Saturday, May 4, 2024

Does experience matter?

Also: Forecasting private capital's path to $20 trillion in AUM; Recapping market performance in April; Can payments re-energize enterprise fintech?
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The Research Pitch
May 4, 2024
Presented by AlixPartners
Private capital's path to $20T: The growth of private capital over the past decade has been remarkable. Our new research forecasts AUM growth over the next five years for seven key strategies we cover. Read it here.

April performance: "Cloudy with a chance of economic turbulence." That's the latest forecast from our Global Market Snapshot, which breaks down a month of trends in the equity, debt, and commodities markets. Read it here.

A fintech slump: Can payments re-energize enterprise fintech? VC activity in the vertical has hit lows since 2018, but startups working on sector-specific payment solutions are emerging. Preview our premium research.
 
A message from AlixPartners  
Leadership and the future of value creation
It's time to deliver. That's the clear message from both private-equity (PE) investors and the leaders of PE-owned portfolio companies. Coming out of a period of unprecedented turmoil, industry executives are focusing on achieving enterprise-value milestones, meeting top-line growth goals, and protecting margins. Read more to learn the six actions the PE industry needs to take to elevate leadership practices and quickly increase enterprise value.

Read the report
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Does experience matter?
The building blocks of private market portfolios are the external fund managers investing capital on LPs' behalf.

How an LP chooses to construct its portfolio with those building blocks is vital to achieving return goals within an acceptable risk profile.

As allocator budgets for private markets have increasingly tightened amid a slowdown in distributions, many LPs have leaned toward the perceived safety of established firms with proven track records and stable returns.

That's left emerging managers struggling to raise funds and an increasing consolidation of capital into the hands of large, multistrategy firms.

However, is this shift in LPs' interest?

Emerging managers (those with 3 or fewer fund launches) often carve out niche strategies that allow them to exploit opportunities not readily available to larger, more established firms (4+ funds). These can include technology specialization in VC, regional focus in real estate, or under-tapped, smaller buyout opportunities in PE.

The size and agility of these funds often result in a wider dispersion of returns, which, while implying higher risk, also suggest a significant potential for higher rewards.

Spanning buyout, VC, real estate, and private debt strategies, our data indicates that portfolios constructed of emerging managers could, in many cases, have outperformed those constructed solely of established firms—and with lower downside via diversification.

The findings are not without nuance, though. For buyout funds, emerging managers have only recently seen a more pronounced upside over established GP peers, stemming from ballooning fund sizes of mature PE firms.

In VC, specialist managers, regardless of firm experience, have tended to be the winners compared with generalists. And in real estate and private debt, recent outperformance of emerging manager portfolios hasn't necessarily been consistent with history.
 
Click for a larger view of this chart on VC fund performance.

For LPs, the decision to invest in emerging versus established managers should not be a binary one. A strategic blend of both can potentially harness the strengths of each.

Emerging managers can offer thematic exposures and greater alignment of interest, while established managers provide stability and experience.

In our analysis, we also introduce an added wrinkle: the performance of "ancillary," offshoot funds of multistrategy firms, providing key data for how LPs should consider the risk/return characteristics of newly launched products offered from their established partners.

It is essential for LPs to remain open to the evolving dynamics and potential of different fund managers. While the current environment poses challenges, it also presents opportunities for those willing to engage with the full spectrum of possibilities in their manager selection process.

For more on our analysis, please download our analyst note, Establishing a Case for Emerging Managers.

As always, we welcome any questions or feedback.
 
Have a great weekend,

Zane Carmean, CFA, CAIA
Lead Analyst, Quantitative and Funds Research
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Industry & Tech Research  
 
Generalist VCs are leaving the information security sector to specialist investors after piling in during 2021's frenzy.

Our latest Information Security Report covers the highs and lows of Q1's activity, from mega-deals to down rounds.

New opportunities on our radar include cloud detection & response and industrial zero-trust access management:
read a free preview
 
 
Valuations in the agtech industry leveled out in Q1 as VC froth has largely subsided from the past few years.

The median VC deal size was up 35% year-over-year—an indicator that more deals are concentrated in late-stage companies—according to our new Agtech Report.

The research also dives into the emerging opportunity within agribusiness marketplaces:
read a free preview
 
 
Infrastructure, industry, and renewable battery deals are hot commodities, and median pre-money valuations appear to be rising across the board.

Our new Carbon & Emissions Tech Report dives into the latest VC data and illustrates how climate tech startups are developing more sophisticated carbon-storage solutions:
read a free preview
 
 
Webinars & Events  

Save these dates!

May 9-10: Visit us in Fort Lauderdale at the Private Credit Industry Conference, where our head of credit research Marina Lukatsky will join a discussion on documentation and deal structuring. Also, don't miss our Tech Talk highlighting the state of private credit. Register here.

May 15: Our new Allocator's Atlas webinar series is designed for LPs and we'll kick it off with a panel on how macroeconomic challenges have affected private capital returns. Register here.

May 15: The European leveraged credit markets got off to a roaring start in Q1. Join our credit team as they discuss the changing dynamics among the leveraged loan, CLO, private credit, and high-yield bond markets. Register here.
 
 
In the News  

Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • Why VC investors have largely remained on the sidelines this year. [Inc.]

  • Strengthened public markets "should inspire more PE-backed companies, particularly those in maturing funds, to pursue a public listing." [Bloomberg]

  • Corporate and VC dollars are flowing to generative AI. The underlying technologies being funded often aren't the flashiest. [Wired]

  • The essence of VC's main problem right now: "This growing AUM that's unable to be exited." [WSJ Pro]

  • Funding to restaurant tech has decreased significantly, with third-party restaurant delivery especially hard hit. [Fortune]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
 
ICYMI  

More of our recent research (* - report preview):

Market updates
Thematic research
Industry & tech research
Credit research
Coming next week (subject to change)
  • US VC Valuations Report
  • Global Fund Performance Report
  • PitchBook Private Capital Indexes
  • Healthcare Services Report
  • Gaming Report*
 

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