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Thoughts on a Pretty Good NYT Poll

The latest New York Times/ Siena poll shows the President's campaign has some momentum.

Dan Pfeiffer

Apr 14

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NOTE: This post was written, and this poll was conducted before Iran launched an attack on Israel yesterday. At times like these, domestic political analysis can seem wholly unimportant, even if the election result will dramatically affect issues like how the U.S. responds to such aggression abroad.

In recent months, the release of a brand new New York Times/Siena poll kicked off a cycle of panic among Democrats. Last fall, this poll showed Donald Trump leading Biden significantly in the battleground states for the first time. In February, another New York Times/Siena poll led to calls for Biden to drop out because of concerns about his age. Yesterday, the folks at the self-proclaimed paper of record decided to drop another poll on us — potentially ruining another weekend for the poll junkies, but the latest New York Times/Siena poll is actually good news for President Biden.

While the President trailed Trump by five among registered voters in February, the race is now essentially tied, with Trump leading 46-45. This result validates a trend. Since Biden’s well-received State of the Union, several polls show him tied or with a slight lead.

A table titled “How Polls Have Changed Since the State of the Union Address,” listing poll results of 16 pollsters before and after the address, along with percentage-point change. On average, Trump led by 2 percentage points before the address and less than 1 after the address, giving Biden a 1.4-percentage-point average increase. — Via the New York Times

None of those polls, however, had the credibility of the New York Times/Siena poll, which is FiveThirtyEights highest rated pollster and carries the significance of being attached to the nation’s most important media organization. While I agree this NYT poll is probably the most credible of the media polls because of their track record and the transparency that Nate Cohn brings to his process, it’s probably given too much weight by people who work in media and politics. But since I wrote about the two less-than-awesome polls, I owe you a post on a positive New York Times poll too.

The Biden campaign and Democrats across the spectrum are breathing a sigh of relief this morning as we avoided another wave of panic and intra-party recriminations. It is reassuring to know that the President’s State of the Union, his new campaign ad blitz, and recent aggressive messaging on topics like climate change, the economy, gun violence, and student debt have had an impact. This poll provest the Biden campaign plan is working. They are on the right track, but the poll also shows that more work needs to be done.

Here’s why this race is now essentially tied:...