lot in here today. Let’s get to it: Sending Good Vibes to Governor Walz - We are going to spend time tonight with a very good man, Tim Walz, and one of the most odious politicians of our time, JD Vance. As a reminder of who Tim Walz is watch this new video (above) from an interesting new group, Evangelicals for Harris. It is a great way to prep for the debate tonight. And remember folks - because he got his ass kicked so bad a few weeks back big orange baby man is still refusing to debate the Vice President later this month. He’s a rapist, fraudster, traitor, 34 times felon, extremist and a huge blubbery coward too. Harris-Walz Go On Offense on The ACA And Health Care - The campaign has begun a major push on what is one of our strongest issues with voters - health care. Watch and share this new ad, “Concepts Of A Plan.” It is very good. A reminder that today that thanks to the ACA America has the lowest uninsured rate in our history. Upgrade to paid Jessica Tarlov Crushes MAGA On Helene Disaster Response - Just watch this. Jessica Tarlov is a national treasure. I did thousands of appearances on Fox News and know that doing what what she does every day is not easy, and she is so, so good. NYT Endorses Kamala Harris - The opening graphs of the NYT Harris endorsement are something: It is hard to imagine a candidate more unworthy to serve as president of the United States than Donald Trump. He has proved himself morally unfit for an office that asks its occupant to put the good of the nation above self-interest. He has proved himself temperamentally unfit for a role that requires the very qualities — wisdom, honesty, empathy, courage, restraint, humility, discipline — that he most lacks. Those disqualifying characteristics are compounded by everything else that limits his ability to fulfill the duties of the president: his many criminal charges, his advancing age, his fundamental lack of interest in policy and his increasingly bizarre cast of associates. This unequivocal, dispiriting truth — Donald Trump is not fit to be president — should be enough for any voter who cares about the health of our country and the stability of our democracy to deny him re-election. For this reason, regardless of any political disagreements voters might have with her, Kamala Harris is the only patriotic choice for president. 2024 Election, Polling Update - A lot in here today. First, reviews from Montana last night are very good. Folks on our side felt Tester won the debate, hands down. Next, the new Telemundo Latino poll. Question - if we had fallen back with Latinos why are doing so well in heavily Latino places like AZ, FL, NV, TX and in the CA House races? I am skeptical of any of this bad data about Latino voters as we are not seeing commensurate declines for Harris and Dems in places where you would see it in other polling. A 10-15% point swing against Harris with Latinos would put AZ, NV out of play for us, and they are certainly not out of play. Need to keep an eye on this but I am skeptical that we are matching or exceeding our 2020 results with young people and blacks and falling back with Latinos. This week’s Morning Consult tracking poll came in at 51% Harris, 46% Trump (+5), unchanged from last week. A reminder of what credible, serious polls have given us in the last ten days: 52-45 (+7) Echelon 52-46 (+6) ABC 50-44 (+6) Reuters/Ipsos 51-46 (+5) Morning Consult 49-44 (+5) NBC 52-48 (+4) CBS 50-46 (+4) Yahoo 49-46 (+3) Econ/YG This morning a new AARP poll of Pennsylvania found Harris up 3, 50%-47%. This is a big problem for the red wave pollsters who’ve been working the averages in PA in recent days as this poll’s lead pollster is Trump’s own pollster and it has been running VERY Republican the last few years. A reminder that not a single, credible, independent poll has shown Trump ahead in PA over the past month. Not one. And here are a few recent polls we’ve seen in PA in recent weeks (all polls can be found on 538): 51-46 (+5) Bloomberg/MC 51-46 (+5) Quinnipaic 52-47 (+5) MassInc 49-45 (+4) NYT (yes +4 in the New York Times!!!) 50-47 (+3) AARP 49-46 (+3) USAT/Suffolk 49-46 (+3) Morn Consult 50-49 (+1) Emerson What about those Atlas polls, you say? Friends, it is ridiculous that anyone would take seriously a Brazilian based pollster, with opaque “proprietary” methodology, who seldom polls in the US and who drops polls with crazy outlier data and loony cross-tabs. We have lots of experienced American-based pollsters who have years of polling here under their belts. Let’s pay attention to them, as I do above. It’s a sign of how stupid and silly the poll game has become that a foreign based pollster could come into our discourse this late with loony polls and get any attention at all. Upgrade to paid The New York Times has a wonderful new article this morning, Pennsylvania Republicans Lag Democrats In Early Mail Requests. It begins: In the past two election cycles, Republicans have been far less eager to vote by mail than Democrats — and their candidates have suffered because of it. This year, Republicans made Pennsylvania their target for flipping the trend, pledging more than $10 million to persuade G.O.P. voters there to vote by mail in the November election. Early data from the secretary of state’s office shows that they still have a long way to go. As of Monday, Democrats in the state had requested about 881,000 mail ballots, and Republicans had requested 373,000, less than half of the Democratic total and only about a quarter of the total mail ballots requested in the state. While it is still early (the last day to request a mail ballot is Oct. 29), such a large gap shows it is extremely unlikely that Republicans will come close to parity with Democrats in voting by mail in Pennsylvania. It is stark evidence that former President Donald J. Trump’s longstanding criticism of mail-in voting — including misinformation that it is rife with fraud — has had a stubborn and lasting impact. Political parties and campaigns have seen the benefit of getting their voters to cast mail ballots, and cast them early. It shrinks the universe of voters necessary to turn out for Election Day and removes any unpredictability that could come in just a single day of voting, from weather to long lines. Take, for example, the Nevada race for Senate in 2022. Washoe County, home to Reno and the second largest population center in the swing state, was battered by snow, rain and wind on Election Day. Though Nevada mostly votes by mail, plenty of Republicans had vowed to vote in person, taking a lead from Mr. Trump. It is impossible to know who was prevented from voting, but Democrats were able to feel comfortable that more of their voters had already cast a ballot while Republicans scrambled. Adam Laxalt, the Republican candidate, lost by about 8,000 votes. From Politico this am, Republicans Are Starting To Raise Alarms About Trump’s Ground Game: Some battleground state Republicans say they’re worried they see little evidence of Donald Trump’s ground game — and fear it could cost him the election in an exceedingly close race. In interviews, more than a dozen Republican strategists and operatives in presidential battlegrounds voiced serious concerns about what they described as a paltry get-out-the-vote effort by the Trump campaign, an untested strategy of leaning on outside groups to help do field work and a top-of-the-ticket strategy that’s disjointed from the one Republicans down the ballot are running. After years of attempts to mimic Democrats’ Barack Obama-era grassroots organizing model, the GOP is still trying to develop a ground game strategy that can rival their opponents’. And as Harris continues to pour money into her door-to-door efforts, some of the strategists and operatives fear the party’s efforts this year will fall short — potentially hampering Trump in key battlegrounds…… A Michigan-based GOP strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly, described the party’s challenge bluntly: “They are out-matching us in money, in enthusiasm and in the ground game.” From The Washington Post, Democrats Hope Abortion Ballot Initiatives Will Lift All Boats: Abortion rights advocates have proved that voters will pass ballot measures protecting abortion rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, even in conservative states. Voters have approved abortion rights initiatives in each of the four states where they’ve appeared on the ballot since 2022 — and they’ve rejected measures to restrict abortion in three other states. Now some Democrats are betting such measures will help up and down the ballot this year. Measures meant to protect abortion rights will appear on the ballot in 10 states in November, including the presidential swing states of Arizona and Nevada and several states with competitive Senate and House races. Wherever they’ve been on the ballot, we’ve had a significant turnout of folks who care deeply about reproductive freedom,” Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told us. “Folks who turn out understand that the Republican candidates tend to be diametrically opposed to that — and so they vote for the referendum and they vote for the Democratic candidate.” Peters expects Democrats to run several points stronger than they otherwise would in three crucial Senate races in states with abortion measures on the ballot: Arizona, Montana and Nevada. He also said he believes the ballot measure in Florida will help former Democratic congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who’s fighting an uphill battle to unseat Republican Sen. Rick Scott. More on 2024: Watch Vice President Harris’s big economic speech, her new speech on the border and immigration, and her terrific interview with Stephanie Ruhle Catch my latest post and video presentation on the 2024 election, and our wonderful new Closing Strong episode with Harris-Walz Campaign Manager Julie Rodriguez and WI Dem Chair Ben Wikler 4 new trends that are making me even more optimistic See my new talk on the importance of voting on Day 1 and winning it in October No red waving 2024 please - it’s time we talk about all these right-aligned polls in the polling averages We now know that Trump’s abortion bans are killing women Hopium Community Is Doing More, A Whole Lot More, and Worrying A Whole Lot Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Friends, you are incredible. When called, you answered. In the last 2 days we’ve raised over $500,000 for our candidate and state parties, and over $1m in the past week. As you will see below we are nearing on our October 31 targets right now. Honestly, when I set these new goals I thought they would be stretch goals. But here we are, with a month to go, clearly on track to hit these ambitious goals and together make a serious difference this election cycle. We are in October now. 80m postcards start flying today. Without another Presidential debate in the final six weeks our ticket needs other ways to keep generating intensity and interest. That’s why your work, your money, your working your networks matters more than usual. For we have to become the intensity makers. We have to keep talking to voters. We are have to keep bringing it, everyday, as we’ve been doing in these final six weeks. For when we fight, peeps, we win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Harris-Walz For President - $1,141,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties: North Carolina - $681,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We need to keep stepping up for the people of North Carolina!!!!!! Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $421,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego Nebraska/Blue Dot - $219,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today! Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates: Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,401,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $61,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people! Sign up to postcard and call into these critical swing districts in our Hopium Winning The House Thursday series. Next Thursday we are working for Adam Gray (CA-13) starting at 715pm ET and ending at 9pm (note new start time - getting more work in). Register here. Each week in addition to the work we usually hear from the candidate we are working for and I close with a 10 minute update on the election. Join us - it’s where all cool kids are on Thursday nights! Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego: Montana/Jon Tester - $97,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. Amazing work all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $63,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $413,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego Ways you can do even more Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun across the country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats! Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election. Debate Chat and Discussion Tomorrow - I will be sending out a post tonight to start a VP debate chat for paid subscribers around 8pm ET. I will also be hosting a post-debate recap gathering tomorrow at 4pm ET for Hopium paid subscribers. If you are not yet a paid subscriber and want to join either of these activities, hit the link below and sign up! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content here free for all at this critical moment in history. So becoming a paid subscriber to Hopium really matters. Upgrade to paid Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 119,000 strong in our community down the home stretch! Join me in keeping all of the people impacted by Helene in our thoughts and in our hearts today - Simon Upgrade to paid Leave a comment Share You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2024 Simon Rosenberg 5185 MacArthur Blvd, NW #600, Washington, DC 20016 Unsubscribe