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If you want to support this work, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. The Smart Political Strategy Behind Biden's Big SpeechThe President gave a pugilistic speech and took direct aim at Trump
Last night was a very good night for Joe Biden. The President delivered a vigorous, pugilistic speech with the highest possible stakes for his presidency. He was strong and in command. Most importantly, he made his best case yet for reelection.  The President never mentioned Donald Trump’s name, but the speech was written — and delivered — with the disgraced former President in mind. He swung at Trump several times throughout the speech, hitting him for inviting Russia to invade a NATO country, for the Big Lie, demonizing immigrants, and more. This certainly didn’t escape Trump’s notice since he began the day with a bizarre rebuttal and then uncorked a series of unhinged “Truths.” The speech hit all the right notes. Biden touted his accomplishments, criticized Congressional Republicans for failing to pass bipartisan bills to secure our border and support Ukraine's border security, and called for laws to protect our freedoms by codifying Roe v. Wade and access to IVF. The press and partisans cheered his tone and delivery. Democrats were excited, and Republicans were mad, but Biden's energy on the dais is only part of the story. Unlike my Pod Save America co-hosts, I was never a speechwriter. I don’t watch these speeches regarding rhetoric, writing, and history. I take a much more pedantic — and hackier — approach. I watched to discover how Biden and his team saw the forthcoming campaign against Trump, their strategy, and whether they executed it. This was a very political speech, and that’s a good thing. The President sought out conflict with his opponent and his opponent’s party. Also good. Biden recognizes how to wage information warfare in 2024. Here’s what the President tried to accomplish politically and why it worked. 1. Reminding People Why They Voted for Joe BidenMuch of the conversation leading up to the speech surrounded age and whether Biden could pass some ethereal test and reverse voters’ concerns. The press and the Republicans would have jumped on the slightest misstatement, and there were no such moments. However, the President won the day just by showing up. Most Americans haven’t seen him speak since last year’s address. If they have seen any footage of him, it was most likely an out-of-context and unflattering clip on TikTok or Instagram. Because so few voters consume enough political content to see Biden doing the job every day, even an average performance would blow away the caricature of the President, and Biden far exceeded that. Reassuring Americans about his capacity to do the job in his eighties won’t be accomplished with one speech; it will be a process that plays out over the course of the campaign. The bigger strategic imperative last night was reintroducing America to Joe Biden. That sounds crazy because he is the President of the United States and you and I follow his every move. But over the last few years, most Americans tuned him out, and he lost control of his public image. When he ran for office, Biden was quite popular. In the New York Times/Siena poll, he had a 52-42 approval rating. Last month, in the same poll, it was 38-59.
Joe Biden won the White House because he was the ultimate contrast to Trump — a decent, experienced, empathetic man working to make your life better. Because of his Scranton roots, he understood the value of hard work and what it was like to try to make ends meet. That’s what this section was about:
And it’s why he ended the speech by retelling his life story.
Reminding people of that person is key to winning this election and the speech. And the best way to do this by contrasting himself with his narcissistic, chaotic opponent. 2. Joe Biden: The FighterThis speech was filled with populist rhetoric and policies — bragging about taking on the Big Drug companies and offering new proposals to XXXX. The White House signaled some of these policies in advance, and the political press characterized this as Biden moving Left to shore up his base. That’s simpleminded political analysis from people who don’t understand politics. Last night was the most populist speech the President has made since the 2020 campaign. The shift is not ideological but attitudinal. Biden is running to the Left, running hard against powerful interests. Biden isn’t trying to tack Left (not that there’s anything wrong with that). He wants to use some of the proceeds from raising corporate taxes to pay down the deficit. This is strategic. A recent Blueprint poll found that voters were almost as concerned about Biden increasing the deficit (63%) as they are about his age (69%). Voters don’t generally view policy as Right vs. Left. They look at politics through the prism of “us vs. them.” In other words, they want to know which candidate will fight for them. Biden is currently facing a deficit on that critical question. In the CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump has a 12-point advantage.
Unlike Trump, Biden took on Big Drug companies and will ask corporations and rich people to pay their fair share in taxes. That’s why Biden repeatedly said things like this:
And it worked. Navigator Research did dial tests during the speech with persuadable Arizona voters and found a huge increase in they thought Biden would stand up to corporations.
3. Fighting to Lower CostsThe President walked a fine line between touting his economic accomplishments, cheering on progress, and speaking to people's pain about high food and housing prices. For over two years, concerns about higher prices dominated the collective consciousness and were a drag on the President’s approval ratings. As shown by this poll from Echelon Insights, the cost of living is particularly salient for the persuadable voters who will decide the election:
During the speech, the President discussed “shrinkflation,” called out corporate price gouging, and announced new policies to address the high cost of housing. 4. The Freedom AgendaJoe Biden’s longest-serving political strategist is a man named Mike Donilon, who has been with the President since 1981. Unlike most political advisors (most end up hosting podcasts), Donilon rarely speaks to the press and never appears on TV. Therefore, the public rarely has any insight into how he views a campaign. However, he spoke to Evan Osnos for a recent New Yorker profile of Biden and said that the 2024 campaign should center on a “Freedom Agenda.” Long-time readers of this newsletter know that this is music to my ears. Like many others, I have long advocated for Democrats to frame our agenda around freedom. This is a great contrast with a GOP that wants to restrict access to abortion, IVF, contraception, books, and marriage equality. Donilon’s freedom agenda ran throughout this speech, especially in this passage:
Democrats are very excited by the President’s performance. According to Politico Playbook, the Biden campaign had the two best fundraising hours of the cycle during the speech. There is a long time between now and when people start voting in October. There is much work to do, but last night was a helluva start. Instead of relitigating the past, the President framed the election as a choice between two very different visions. You're currently a free subscriber to The Message Box. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
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Friday, March 8, 2024
The Smart Political Strategy Behind Biden's Big Speech
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