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The 2024 election depends on us, and Message Box is a resource for those attempting to persuade the people in their lives to move off the sidelines and vote against Donald Trump and MAGA extremists. I offer political analysis and targeted advice on engaging in political discussions with friends and family who are skeptical of Biden and curious about Trump.

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How Trump's Conviction Could Cost Him the Election

Despite the narrative, polls show that more than enough voters are concerned about sending a convict to the White House

Dan Pfeiffer

May 30

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Donald Trump has been painting outside the legal lines his entire life. He has always believed that the rules do not apply to him and that his money, fame, and power will forever shield him from accountability.

No more.

Yesterday, a jury of his peers convicted Donald Trump on all 34 counts of falsifying business records.

Yes, the former President of the United States and the presumptive Republican nominee is now a convicted felon.

The race between Biden and Trump has festered in the mud for nearly a year. Head-to-head polling remained largely the same, and perceptions of both candidates barely budged despite a series of momentous political and world events.

The felony conviction of Donald Trump is a massive and unprecedented historical event with the potential to shake up the election. As shocking as that is, that’s not a guarantee. The impact of this conviction is up to us.

One of the main purposes of this newsletter is to provide my readers with advice on how to talk to persuade their friends and family to vote against Trump and other MAGA candidates. If you find this post helpful, please share it with the folks in your network.

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1. Don’t Expect the Race to Shift Overnight

A lot of polling shows that a conviction is bad news for Trump. The highly respected Marquette University Law School poll recently did a split-sample. The first group was asked “If it turns out that Donald Trump is found guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?” Biden led Trump 43-39. The other group was asked “If it turns out that Donald Trump is found not guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?” In that group, Trump led 44-38.

Other polls are similar. The exit polls from the Republican Primary repeatedly showed that about a third of GOP primary voters would see Trump as unfit if convicted.

I am skeptical that we will see a big swing in the race in the immediate aftermath of the conviction. The verdict comes when most voters — especially the persuadable ones who will decide the election — are not yet tuned into the race.

Pollsters are notoriously bad at assessing hypothetical situations. And let’s be honest, for as serious as this case is, it’s not as relevant to voters as stealing classified secrets or committing fraud to overturn the election.

We also know that voters have short attention spans, and Trump is very good at distracting people from his problems by creating new ones.

I am not trying to brood on an otherwise joyous day. I am not arguing that a conviction won’t matter. I am arguing that we must make the case against sending a convicted felon back to the White House.

2. Know the Targets

Most upcoming voters plan to decide on the economy, abortion, or immigration. Other voters are very concerned about the prospect of sending a convict to the White House. CNN released a poll in late April that offered some interesting details on the voters who could abandon Trump if convicted:

They tend to be younger than other Trump supporters (64% are younger than 50 compared with 37% of those who would not reconsider), are less likely to be White (49% are people of color compared with 17% of those who would not reconsider), are more apt to report being Biden voters in 2020 (20% of them say they backed Biden in 2020 vs. 6% of those who would not reconsider) and are likelier to acknowledge that Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency four years ago (63% vs. 22% among those who would not reconsider). They are also more apt to be political independents (49% vs. 31%) and ideologically moderate (50% vs. 38%).

Most notable, these are the exact voters who supported Biden in 2020 but are threatening to defect in 2024.

Anyone who voted for Nikki Haley in the primary but is not yet committed to Trump is also a target for a message focusing on Trump’s unfitness for office.

3. Convicted By a Jury of His Peers

Donald Trump considers himself the victim of a plot masterminded by Joe Biden and the Deep State. Even though it’s factually inaccurate and patently absurd, this argument holds some purchase with voters. In the New York Times/Siena poll, 49% of voters and a fifth of Biden 2020 voters don’t believe that Trump can receive a fair trial.

To defuse these arguments, we must explain that a jury approved the indictments and will render the verdict. This fact can help defuse some of the cynicism about the decision. Here’s one way to do that:

The investigation was conducted by law enforcement professionals. The decision to bring the indictment was made by career prosecutors and approved by a jury of Donald Trump’s peers. This jury was selected with input from Donald Trump and his lawyers, and they are the ones who convicted the former President.

4. Call Trump a Convicted Felon at Every Opportunity

This is going to sound basic, but Democrats should refer to Trump as a convicted felon at every opportunity. Repetition is the key to a successful message and we want people to wrestle with the notion of hiring a convicted felon for the most important job in the country.

Most voters don’t like Trump. Many are pulling the lever for him with great reluctance. Trumps’ conviction COULD be the thing that prevents them from doing so.

In a poll from earlier this year, Gallup asked respondents about their willingness to vote for certain types of presidential candidates. Only 29% said they would vote for a candidate charged with a felony and only 23% said they would vote for someone convicted of a felony.

One way to make the decision to elect a convicted felon seem more tangible is to connect it to real world situations. To that end, this ad from Republican Voters Against Trump was a clever way to focus on the absolutely absurd thing Trump is asking of voters.

For all of his false bravado, Trump was clearly about to wet himself with fear over this verdict. He knows political death may be imminent. It will be in the first paragraph of his obituary no matter what happens in November. Being branded a felon bothers him.

Democratic messaging doesn’t need to trigger Trump into reacting, but calling him a convicted felon at every opportunity has the added benefit of being persuasive with voters (and royally pissing off the convict at the same time).

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