In 2000, Blockbuster was given the opportunity to buy Netflix for $50 million. They declined. "Why would they do such a thing?" – literally everyone in the 21st century. Because instead of viewing the idea of mail-order movies as a threat, Blockbuster believed customers would keep renting VHS tapes and DVDs in store. That mistaken belief cost Blockbuster their company. Keep reading to see how you can avoid the same fate. 📀
Read time: 3.2 minutes ⚡
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Imagine this… You're scrolling through the News app on your phone when you see a headline that sticks out like a sore thumb: "Cybersecurity Experts Warn: Data Breaches Hit Record High." You pause for a second. "That stuff happens to big companies, not regular people like me," you think before you keep scrolling. Technically, you're not wrong—your personal information has never been exposed in a data breach. A week later, you've all but forgotten that headline… Until you get an email from your bank with the subject line: Urgent: Suspicious Activity Detected. Your heart drops as you read through the email and nervously call the bank to speak with an associate in the fraud prevention department. Someone stole your credit card info and racked up $3,400 in charges across three states.
As you're placed on a brief hold with fraud prevention, you remember that news article… And the password you've been using for everything since 2015… And how you kept meaning to set up two-factor authentication but figured you'd get to it eventually… "How did I let this happen?" you wonder. It was always a real threat. But you never really believed it would affect you. Why did you ignore a clear warning until it was too late? In today's edition of Why We Buy 🧠 we'll explore Normalcy Bias—why we tend to minimize the likelihood of disasters and assume things will continue as they always have. Let's get into it.
🧠 The Psychology of Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias occurs even when warning signs are flashing right in front of us. We assume tomorrow will look like today in part because our brains rely on past patterns to predict the future. It's a mental shortcut that saves time and energy. But it can backfire when circumstances shift and warrant serious attention. In one study, researchers looked at disaster response behavior after the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Despite multiple warnings, many people delayed evacuation or didn't evacuate at all. Why? One of the most common reasons was that they believed their location was "safe enough to withstand disaster." Other scientists found that 16 tsunami warnings had occurred in the four years prior that resulted in inconsequential tsunamis—and dangerous complacency.
Even with warnings, we default to "everything will be fine" because that's what has always happened before. In marketing, this shows up when customers stick with an outdated solution (or no solution), ignore emerging problems, or assume they have plenty of time to act. Your job as a marketer? Disrupt their autopilot thinking and show them why they need to act now.
🤑 How To Apply This
Alright, so how can you apply this right now to sell more?
Insurance Make risky behaviors impossible to ignore Most drivers assume their habits behind the wheel are perfectly safe and normal. But Progressive's Snapshot device shatters that assumption with loud beeps whenever it detects hard braking or other risky driving behavior.
This triggers immediate psychological discomfort, suddenly forcing drivers to question behaviors they never thought twice about before. The result? Progressive has paid out over $1.2 billion in discounts for good driving behavior. But ~20% have seen rate increases, proving they were wrong about how "safe" they were driving all along.
Apps Turn distant threats into real-time risks When neighborhoods are historically quiet, residents are more likely to leave the front door unlocked while cooking dinner, keep windows cracked on summer nights, or let Amazon packages sit on the porch all afternoon. But Ring's Neighbors app shows why that's not a good idea. Local users share real-time crime clips and updates from their actual street and too-close-for-comfort areas.
Suddenly, security threats aren't abstract news stories about "other neighborhoods." They're happening on their street and captured by their neighbors' cameras (sometimes within hours of reading about the incidents). The result? Millions have downloaded the app and likely changed their everyday habits.
E-commerce Puncture complacency during vulnerable moments Lots of people shop online for years without a problem. So when fraud warnings pop up throughout the year, it's easy to dismiss them and think, "I've always been fine. Why would that change now?" Amazon disrupted that thinking by sending urgent fraud alerts to 300 million+ customers right before BFCM last year, warning that impersonation scams are ramping up.
By forcing threat awareness during the busiest shopping season of the year, Amazon moved fraud from an everyday "it won't happen to me" assumption into a top-of-mind concern for millions of shoppers during the holidays.
💥 The Short of It
Your customers are wired to believe tomorrow will look just like today. So they'll ignore warning signs and delay taking action—all because Normalcy Bias convinces them "everything's fine." Narrator: Everything was not fine. To break through, you've gotta make the underlying threat or problem real and worth noticing. Because the biggest competitor you're fighting isn't always another brand. It's the voice in your customer's head whispering, "It's all right—I'll deal with it later." Until next time, happy selling!
P.S. Wanna know how big-brained experts like Steve Jobs and Codie Sanchez built unignorable personal brands? Don't miss my (Katelyn here 👋) brand new newsletter: Unignorable. Subscribe for $0 now >
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