Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 543

NO. 543   FREE EDITION   TUE 4 JUN 2024
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My Work

Ways to think about AGI

How do we think about a fundamentally unknown and unknowable risk, when the experts agree only that they have no idea? LINK

Looking for AI use-cases

We've had ChatGPT for 18 months, but what's it for? What are the use-cases? Why isn't it useful for everyone, right now? Do Large Language Models become universal tools that can do 'any' task, or do we wrap them in single-purpose apps, and build thousands of new companies around that? LINK

News

Google's AI Overview stumble

Google published a blog post giving the obvious explanation for those viral weird answers to AI questions last week. As I wrote, it's not clear to me how much we'll just get used to this ('LLMs are only good for some use cases' and we learn that), how much it invalidates the concept of using LLMs for general search, and how much this was a Google-specific execution failure. LINK

Elon enters the model wars

Elon Musk's xAI raised $6bn at a $24bn valuation to build Yet Another LLM. There are so many $25bn LLM startups now that we're starting to get to real money. Apparently this will be the one that pursues 'truth', prevents AGI from happening, builds AGI, and probably a few other things. We will see - Musk, to put it as neutrally as possible, does not have a good track record in predictions about AI. Meanwhile the company is apparently in talks with Oracle for a $10bn AI training cloud (full of Nvidia chips, of course - maybe it would be quicker just to wire Jenson the money?). NEWS, ANNOUNCEMENT, ORACLE

Everything is hacked

Both Ticketmaster and Santander, the European retail bank, were hacked in the last week, perhaps by the same actor, while Hudson Rock claims that this is linked to a breach at Snowflake (cloud storage). SANTANDER, TICKETMASTER

The week in AI

OpenAI said that it kicked some foreign government misinformation campaigns off its systems. This is also an implicit dig at open source. LINK

Vox and The Atlantic signed AI training data deals with OpenAI. I'm curious about this one - there's not much real-time information (especially for The Atlantic) and yet is the archive big enough to move the needle? LINK

Nvidia has a huge moat, and so, very predictable, there's now a group to try to create an open industry standard for AI datacenter chips in competition. LINK

OpenAI signed PwC as a go-to-market partner. There's a tension in here somewhere - if ChatGPT is so powerful and its utility so obvious, why would you need a systems integrator to turn it into products for actual real enterprises? LINK

Sony Pictures said it out loud: Hollywood studios will use generative AI to cut production costs (even though Hollywood just went through a strike that was partly about this). LINK

Crypto scams

Coinbase, Meta and a bunch of tech companies announced a group to try to do something about the wave of scammers ('pig butchering' etc) that are using social media to find targets and crypto for easy payment to boiler-rooms in Myanmar or west Africa. LINK

Google search leaks

Someone leaked a couple of thousand internal Google Search technical documents. Very exciting for SEO geeks - not yet clear if there's anything earth-shaking for the rest of us? LINK

Google buys Magic Leap?

Close to a decade ago, Magic Leap got a lot of attention (and a small investment from my then-employer, Andreessen Horowitz) for a great AR proof-of-concept that worked in the lab, but it was never able to scale that into a practical, wearable device. Now Google has done a 'strategic deal' (that sounds like a quasi-acquisition). Google seems to have pulled back from VR and AR in the last few years, but this signals continuing intent. Meanwhile, Apple's decision to launch the Vision Pro as a $3500 developer kit (and not to wait for AR optics) shows just how far this space still is from mass-market products with real traction.

Also - a year after the iPhone or iPad launched, everyone wanted to know what Apple would announce for them at WWDC. This year, WWDC (next Monday) is clearly all about generative AI, and no-one is talking about what might come to the Vision Pro. LINK

About

What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst. Mostly, that means trying to work out what questions to ask.

Ideas

There is definitely a growing split between the view deep inside AI companies and Silicon Valley that generative AI is Everything, and a view forming outside that this stuff is certainly very important, but isn't necessarily very useful, yet, outside a fairly narrow set of uses, and a lot more work is needed to get to products. Roughly half of people who've tried ChatGPT never used it again. This is not at all to say that this is all useless or a scam (such views are a good way to spot the idiots) but it does mean that, as ever, the future will take a while. The WSJ captures the mood pretty well. LINK

The obvious argument about newspaper companies doing deals with generative AI: they're selling their future (remember the argument on the same lines about licensing to Netflix?). LINK

Omnicom on the ways Google's AI will be good for Google ad revenue (they would say that, but even so). LINK

A fascinating discussion of how the Fineweb LLM training data set was produced. LINK

A16Z thinks voice agents might make a comeback. LINK

India's election was full of deep fakes. Or is it just 'personalisation at scale'? LINK

A profile of Google's moonshot factory now that people want focus. LINK

India is the Hard School for autonomous cars. LINK

Steven Sinofsky's email memoir (running Office, then running Windows) is now available in print. Self-recommending. LINK

Outside interests

The Grand Palais is reopened. LINK

This rediscovered Caravaggio was worth the trip to Madrid. LINK

RIP the Evening Standard. LINK, COMMENTARY

Data

Reuters Institute data on generative AI adoption and attitudes so far. LINK

Worldpay's annual global payment data report. LINK

US Census data on household tablet ownership. LINK

Luminate data on the end of Peak TV. LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

Generative Search 

One of the strands of excitement around generative ML and LLMs is search. If you can ask a question and get a complete paragraph of text, generated on the fly, that tells you what you want, how does that challenge Google, and 'ten blue links', and how does it challenge the paid search ad model that powers it? This seems to change what search means. Even if Google could (almost certainly) build the same thing, would it matter? 

To begin: I'm not sure how binary this change is, or at least, on which axes it's binary. There are lots of different things that you might be doing when you enter a query, and Google already has lots of different kinds of result. It's been building answers instead of 'ten blue links' for a long time, and 'answers' can be different things, in lots of different paths, from simple 'knowledge graph' questions ("who is X?") to structured data like flights or hotels. Sometimes you know exactly the site you want and use search to get the URL. Sometimes you want options - 'newspaper articles reviewing hotels in Venice', say, or 'recipes for XYZ'. And sometimes, as for flights, you want a bunch of fields and drop-downs - you want an app. 

LLMs might make parts of this much more scalable: instead of Google or 

THIS IS A PREVIEW FROM THE PREMIUM EDITION - PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS GET THE COMPLETE COLUMN EVERY WEEK. YOU SHOULD UPGRADE.
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