Saturday, June 1, 2024

PE's math doesn't add up

Also: Repricings hit record high for volume; Public PE firm fundraising being carried by private credit; Surveying 53 VCs on market sentiment and more
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June 1, 2024
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Credit boom: Repricing transactions in the leveraged loan market were on fire in May, hitting a record high for volume. Our US Credit Market Weekly Wrap has all our latest data and commentary. Read a free preview.

Healthcare buzz: GLP-1 weight loss drugs, value-based care, and women's health were key topics of discussion at the MedCity INVEST conference. To read our key takeaways from the event, download our recap note.

Calling all LPs: Visit us at the ILPA Members' Conference in Chicago (June 4-6), where our lead quantitative and funds research analyst Zane Carmean will participate in a discussion on continuation funds. Register here.
 
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Conditions have improved, so why is PE still waiting?
In many ways, the current macro environment should be quite supportive of PE.

Real economic growth has continued to be robust while input prices have moderated, which has created a positive backdrop for portfolio companies' topline growth and profit margins.

Labor market turnover and wage growth have slowed without a pickup in layoffs, and leveraged finance investors are offering the most favorable lending terms with respect to credit spreads in the post-GFC period.

Yet, the figurative dam holding back pent-up PE buyout deal and exit activity has not broken despite many in the industry trying to speak it into existence. The continued lack of activity is putting many components of the traditional PE buyout investment cycle under pressure.

Buyout investors are finding it difficult to put capital to work and it is hard to point to anything other than interest rates as the main culprit.

The Fed has held interest rates above 5% for nearly a year and does not appear to be in any hurry to lower them. Not even a more favorable lending environment, especially in the syndicated loan market, has been able to spark dealmaking.

The recent surge in refinancing and dividend recap activity, while issuance for new financings has remained sluggish, suggests there is weak demand for new platform deals.
 
Exits are falling and holding periods are growing.

The more pressing concern for investors, however, is that the drought in exit activity has now extended into its third year. This has created a pileup of portfolio companies that have been held for longer than normal in funds that are older than seven years.

Buyout funds that were launched more than seven years ago now hold an impressive $760 billion in NAV that will need to find an exit route soon. Based on a bottom-up fund analysis, we estimated that these older funds will require more than $240 billion in liquidity in just 2024 alone, almost twice the total trailing one-year exit value.

While many have pointed to the growing secondaries market as a reason not to be concerned about the looming liquidity need, our analysis shows that this is potentially misguided. The secondaries market will be able to provide a valuable pool of alternative liquidity, but we estimated the capital available for GP-led buyout secondaries is only about $60 billion.

On a standalone basis, this will only cover about 25% of the estimated liquidity needs from older funds. At least a partial recovery in primary exit activity will be needed to satisfy the total liquidity demand at current valuations.

For additional details and supporting data on these topics and more, please download the free report:

Quantitative Perspectives: Under Pressure
 
Thanks,

Andrew Akers, CFA
Senior Quantitative Research Analyst
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Market Updates  
 
During Q1, fundraising for the largest publicly traded PE firms was driven by private credit—with 70% of inflows going to the strategy.

Private wealth and insurance remain major fundraising channels, according to our new US Public PE and GP Deal Roundup, after accounting for an estimated 48% of credit fundraising in 2023.

The report also shows how a weak exit environment has impacted realizations in buyouts and other PE strategies:
read the free report
 
 
Thematic Research  

H1 2024 VC Tech Survey

Overall, VCs are more optimistic about fundraising and the IPO market than they were a year ago.

We asked 53 investors dozens of questions on the state of the venture market, sectors and regions of interest, valuation expectations, and much more.
 

How are fundraising plans changing? Which industries and tech sectors are under the most pressure?

See the results from our survey:
read the free research
 

EV Charging Segmentation

Electric vehicle adoption faces a chicken-and-egg problem.

Prospective drivers are deterred by range anxiety, leading to a lack of investment in EV charging infrastructure.
 
See more of the market map in the full research.

Our new research provides a detailed look at the EV charging space—which is not monolithic—and its distinct segments and opportunities.

It also provides an overview of what other countries like Norway are doing to build out charging infrastructure and further supercharge adoption:
read the free research
 
 
Industry & Tech Research  
 
Technologies that enable doctors to monitor patients' health between office visits promise to improve outcomes, particularly for those with chronic conditions.

This fragmented segment is ripe for consolidation, with opportunities for investors to create scale and improve efficiency, according to our latest Healthcare IT Report.

But there are hurdles, including buy-in from doctors, who struggle to integrate longitudinal care into their workflows:
read a free preview
 
 
Medtech VC investment rebounded significantly to $3.3 billion in the first quarter as investors piled into high-quality companies despite historically low deal volume.

Public medtech valuations have stabilized, and there are pockets of rising valuations in the medical devices, consumer health, and life sciences sectors.

Our Medtech Report also covers emerging opportunities in cardiac arrest prevention and treatment as well as whole-body scans:
read a free preview
 
 
In the News  

Our insights and data featured in the press: If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
 
ICYMI  

More of our recent research (* - report preview):

Market updates
Thematic research
Industry & tech research
Credit research
Coming next week (subject to change)
  • Australia & New Zealand Private Capital Breakdown
  • Global Markets Snapshot: May
  • France Snapshot
  • Biopharma Report*
  • Emerging Tech Indicator
  • Emerging Space Brief: High-Performance Computing
  • Software is transforming the automotive industry
 

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Morning Brew

Babbel

Good morning. Today is a bittersweet day at the Brew, because we are saying goodbye to the one, the only: Mary Tobler.

For the past three years, Mary has created the delightful, clever puzzles you see at the bottom of this newsletter, from Mini Crosswords to Word Searches. She's one of the best in the biz, and we're sad to see her go—but excited about her opportunity in a new role.

As her grand finale and a way of saying thank you to all the Brew readers who played her puzzles, Mary has created one of her famous Mega Crosswords. Be sure to check it out below.

—Molly Liebergall, Cassandra Cassidy, Matty Merritt, Abby Rubenstein, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

16,735.02

S&P

5,277.51

Dow

38,686.32

10-Year

4.514%

Bitcoin

$67,535.62

Gap

$28.96

Data is provided by

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 6:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks were mixed yesterday, with the Dow having its strongest day this year. Some AI-related companies, including Dell, faltered, and new inflation data came in right about as expected. Stocks closed out a strong month: The S&P 500 had its best May since 2020 and the Dow its best since 2021.
  • Stock spotlight: Gap, a company that once convinced everyone khakis were cool using swing music, leaped up as investors digested its stellar first-quarter results—including comparable store sales growth at all four of its brands (Gap, Old Navy, Athleta, and Banana Republic) for the first time in a decade. Its new CEO's efforts to reestablish relevance are paying off.
 

RETAIL

Groceries are gonna have a hot discount summer

Grocery items with discount stickers Anna Kim

You know how it feels impossible to leave your house without spending at least $40? Well, after more than three years of rising inflation that's made everything from gas to eggs hurt your wallet, this week Walgreens became the latest major retail chain to join the horde of stores trimming prices to lure back cash-strapped customers.

But…"We're not going to see the return of 2019 pricing," GlobalData's managing director of retail, Neil Saunders, told Vox. The average price of groceries jumped 25% over the past four years (outpacing regular inflation), so while some brands, like Amazon Fresh, say they plan to temporarily mark down items by as much as 30%, most products aren't getting heavy discounts.

  • Walgreens, which has been lowering prices since October, announced plans on Wednesday to discount 1,300 more seasonal, food, health and wellness, and personal care items.
  • Target cut prices on 1,500 products this month—including store brands (Good & Gather unsalted butter is down to $3.79 from $3.99) and name brands like Clorox, Huggies, Pepperidge Farm, and Aveeno—and said it plans to mark down 3,500 more goods this summer.
  • Walmart said this month that rollbacks (Wal-speak for temporary discounts) were up 45% this April compared to 2023, and that price reductions on 7,000 items helped the big-box chain increase its sales last quarter.
  • Aldi is dangling discounted BBQ vibes like a sirloin steak for $6.99 instead of $8.49—but only for the summer.

From their POV: Every retailer wants to be seen as the one that finally lowered prices, and media buzz (like this story!) helps erect that image. Plus, companies that don't lower prices now risk losing customers to the cheaper lemonade stand, which also makes this a prime time for brands to push discounts on their larger-margined, store-brand labels.—ML

   

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Billionaire Bill Ackman Sylvain Gaboury / Getty Images

Hedge funder Bill Ackman wants to take his firm public. For now, Ackman, a billionaire and frequent main character on X, is selling a 10% stake in Pershing Square in a private funding round that values it at $10.5 billion, multiple news outlets reported. But in the future, possibly in 2025 or 2026, he's reportedly looking to take the unusual step of an IPO for his investment firm. Part of the firm is already listed on stock exchanges in Europe, but not in the US. Though Ackman grew to prominence as an activist investor and short seller, his more recent investments have been mellower, unlike his popular social media presence.

Trump's campaign made bank off his felony conviction. As the guilty verdict in the case accusing Donald Trump of covering up hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels came rolling in, so did the political donations—his campaign said it pulled in a record $34.8 million from small-dollar donors in the hours after the news broke Thursday. Trump, who was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records by a New York jury but maintains his innocence, vowed to appeal in a heated press conference yesterday. President Joe Biden, Trump's 2024 election opponent, called Trump's unaccepting response to the verdict "reckless" and "irresponsible."

Biden throws his weight behind new Israeli cease-fire plan. Yesterday, President Biden laid out the terms of Israel's proposed deal, saying it could end the eight-month war in Gaza. The three-phase deal begins with a six-week cease-fire, Israel's withdrawal from populated areas of Gaza, and Hamas's release of some hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. He urged Hamas to take the deal and Israel to stand by it, saying, "It's time for this war to end, for the day after to begin." Hamas released a statement saying it "looked positively" on some of the key elements Biden mentioned. Biden also said Hamas was no longer capable of carrying out another attack on the scale of the Oct. 7 assault that led to the war.

ENERGY

Saudi Aramco readies for mega share sale

A worker stands at a pipeline at the Saudi Aramco oil field facilities Reza / Getty Images

Saudi Arabia is learning this lesson the hard way: Billion-dollar futuristic "giga-projects" in the desert aren't going to pay for themselves.

That could help explain why the nation's state-controlled energy giant is poised to sell off a 0.7% stake. Aramco will start taking orders on Sunday for over 1.5 billion shares, with the potential to fetch anywhere between $11 billion and $13 billion.

Under pressure: The sale comes as Saudi Arabia is working through an identity crisis. The oil-rich nation wants to diversify its economy beyond environmentally questionable energy through Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ambitious Vision 2030 plan.

  • Foreign investors have been wary of putting money into the plan's flashy, futuristic projects. It's not without reason: NEOM, a planned high-tech city in the desert, recently reported it was scaling back its development.
  • So, the nation's sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), needs to bulk up if it is going to pull off MBS's plans. Experts believe the PIF will likely receive what Aramco raises from the share sale.

As Jim Nantz would say…it's shaping up to be a heck of a Sunday. The sale will begin as OPEC+ meets to decide oil output for the rest of the year.—CC

   

TOGETHER WITH THE POINTS GUY

The Points Guy

Protect your points. Have you heard about the Credit Card Competition Act? If passed, this congressional bill could cut credit card cash-back and travel rewards programs. That could make travel more expensive and less accessible for American consumers like you. Wanna take action? Start here.

PHARMA

The FDA side-eyes ecstasy trial data

This image made with the Iseult Magneton 11.7 T MRI shows a brain during a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) exam simulation at the Neurospin facilities in the Paris-Saclay Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission. Alain Jocard/Getty Images

An initial review from Food and Drug Administration regulators released yesterday about MDMA's use to treat PTSD is filled with questions ahead of the agency's pivotal meeting with outside drug experts on Tuesday.

Lykos Therapeutics tested 195 adults with moderate-to-severe PTSD and claimed that those who received MDMA and talk therapy were more likely to be in remission at the end of the trial than those who didn't. While the FDA agreed that the drugmaker's data showed the mind-altering drug could be used to meaningfully treat PTSD, the agency also raised some red flags:

  • The agency said Lykos's data was "challenging to interpret."
  • Because the drug is known for its psychedelic effects, the placebo was pretty easily recognized by the control group, the FDA said, which potentially impacts results.
  • The agency also doesn't know how long a patient would need to undergo treatment, considering that 25% of the participants dropped out before the end of a follow-up study.

More than a party drug: If approved, MDMA would become the first psychedelic-based treatment in the US. The FDA is expected to decide by August 11 with the help of the recommendations of outside experts.

Even if it's approved, concerns will remain, including the potential for dangerous side effects, the drug's accessibility, and the patchwork of state regulations it would need to overcome.—MM

   

STAT

Prime number

A platinum AmEx card with Gen Z as the cardholder Alex Castro

Things Gen Z loves: self-care, crew socks…and high-end AmEx plastic. Seems the hottest thing among young people is a 174-year-old financial firm. According to the Wall Street Journal, 75% of American Express's new consumer premium Gold and Platinum card accounts last year came from Gen Z and millennials. And, interested in maximizing perks, they're not starting with no-fee cards but going straight for options like the $695-per-year Platinum. Appealing to the young is helping the company thrive: AmEx stock is up more than 25% this year.

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • Moderna got FDA approval for its RSV vaccine for people aged 60+, giving the Covid jab-maker a second product to sell in the US market.
  • The Texas Supreme Court upheld the state's strict abortion ban, rejecting a challenge from women with severe pregnancy complications who argued its health exceptions are too narrow.
  • Sen. Joe Manchin, formerly a Democrat from West Virginia, said he registered as an independent. Though he's said he won't run for reelection, the move raised questions about his future ambitions.
  • Proxy advisor firm ISS urged Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package, days after fellow advisor Glass Lewis did the same.
  • Costco is not planning to raise the price of its $1.50 hot dog, the retailer's CFO said when discussing its quarterly earnings.
  • Michelle Obama's mother, Marian Robinson, has died at age 86.
  • Madonna was sued by a fan who claimed the pop star's LA concert included "pornography without warning."

RECS

Saturday To-Do List graphic

How to win book awards: Write a longer novel.

Watch: Why American cheese makes the best mac and cheese.

Play: This game has you guess the hidden Wikipedia entry by uncovering one word at a time.

See the parade of planets: Here's how to view the rare alignment of six celestial bodies on Monday night.

Plan + protect: Financial conversations today can help you feel more confident about tomorrow. MassMutual can help you make a holistic plan to grow and protect your wealth.*

*A message from our sponsor.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Crossword: Mary went all-out for her final Brew Mega Crossword. Play it here.

Open House

Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section that buys property based on its significance to iconic American lyricists. We'll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price.

Jessica Chastain NYC 4th-floor apartment for sale in Osborne building.Evan Joseph/Sotheby's International Realty

Today's home in NYC's Osborne Apartments was listed by actress Jessica Chastain, but its claim to fame (aside from its numerous hype-ups from Architectural Digest) is that its previous tenants were Adam Guettel, Bobby Short, and Leonard Bernstein (not all at once). Amenities include:

  • 4 beds, 3.5 baths
  • Lobby with Tiffany glass
  • Mirror closet doors to swear you saw Bernstein's ghost in as you get ready for bed

How much for the musically blessed apartment?

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ANSWER

$7.5 million

Word of the Day

Today's Word of the Day is: celestial, meaning "of or relating to the sky or visible heavens." Thanks to Elizabeth from Minneapolis for the otherworldly suggestion. Submit another Word of the Day here.

         
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