Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Benedict's Newsletter: No. 631

NO. 631   FREE EDITION   SUNDAY 22 FEB 2026
SPONSORED BY SLACK
Early movers in AI agents gain competitive advantages

New IDC reseach shows AI agents are fundamentally changing how work gets done—and early adopters are creating market advantages that make it harder for competitors to catch up. Companies integrating agents with collaboration systems see returns of 33 hours per person per week. The wait-and-see approach that worked before will be costly now.

Read the full report

My work

How will OpenAI compete?

OpenAI has some big questions. It doesn't have unique tech. It has a big user base, but with limited engagement and stickiness and no network effect. The incumbents have matched the tech and are leveraging their product and distribution. And a lot of the value and leverage will come from new experiences that haven't been invented yet, and it can't invent all of those itself. What's the plan? LINK

Another Podcast

What does AI do to software? What's a more interesting answer than 'no, this won't kill SaaS'? And what comes after the euphoria? LINK

AI eats the world

Twice a year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. The latest edition: 'AI eats the world'. LINK

News

AI's funding hiccups?

As rumoured (and denied) a few weeks ago, Nvidia's $100bn investment in OpenAI, announced last year, which never closed, has been replaced by a $30bn investment. Also this week, apparently OpenAI is telling investors it plans to spend $600bn on infrastructure by 2030, whereas in announcements late last year it said that it had $1.4tr of total capex commitments but gave no timeline. Of course, that's still $120bn a year, which puts it in the same range as the hyperscalers (although they're all at over $150bn this year and will probably rise). NVIDIA, CAPEX

Meanwhile, the Information says that Anthropic expects to pay its cloud providers $100bn for model training and $80bn for inference by 2029, plus revenue shares of roughly 10%. LINK

Google's AI use cases

Google seems to be accelerating its deployment of AI wrapped into tangible products for its advertisers' use cases. This week, Pomelli (announced last year) launched: upload a random product shot and it can generate all sorts of different marketing images to match your brand and strategy. They won't look like Irving Penn's work, but they'll be a lot quicker and cheaper: one whole strand of AI is expanding access. LINK

Meanwhile, the Lyria song-generator is on v3 and very convincing - again, think marketing assets (or birthday parties). LINK

The week in AI

The FT reports that Accenture has told senior staff that their use of internal AI tools will be measured and used to decide bonuses and promotions. This seems like a good sign that Accenture has not deployed many AI tools that are useful for senior execs (I wonder - are they allowed to use AI to write staff reviews?). LINK

Sequoia invested $1bn at a $4bn valuation in 'Ineffable Intelligence', a new 'build something about AI' startup from David Silver, who was an early employee at DeepMind. Notable partly because it's in the UK, not the Valley. LINK

And Fei-Fei Li, one of the OGs of machine learning, raised $1bn for her lab company. LINK

Apparently, OpenAI is working on several different devices with Jony Ive, including a $2-300 smart speaker/screen/camera home hub. LINK

US military versus Anthropic

Trump's defence secretary has threatened to list Anthropic as a 'supply chain risk', meaning no defence contractor could use it, after Anthropic apparently tried to set conditions on what its tech could be used for. This is one of those 'terrible person might perhaps have a point?' moments: no government can give a supplier a veto on policy, and no responsible military would put soldiers into the field using a system whose supplier might turn it off - as Ukraine has experienced with Starlink. LINK

The first big 'social addiction' lawsuit

Mark Zuckerberg testified in a California lawsuit that claims social media is addictive and harmful and companies including Meta and YouTube should be punished. Most social scientists will tell you that the evidence here is inconclusive at best, and one of the strongest indicators of a moral panic is when people say that they 'know' something 'must be true' without asking for real proof. In this environment, 'water is wet!' emails tend to get taken as proof of evil - hence people have got very excited by e-mails saying 'Meta targets teenagers' when, um, it was started by a teenager (Zuck was 19) for college kids. That said, I can't call the outcome of a jury trial, and more importantly, how long any verdict, appeals, US constitutional challenges, and products resets might take. Some people are very keen to call this the new tobacco, but it might be more accurate to think about car safety and seatbelts. LINK

No more 'Autopilot'

For at least a decade, people have criticised Tesla for calling its assistance cruise-control 'autopilot' and 'full self-driving' when it cannot drive the car by itself, and this lulls people into a false sense of security, taking their eyes off the road. Now, California has agreed, forcing Tesla to stop using the term. LINK

Trump tech

A Netflix board member criticised Donald Trump, and Donald Trump said that Netflix should fire them. Recall that the US government could try to block Netflix's takeover of Warner. One of Ronald Reagan's favourite jokes was that the Soviet Union and the USA both have freedom of speech: in America, anyone can say 'Reagan is an idiot!' and nothing will happen to them, and in the USSR it was exactly the same - anyone can say 'Reagan is an idiot!'… Clearly, Trump doesn't see things that way. Also, see the next item. LINK

Reuters reports that the US State Department plans a website to mirror content that is banned in Europe and elsewhere. This must have sounded like a great way to get points with Trump, except that the actual content being banned (sorry, 'censored') is child abuse material, deep-fake nudes, Holocaust denial and straightforward Nazis. This probably isn't a good look even for Trump, and anyway, why bother when you can just use Twitter? LINK

About

What matters in tech? What's going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?

I've spent 25 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. I'm now an independent analyst, and I speak and consult on strategy and technology for companies around the world.

Ideas

The latest Hollywood AI copyright freakout is the new Bytedance video generator, Seedance, which has produced some very viral clips (Tom Cruise fighting Brad Pitt, say). Toothpaste, meet tube. LINK

Meanwhile, Jia Zhangke, a leading Chinese filmmaker, used Seedance to create a short film musing on what such tools might mean for creativity. LINK

Time (ask your parents) has a long piece on an emerging political issue, especially in the USA: local resistance to data centre construction. This is partly about rising power bills, partly about water (both solvable), partly about changes to the neighbourhood (replacing farmland with warehouses) and partly more nebulous concerns about 'AI'. One to pay attention to. (Also, the photos are by the other Benedict Evans, who also took my profile picture for me.) LINK

The WSJ has a long feature on the (very early) emergence of marketplaces where publishing companies (especially those too small to broker their own deals) licence both their archives and fresh content (news) to AI labs as training data. Microsoft has one with People, AP, and Hearst. LINK

Adage on the first advertisers on ChatGPT - entirely experimental at this stage. LINK

An interesting Federal Reserve paper on Kalshi and other prediction markets as a source of macroeconomic data. LINK

Amazon is famous for basing meetings on six-page memos that everyone reads in silence at the beginning of the meeting. Bezos's argument was that this forced clear and comprehensive thinking around every aspect of the problem, so that you could start the discussion knowing the issues. Now people are using AI to write these, but worse, management is telling people to do that… and then using AI to summarise the memos. This was literally the joke, that half of AI would be turning three bullet points into an email and the other half would be summarising those emails into three bullets. Where does the thinking happen? LINK

Outside interests

Twenty-three vintage mechanical calculators. Everything you need for your lobby. LINK

Why are Chinese TVs cheap? This analysis argues it's mostly better integration, not 'China is cheap'. LINK

A memory from when TV was YouTube: in 1989, Roland Rivron did a late-night UK talk show where he and the guests stood in the Thames. Yes, actually IN the Thames, up to their chests in water. No, really. LINK

Hunter S. Thompson's 1973 red Chevrolet convertible is up for sale. Also included: two Jimmy Buffett cassette tapes and one Allman Brothers cassette tape, but no drugs. LINK

I forgot to link this last week: Ferrari hired Jonny Ive's LoveFrom consultancy to design the dashboard and interiors of its first EV. They have lots of interesting responses to the problems posted by EVs, especially for a sports car, when you don't have the roar of the engine, there's no gear-box, and any car can have super-fast acceleration. The graphic design does perhaps feel little more Apple than Italy, though? Also interesting: Ferrari decided to do the first press event without showing the actual car itself (presumably the design of the shell would have distracted attention from the real changes). LINK

Data

OpenAI says 100m of its 8-900m WAUs are in India. I'm surprised it isn't more. LINK

Matthew Balls' annual 'state of video games' presentation. Always useful. LINK

Anthropic released a new set of stats about agentic use. The chart everyone has picked up on is the one at the end, which says 50% of use is for software development. This is pretty self-selected, though: Anthropic has a relatively small user base heavily concentrated in software development. LINK

Walmart sold $6.4bn of ads last year, which was more than Snap ($5.9bn). LINK

Amazon revenue passed Walmart last year, which is symbolic but not much more, given they have different businesses in different places, and even more, because Amazon's GMV has been bigger than Walmart for years. LINK

Preview from the Premium edition

What does AI do to software? 

I wrote last week about euphoria, and euphoria is a characteristic of a bubble. But the one place that AI is really, really transformative and really, really working, bubble or no bubble, is in software development. In the last three years, we've already had multiple waves of dramatic acceleration, and the newest batch of agentic systems are clearly quite transformative. After that, I think everything is up in the air, but it's worth trying to break apart what that means. 

First, just by itself, this is a change in how quickly and easily you can make a piece of software that you might have thought of 10 years ago or 20 years ago. That means that features or projects that you might have delayed, or might have needed another team for, will happen a lot quicker with much smaller teams. That still needs a bunch of software engineers because they still need to check the work and they need to know what the thing is supposed to be doing. But the amount of work needed to get it done will look quite different. By default, this means far more software, and then the Jevons Paradox question kicks in: will we have more code with fewer engineers or more code with more engineers? Either way, a bunch of things that weren't automated before because you couldn't justify the investment in software will now get automated into dedicated tools. 

Second, very obviously, generative AI enables new capabilities and those will come to market as new features in existing tools, and as entirely new tools that try and unbundle those or build their own routes to market, just as we saw with machine learning, and indeed the entire SaaS industry. 

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