Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 535

NO. 535   FREE EDITION   TUE 9 APR 2024
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My Work

Who cares about tech regulation?

Tech regulation gets a lot of headlines, and seems like a big deal, but most people in tech don't seem to care much. It's boring, and years away, but more fundamentally, it really doesn't affect what people are working on. LINK

The problem of AI ethics, and laws about AI

Can you write laws, or lay down ethical principles, for a technology that will be used in entirely different ways, for different purposes, in different industries? What does that mean if it's changing entirely every 18 months? LINK

News

Google charging for AI?

Most people in tech weren't born the last time there was marginal cost for a user pressing 'OK' - you'd have to go back to mainframes in the 1970s. But LLMs, for the time being, are so expensive to run that you can't give uncapped usage and you can't really make it free. In the next few years this will probably change, as the chips pile up and the models get more efficient (really, as markets function), but for now, what do you do? The FT reports that Google is considering a paid tier of some kind. LINK

The week in AI

Amazon says it will spend $150bn on datacenter capex over the next 15 years to support generative AI (it doesn't split out AWS capex separately, but probably spent about $30bn last year, so this isn't necessarily a huge change). LINK

Apple's AI team published another very suggestive paper, this time about using on-device models to understand things like what's happening on the screen (what does the user mean when they say 'pick the third one'?). LINK

The US and UK made a joint agreement on testing AI safety. I have very little concern about AI safety, nor interest in trying to regulate for it, so I post this purely for the record. LINK

The NY Times will offer AI-powered audio versions of most of its articles. This is as notable as part of the NYT's multi-modal media strategy as it is for the AI aspect. LINK

Perplexity says it's considering ads. It's not yet clear how much an LLM can really replace web search's 'ten blue links' or whether it might still drive traffic, but if you ask a question with clear intent ('what credit card should I get?') that can be matched with an ad. LINK

Meta announced a policy on labelling content made with AI (but how can it know which is which?). LINK

Tesla follies

Tesla now says that its 'full self driving' (which cannot, however drive the car fully) is 'supervised full self-driving'. Elon Musk claimed 1bn miles driven with a cumulative chart that appears to show flattening growth, and also claimed that a 'robotaxi' will launch soon. He first claimed we would have full autonomy 'in two years' in 2015 - note also that the Roadster supercar was announced in 2017 and hasn't been seen since. The problem as ever: he says lots of stuff, much of which is a wild exaggeration or just not true… but then, there are the self-landing rockets and the electric car company. LINKCHART

Microsoft unbundles Teams

Back in July 2020, Slack complained to the EU that Microsoft was bundling Teams with Office, which should have been a pretty straight-forward competition question. It took the EU until July 2023 to open an investigation, and Microsoft agreed to unbundle in the EU in October: now Microsoft will do the same globally. I doubt many big companies will switch at this point: everyone has made the choice and these are sticky, commodity tools. But either way, this is too long to take action in a market that moves this fast. LINK

Tiktok isn't the only Chinese app(!)

This weekend four of the top five apps on iOS are Chinese. TikTok raises special issues in its ability to decide what news and media we see, but Bytedance also owns Gauth, a maths app that's number 5 in the education chart. This is the drawback to the US writing laws about individual apps rather than trying to identify structural problems and then trying to solve them (by writing an actual privacy law, say). LINK

Meanwhile, the US may be tightening scrutiny of the de minimis rule that means parcel shipments valued at under $800 don't pay import duties: at the moment this covers shipments from Shein or Temu suppliers in China that go directly to US consumers (there were 410m de minimis parcels in 2018 and 1bn in 2023). LINK

Trump Media

Truth Social, the Twitter clone part-owned by Donald Trump, went public last week. According to the associated SEC filings, it has pretty much no revenue, and it refused even to say how many users it has (almost none), or disclose any other operating metrics either. However, it currently has a notional market cap of about $5.5bn. This is a politics story, and perhaps a securities law story, not a technology story. LINKFILING

Amazon still needs barcodes

Amazon has been scaling back its 'just walk out' grocery checkout technology, which used cameras and AI to work out what you'd picked up. The Information reported that Amazon has 1,000 people in India doing data labelling and error-checking, but that the error-rates and hence level of back-stop manual review remain too high for the system to be practical. (Note: some people thought (or decided to think) that this means the whole thing was just a con to offshore checkout workers, which shows a basic confusion about how data-labelling works.) LINK

About

What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst. Mostly, that means trying to work out what questions to ask.

Ideas

Where does the training data come from? Reuters has a story on how companies are trying to buy it from everywhere, and the NY Times reports on companies wondering how far they can 'reinterpret' or 'clarify' terms-of-service. BUYINGBORROWING

Meanwhile, somewhat ironically, YouTube's CEO says that if OpenAI's Sora video model was trained on YouTube videos, that would break the ToS. LINK

Step one for AI, like any automation, is to cut costs, and every big company is trying that right now. Step two is more interesting, and more difficult to predict. LINK

New approaches to fine-tuning LLMs to reduce 'error rates'. LINK

You can now play with Suno, a startlingly impressive music generation model. LINK

Apparently there were internal fights at Tiktok around whether and what kind of ads to accept around the conflict in Gaza, with ads mentioning hostages being refused. LINK

A bitter post-mortem of Vice. LINK

Everyone does ads: now the giant US consumer bank Chase is joining the merchant media gold-rush, adding ads in the app that are targeted based on your spending. LINK

Outside interests

A lawsuit claims that American jails banned in-person visits in exchange for payments from prison video-call companies. LINK 1LINK 2

RIP Gaetano Pesce. LINKCHIAT/DAY

News from LA: someone broke into a cash storage facility and took as much as $30m without setting off any alarms. LINK

The FT reports that Jan Marselek, the COO of the collapsed German payment company Wirecard, is now accused of being a Russian intelligence asset who used its systems to fund assassinations. LINK

Monument Valley is ten years old, and has had 160m installs. If you haven't, you should. LINK

Data

Firstmark's generative AI landscape, mostly useful just to get a sense of how many companies are building things now. LINK

Comparing interaction patterns between social media systems over the past couple of decades: no matter what you build, people always behave in the same ways. LINK

TikTok put out a US economic impact report, as a fairly obvious piece of lobbying ('look how much we help small businesses! Please don't ban us!'). LINK

In a court filing, Meta revealed that Instagram had revenue of $11.3bn in 2018, $17.9bn in 2019, $20bn in 2020, $32.4 billion in 2021 (27% of Meta's business), and $16.5 billion in the first six months of 2022. Unsurprising. Remember when people said it was insane for Meta to pay $1bn? LINKFILING

Apple is the one really fighting, but Google has also now pointed out that some of the changes required by the DMA come with trade-offs, and may be good for some competitors but bad for others. Maybe, just maybe, policy is complicated. LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

Writing about writing 

I started my career in the Dotcom bubble, as an analyst covering mobile operators, and back then, they were dynamic, exciting, innovative, high-growth companies. They were going to give everyone on earth a mobile phone! That sounded crazy to a lot of people, and yet it really did happen - today something over 6bn people have a mobile phone. But once they did that, they became boring, ex-growth, low-margin utilities. They turned into water companies, and the important questions were somewhere else. 

Half a decade later, the same cycle played out with smartphones. The iPhone was amazing, but now everyone has a smartphone (over 5bn people today), and most of the obvious innovation has been done. I haven't updated my Apple spreadsheet for years, and the most striking thing about all the arguments around the DoJ and the EU's DMA is that these are all arguments from 10 or 15 years ago. 

In technology, the moment that you really understand something, perhaps, is the moment that you should be looking for something else. 

THIS IS A PREVIEW FROM THE PREMIUM EDITION - PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS GET THE COMPLETE COLUMN EVERY WEEK. YOU SHOULD UPGRADE.
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You're getting the Free edition. Subscribers to the Premium edition got this two days ago on Sunday evening, together with an exclusive column, complete access to the archive of over 500 issues, and more.
 

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