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My Latest Take on Where Things Are (Video), Hopium Year 2, With Dems Today

Come Watch With Democrats, Things Get Better Today at 1pm ET

Simon Rosenberg

Apr 11

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Happy Thursday all. Got a few things for you today:

My Latest Take On Where Things Are - Last night Hopium paid subscribers gathered for our monthly meeting. A recording of my overview of where things are and why I am optimistic about winning this November is above. It includes a robust question and answer period, and a closing call to action. I hope you will watch. It was a fun and lively event.

My basic assessment of the 2024 election remains the same:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a strong case for re-election.
The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising lots of money and winning elections again and again all across the country.
And the Republicans have Trump - the ugliest political thing any of us have ever seen, his party an unprecedented political dumpster fire.

As I’ve been writing the election has begun to play out as many of us thought it would - once it was clear that the election was Trump vs. Biden, and the Biden campaign truly turned, Biden’s numbers would improve. And they have. With new Ipsos/Reuters and RMG national polls showing Biden leads, there now have been 21 polls taken in recent weeks showing Biden ahead, more than that have shown Trump ahead. Biden leads in the Economist poll tracker. Prediction and betting markets have Biden leading now, a big change from the past few months. While we don’t have that much polling in the battleground states, so less reliable to data to go on, there are polls now with Biden ahead in MI, PA, WI. A new Quinnipiac poll in NC has Josh Stein ahead 52-44, and Biden only down 2, within margin of error (go Anderson Clayton!!!!). The Congressional Generic has improved for Democrats. Our Senate polling across the battleground remains encouraging. It’s a close, competitive election that is becoming bluer.

As we discussed on Tuesday the media narrative about the election has begun to change, and we are seeing much more open discussion about Biden’s strong run in the polls. This has been driven to some degree by my recent NYT interview and slew of TV appearances, but however we got here it’s good news. Here’s Morning Joe today:

This is from an influential national newsletter, Political Wire:

Trump Is No Longer Ahead in the National Polls
April 10, 2024 at 10:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 179 Comments
We’ve seen a clear shift towards Joe Biden in the national polls over the last few weeks.
Donald Trump has led the race consistently in hypothetical match ups since late last summer, but the momentum has changed markedly over the last couple of weeks.
Here’s The Economist’s polling average:

And as Simon Rosenberg notes, of the seven polls over the last two weeks showing Trump leads, four are aligned with Republican politics — the Daily Mail, Echelon, Fox News and Trafalgar. In the 2022 midterms, these polls repeatedly forecast a red wave that never materialized.
Of course, the presidential race won’t be won nationally. It’s the six or seven key swing states that will decide the next president in the Electoral College. And the polling in these states is still infrequent.
However, it’s time the media narrative shifts to reflect that Trump is no longer leads the presidential race nationally.

In last night’s talk I also offer some thoughts on third party candidates and the impact of Israel-Gaza on the election. Here’s the data I discussed about the priorities of 18-29 year olds, from yesterday’s Economist/YouGov poll:

Foreign policy and national security are the most important issue for 5% of 18-29 year olds in this credible poll, with inflation, jobs and the economy, abortion, health care, climate change and education coming in higher. The point I made last night is there just isn’t a lot of evidence Israel-Gaza is having a significant impact on Biden. Biden’s numbers are going up. His approval rating among Democrats is 80-17. The latest poll in Michigan has Biden up 3 points. And perhaps most importantly, there isn’t definitive data that the small number of people who have voted uncommitted in a handful of states voted that way because of Israel-Gaza. Maybe they did. We just don’t know.

It was never likely that given all the challenges in front of young people today that a distant war that has very little impact on their lives would be a voting issue for more than a very small number of young voters. And that is what this data shows, and it is what makes sense. Israel-Gaza may be important, but for the overwhelming majority of young people there are a lot of issues that just matter more.

While we still have a long way to go and a lot of work to do, in every way imaginable, I would much rather be us than them. I hope you enjoy last night’s discussion, and a big thank you to all the paid subscribers here at Hopium who provide the resources to keep this place chugging along each day. Proud of what we are building here, together, and proud to be in this fight with all of you!

Upcoming Events - Register Today! - Got another event today, and you can see our full event schedule here. If you want to join our paid subscriber events and aren’t yet a paid subscriber you can sign up here. Looking forward to seeing folks soon!

Thur, April 11th, 1pm ET - With Democrats, Things Get Better - updated and fresh - Register here
Tue, April 16th, 8pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register here
Thur, April 18th Evening - Simon speaks in person at the Maricopa Country Democratic Party 100th Anniversary Event (Phoenix) - Buy A Ticket Here
Sat, April 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at the Arlington (VA) Democrats Blue Victory Dinner - Buy A Ticket Here

Hopium Year 2 - Modest Hopium Price Increase on May 1^st – Subscribe Today, Save Money, Help Fund Hopium’s Growth and New Content – As our site has grown a great deal in recent months, and the election is upon us, I have to bring a bit money than we’re currently bringing in to manage our growth and produce more high quality content for you. So, starting on May 1^st, an annual Hopium paid subscription will increase from $45 to $50. It is my hope that this incentivizes some of our general subscribers to become paid subscribers for the rest of this critical election year, and help bring in the resources necessary to meet our goals.

My hope is that together we can bring in 1,500 to 2,000 new paid subscribers at the current rate by the end of the month.

A reminder that when you subscribe Substack grandfathers in your original subscription rate for all time. So if you subscribe at $45 today, the current annual rate, you will only pay $45 next year no matter what the price is then. So there is a significant advantage to subscribing now. It locks in the current $45 annual rate for as long as Hopium is doing it’s thing.

Additionally, as we are now a little more than a year old, some of our earliest paid subscribers have begun to go through the renewal process. Renewals are automatic at Substack. Your card on file just gets charged. If you have changed credit cards and need to update your account, or just want to check on your subscription status, click here and scroll down to “subscriptions.” It will tell you whether you are current and provide other information.

One of the other benefits of being a paid subscriber is our daily chat. It is realistically the only place I can engage all of you given how much we’ve grown. I can no longer answer individual emails to me, and please don’t send them. I love the chat for when people pose questions and I answer thousands of others can see them, and we also get to discuss the issues of the day - respectfully, thoughtfully, without dumping anger or frustration - together. It’s also been a great place for people to share ideas and learn from one another on how to be more effective at fighting for our beliefs and values.

The resources paid subscribers provide also allow almost of the content here on the site to remain free and widely available to the Democratic family. In this critical election year where so much is on the line I think that’s really important, and I’ve worked really hard to keep this site and its content easily accessible to all. Paid subscribers make that possible.

Finally, I was talking to Hopium member Lindsay Billingsley the other day and she asked about gift and group memberships. I realized that I have never really promoted these features here at Hopium. So, one way you can bring more folks into our community and generate a bit more revenue is by buying discounted group memberships or purchasing gift subscriptions for others. You can learn more about both by clicking here and reviewing the group and gift links at the top of the page.

I will be offering more thoughts about year 2 of Hopium Chronicles in the coming days. But just a big hearty thank you for being part of the early days of this plucky and proud community of patriots and information warriors. I am having a lot of fun working along side all of you, and I think we are making a real difference, every day.

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here are Hopium we channel all the worry we have about the election into purposeful action. Hopium is a hope with a plan. We don’t just hope we will win this November we do the work to make it so. Right now we are in the final push for three must-win projects - the Biden-Harris campaign, Anderson Clayton/NC Dems and Arizona’s Ruben Gallego. Learn more, donate and volunteer here. Thanks to all of you who’ve stepped up so far!