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Why the New NYT Poll is Devastating News for Trump - and Great News for Dems

One year in, Trump's coalition has collapsed

Dan Pfeiffer

Jan 22

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There has been a flood of polling over the last week as media organizations look to capture public opinion about Trump’s first year in office. Most polls are just background noise to the political conversation. For better or worse, the verdict doesn’t feel fully rendered until the New York Times/Siena poll comes out.

I’m part of the problem here because my mantra is to never take one poll too seriously. But an NYT poll is one of the rare times I’ll write a post about a single survey.

Their poll is generally viewed as the best because of its large sample size, statistical rigor, sophisticated methodology, and interesting questions. And it gets the most attention. Maybe that’s right. Maybe it’s wrong. But nothing influences political conventional wisdom like a brand-new New York Times/Siena poll.

It populates coverage. It drives conversation. And it’s likely to show up in your group chats. But you don’t have to take my word for it. Trump takes the poll so seriously that he plans to sue the Times over it.

The brand-new New York Times poll out today is notable because it paints a devastating portrait of Trump’s political standing—with real implications for the midterms and guidance for the Democratic strategy.

Here’s what you need to know:...