The Democratic Party Is Strong, Unified and Winning. Republicans Are Weak, Divided and LosingStudents for Biden-Harris Has Launched/We Gather Wednesday at 7pm EST
Happy Monday all. We had a good week last week. I’m feeling good about where we are. Let’s have another good week this week: The Biden Campaign Ramps Up - The general election is here now, and the Biden campaign is ramping up. The campaign’s first true general election ad is below. It is running widely throughout the 7 battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This morning the campaign made two big youth announcements:
Here’s a short message from VP Harris and Hopium friend Anderson Clayton announcing the launch of students for Biden-Harris:  Please share this link to Students for Biden-Harris through your networks. The campaign is working hard to grow this program - let’s help them by encouraging students we know to join, today. Great New Biden Ad, “For You” - The 1st Biden ad of the general election dropped this weekend and it is just great. Strong, warm, funny. A really strong start to the general. Do watch fellow info warriors and share this through your networks and organizations. We need as many people to see it as possible.  As I shared with you on Saturday, Joe Biden had his best week of polling last week in some time. He led in 4 new, credible national polls. All showed substantial movement towards him, and all of this was before his powerful State of the Union address:
The general election is here my friends. Make sure you sign up for the Biden-Harris campaign today. Give whatever you can - $5, $10 or more - to get going. As we discussed on Friday, Joe Biden has made it clear he is fighting for us. Now we need to go fight for him! It’s time now to go to work and win this thing, together. It was nice to see our enthusiasm for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris making the New York Times:
The Hopium post Adam Nagourney refers to was the most read post in all of our site’s history. As it should be! 51% and My Optimism About 2024 - When I went to work for Bill Clinton in early 1992 Democrats had lost 5 of the 6 preceding President elections, several by historically large margins. The one election we won in that period was 1976, right after Watergate, and Carter only received 50.1%. From 1968 to 1992 Democrats really struggled to be competitive at the Presidential level. Then Clinton ran in 1992 with an explicit mission to make Democrats competitive at the national level again. And in the 8 Presidential elections since 1992 on, we’ve won more votes in 7 of 8 of those elections. It is the best popular vote run by an American political party in American history. From 1948 all the way to 2004, 56 years and 14 Presidential elections, Democrats only broke 50.1% one time, in 1964, after Kennedy’s assassination. Truman and Clinton won with less than 50%, Kennedy won with 50.1%, Carter too. Which is why what’s happened in the four Presidential elections beginning with Obama’s 53% win in 2008 is so significant. In these four elections we’ve averaged 51% of the vote, Republicans 46%. We’ve received 51% or more of the vote in 3 of these elections. The last time we had a streak like this was during FDR’s Presidency in the 1930s and 1940s, 80-90 years ago. I share this because this data and math matters for how we should be approaching the 2024 election. The Democrats are in the midst of our best Presidential run since the 1940s, the Republicans their worst. Republicans have only broken 48% of the vote in a Presidential race one time since 1988 - Bush 2004. For Trump to win, or even be at 48% in polling, he will have to get to a place with voters that only a single Republican has reached in a national election going all the way back to 1988. A Republican will do this some day, but it very unlikely that the one who does it is Donald Trump.
Our ongoing success at the Presidential level has now been joined by our remarkable mid-term and off-year success since Dobbs in the spring of 2022. As I detail here, we just keep winning again and again, elections of all kinds, in all regions of the country. They keep struggling, and that struggle has shown up again in early 2024 as Trump keeps underperforming public polling, and the Republican Party itself is, as I like to say, broke and broken We’ve won more votes in 7 of 8 Presidential elections. We’ve averaged 51% in the last 4, they’ve averaged 46%. We’ve defied history and gained ground in 2022, 2023 and 2024, something a party in power rarely does. We keep winning, they keep struggling. Our party is unified, raising lots of money, and just blew it out in a GOP held House seat in NY-3, showing significant grassroots muscle. They are struggling to raise money, keep losing elections and are badly splintered. Yet the NYT poll from two weeks ago found this:
Friends, any poll which gives Republicans a Party Identification lead, or even a meaningful Trump lead, is defying 36 years of recent American political history. It could happen, but the mathematical possibility of it happening, and even Trump winning, is remote. Based on what we’ve seen in recent years in actual elections, Democrats can and should win this election by 3-4-5 points; and if we do everything right and work really hard, perhaps get to 55%, high single digits. As the red wave turned out to be the red mirage in 2022, the perception of Trump’s strength right now is the big political mirage of 2024. He is historically weak, not strong. His party is in the midst of the worst performance by an American political party in a very long time. The party itself is in turmoil, struggling to raise money, dozens of its leaders have indicted across the country for trying to over turn the 2020 election, Republican House members are fleeing and retiring at an incredible rate, and as in 2022, the MAGA primary winner is struggling to bring non-MAGA Republicans along. Trump is more dangerous and extreme than he was in 2020, an election he lost; he will be further weighed down by all his scandals from rape and fraud to serially betraying the country; his performance on the stump is far more erratic and disturbing, his famous impulsivity far more on display; and he is making lots and lots of traditional political mistakes - like coming out against the ACA, or blowing the border issue - that candidates who lose elections make.
For Republicans to break their current electoral losing streak, and this 51%-46% recent national trend, it would take something extraordinary. And Trump isn’t that, the opposite in fact; and Biden has been a good President, the country is clearly better off today. I don’t buy that inflation and people’s “lived experience” are weighing Biden down. As I show here by many measures Americans are really happy with their lives, their work and their finances, and if the economy was in fact a big problem for Democrats it would have showed up in all these elections since inflation spiked in early 2022 - which it hasn’t. We know from lots of public and private polling that when voters are informed about Biden’s achievements his numbers improve, sometimes dramatically. We also know from polling, and 2024 Republicans primary voting, that there are deep and broad reservations about Trump in the broad Republic coalition, and that it will be hard for him to forge a bigger coalition than he had in 2020. MAGA is in my mind a failed politics. It lost in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and will likely lose again in 2024. So, quite a rant Simon. Yep. I write all this because what I expect to happen this year, the likely scenerio, is that we win by 3-4-5 points, perhaps more. I wrote a memo a year ago when Hopium launched saying this cycle, due to their escalating extremism, was one of opportunity for us, where we could grow and expand, and take stuff away from them. And that’s what has happened - in Wisconsin, in Ohio, in Florida and Colorado, in Virginia and New Jersey, in state legislative races across the country, in ballot initiatives, in NY-3. We keep winning, they keep struggling. Our ongoing success is happening in part, as I told the Washington Post last week, because of all of you. Because of your work, your love of country, your grit and fight, your money and your postcards, texts, phone calls and doorknocking, we are building the most powerful political machine we’ve ever seen, pushing our performance to the upper end of what’s possible in election after election:
Here are the numbers the Suozzi campaign released - 2 million phone calls!!!!!!!!
What many of us have been saying is that our expectation is that once the general election really begins some of our wandering coalition will come home and Biden will open up a small but meaningful lead. As I wrote on Saturday, there is evidence that has begun to happen already, and certainly Biden’s great State of the Union is likely to accelerate that process. We then have the campaign to go get the rest, and hopefully get to 55. Friends, we have a long way to go in this election, but 8 months out, in every way imaginable, I would much rather be us than them. The Democratic Party is strong, unified, winning. The Republicans are weak, divided and losing.
Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here at Hopium we strive to channel all this worry and anxiety we have about our current moment into concrete action - do more, worry less - as we say here. Here are a few things you do today, right now: Donate to and join the Biden-Harris campaign - This is very important. The general election has begun and it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donate whatever amount you can - $5, $10 - just to get started. Our community has already raised over $150,000 for Biden Harris - thank you! Make an early investment in North Carolina - North Carolina is our most important 2024 expansion state. Please consider donating today. For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Democratic Party Chair. Our community has already raised $92,000 for this critical battleground - thank you all! Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona - Yesterday I endorsed Ruben Gallego in his race to become the next Senator in Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state - must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today. Please donate today, and I will be posting some volunteer opportunities in the coming days. We have already raised over $42,000 for Ruben - thank you all! Spread Hopium - Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. Our goal is to get to 50,000 subscribers by March 31st (we’re at 47,000 today!). With your help, we can hit our goal, grow our community, and bring the upbeat, data-filled analysis here to more and more people. You can also become a paid subscriber which helps us grow here.  Our Monthly Hopium Gathering Is Wednesday, Celebrating Hopium’s 1st Birthday With Gov. Gavin Newsom - Our monthly get together for the entire Hopium community is this Wednesday at 7pm EST. Register here. I will kick if off with 15-20 minutes of opening remarks and then take your questions. I’m excited to share that the inspiring North Carolina Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton will be joining us around 745pm to provide an update on her work to turn North Carolina blue this November. Our event will be recorded and shared here for those who can’t make it live. Given how much we’ve grown in recent months it’s possible this event fills up so register as soon as you can and make sure you log in Wednesday at 655pm to secure your spot. If you haven’t caught it yet hope you can watch my talk with Governor Gavin Newsom from Wednesday night. He came by to help us mark Hopium’s 1st birthday and offer his thoughts on the State of the Union and the 2024 election. After my talk with Gavin I spent 15 minutes giving my latest take on the election, and spelled out why I am optimistic about winning this November. It was a great event, lots of energy - a perfect weekend dose of Hopium for our community! I launched Hopium a year ago with this welcome post, and my get to 55 memo. I’m so proud of what we’ve done together, the community we’ve built. Here’s what I wrote last March:
I will be having more to say about year 2 of Hopium in the coming days, and in our broader Hopium-wide gathering on Wednesday. If you want to mark our anniversary by becoming a paid subscriber you can do so here. Your financial support allows me to do this work, our community to grow and keeps the Hopium flowing! Thank you to all of you who have been of this spirited experiment so far. We’ve done a lot of good together, but as all know our most important work lies ahead. Keep working hard all. I’m really proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon You're currently a free subscriber to Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
|
Monday, March 11, 2024
The Democratic Party Is Strong, Unified and Winning. Republicans Are Weak, Divided and Losing
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
-
On Monday, Leon County Circuit Judge Angela Dempsey rejected Bear Warriors United's request for a temporary injunction to halt the s...
-
Police say information from a Reddit tipster who had a strange encounter with another man on a sidewalk outside Brown University provi...
-
The Trump administration has launched a new federal initiative called the U.S. Tech Force, aimed at hiring about 1,000 engineers and t...
No comments:
Post a Comment