Harris Opens Up A Modest Polling Lead, Winning The House With Josh Riley (NY-19), Trump Is A Weak Man Not A Strong ManOur next Hopium Winning The House Thursday is for Kirsten Engel (AZ-6)
Happy Saturday all. Got a few things for you today: I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them - In her first week Vice President Harris drew even with Donald Trump in public polling. This week she opened up a modest lead. Here’s 538’s new polling average:
In the two battleground state polls released this week Harris had leads in AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI, was tied in GA and down just 2 in North Carolina. Our Senate polling remains encouraging throughout the battlegrounds. The Harris campaign has more money, more volunteers and a far superior ground game. All the Senate and House campaigns I spoke to in the last few weeks say they’ve seen a spike in money and volunteers. We’ve seen explosion of pro-Kamala, anti-Trump/Vance organic activity on social media, from Zoom events to lonely couch memes. The Vice President is bringing it, performing at the highest level of the game, strong, confident. Our successful President continues to govern effectively, and get things done for the American people and the people of the world. Fellow Democrats, we had a very good week and it is clearly a new, bluer election. We are on the front foot, on offense and playing to win. This week we have the VP pick and a high energy seven state campaign swing with the new ticket (be sure to catch what will be one of these historic events live if you can). The week after next we have our Convention, which is sure to be raucous and joyful. It is likely that these two events will give us a further boost. And then comes our close with our far superior early vote/GOTV operation, which should also net us another point or two.
Without Biden’s struggles obscuring their ugliness and extremism, Trump and Vance are now far more exposed, and they are really struggling. Trump’s performance at the National Association of Black Journalists was one of the worst moments of Trump’s last 9 years on the national stage. Vance has turned out to be a disastrous pick for Trump, producing a steady stream of outrageous and deeply damaging video and audio from his years blathering on right wing podcasts and at right wing events. He is an odious, pro-Russian, pro-Project 2025 extremist from the Handmaid’s Tale wing of the Republican Party and is dragging down the Republican ticket. Somehow Trump may have picked someone even uglier than him and it is no longer clear how they can generate anything other than negative news for themselves. Trump’s general election narrative was very simple - I am leading in the polls and I am strong and my opponent is weak. I may be a rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon but I am leading in the polls and I am strong and my opponent is weak. I may have the most extreme and dangerous agenda in American history but I am leading in the polls and I am strong and my opponent is weak. I may be profoundly unfit and deeply unwell but I am leading in the polls and and I am strong and my opponent is weak. I may be a racist, bigot, misogynist and a xenophobe but I am leading the polls and I am strong and my opponent is weak. I may have led an armed attack on the Capitol, tried to overturn American democracy for all time and stripped the rights and freedoms away from the women of America but I am leading in the polls and I am strong and my opponent is weak. I may lie about the economy, the border, crime, gas prices, Russia - everything - but I am leading in the polls and I am strong and my opponent is weak. Which is why Harris leading in the polls is so important now. For now she is leading in the polls and she is strong and Trump is weak and he is also a rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon, extremist, unfit and unwell, a racist, bigot, misogynist and a xenophobe, who led an armed attack on the Capitol, tried to overturn American democracy for all time, stripped the rights and freedoms away from the women of America and lies about everything all the time. Vice President Harris’ lead in the polls undermines the strongman construct of the Trump brand. That he is now trailing to a woman, a bi-racial woman of immigrant parents, is even more devastating for his narrative. It’s why he has been so angry, petulant and wild this week - for his ugliness is far more exposed, the rationale for his candidacy has disappeared, he looks far more like yesterday than tomorrow, the curtain has been drawn back on The Wizard and we’ve learned the Orange Emperor is indeed not wearing any clothes and is standing naked and exposed in public for all to see. Today Trump is far more a weak and ugly man than a strong and popular man, and he knows it. We all know it. And now we are all going to work really hard, leave it all on the playing field and kick his MAGA ass this November. I talked about our very good week and these new dynamics in the 2024 election with Alex Wagner on Thursday. Enjoy:  Winning The House With Josh Riley (NY-19) - I am excited to share our eighth interview with one of our Hopium endorsed candidates, Josh Riley. Josh is a very impressive candidate, hustling and working his whole district, raising tons of money, determined, capable, articulate. A recording of our discussion is above, and you can donate to our 11 candidates here, donate to Josh directly or sign up to volunteer for him here. Our next Hopium Winning The House grassroots event is this Thursday at 730pm ET. We will be making calls and writing postcards for Kirsten Engel running in Arizona’s 6th District. We are attempting to streamline and improve these events so they are easier for all involved and we can get more work done. So mark down the time, plan on joining us and look for the new registration links on Tuesday. And thanks again to everyone who came to our inaugural event for Janelle Bynum on Thursday night - it was a lot of fun and a great success. If you are looking for other ways to help us win this November, please consider supporting one of our Hopium back candidates or state parties:
Here’s how you can do even more:
Help Hopium Get to 100,000! - Finally, please help me spread Hopium and grow this plucky community. Use this link to sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber. Note that options for group and gift subscriptions are available to those who want to bring friends and colleagues into the Hopium community. Click on the group and gift tabs here to learn more. To update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. The Hopium community is now over 98,000 strong - help us get to 100,000 this week!
Keep working hard all. It’s how we win - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Saturday, August 3, 2024
Harris Opens Up A Modest Polling Lead, Winning The House With Josh Riley (NY-19), Trump Is A Weak Man Not A Strong…
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