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Our Addled Leader Has Thrown The World Into A Grave Crisis, New Poll: Dems Up 8 In Generic Ballot, 3 Important "New Day" Speeches To Watch And Discuss

Economist Dr. Rob Shaprio joins us today live at 2pm EST. Paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm

Simon Rosenberg

Jan 21

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Morning all. In my terrific discussion with Glenn Kirschner yesterday about Trump’s escalating lawlessness Glenn kept to returning to the word “unsustainable” to describe our current moment. For our great country, and the world, it clearly is. What our addled, idiotic, and vainglorious leader is doing now is not wacky, boys being boys, or America Firsty it is INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS for the United States itself and the cause of freedom and democracy around the world. As Governor Newsom told the world yesterday in Davos Trump has become an out of control, unstable, unhinged/unmoored, global wrecking ball. And either our Congress starts to rein in him, or he is forced from office, or we have to expect other nations, the ones he is harming, will start attempting to do it for, and to, us.

One of the way the nations of the world can move against Trump and America is by dumping our Treasuries and equities. This process began yesterday when Denmark sold off and exited US Treasuries:

Here is how The Guardian reported on a speech European President Ursula van der Leyen gave earlier today:

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that “the future of Greenland is only for the Greenlanders to decide” as she warned that Europe needs to “transform the ways in which we think and act” to step up to challenges posed by the rapidly changing world order.
She said that Europe needed to realise “we now live in a world defined by raw power,” adding that “in this increasingly lawless world, Europe needs its own levers of power” and abandon its “traditional caution” to build on its economic might and become more independent.
Speaking at the European parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg, von der Leyen also repeated the key lines from her Davos speech yesterday, warning that the US threat of tariffs on EU partners over Greenland could send the relations into “a dangerous downward spiral” and “only embolden the very adversaries we are both so committed to keeping out of the strategic landscape.”
“Greenland is not just a territory in a key region of the world map, and the land rich in critical raw materials, a strategic outpost on emerging global sea routes. It’s all of these things, but above all, Greenland is home to a free and sovereign people. It is a nation with its sovereignty and its right to territorial integrity, and the future of Greenland is only for the Greenlanders to decide,” she said.
Von der Leyen also said “it is more important than ever that we keep focusing on Ukraine,” continuing the bloc’s support for the wartorn country.

The central lesson from WWII we are were all taught in school is that trade wars lead to shooting wars. Well, here we are, my fellow patriots.

Noted economist Rob Shapiro will be joining us today at 2pm EST to discuss the danger Trump is putting America in now, and for us to react to what will almost certainly be a shameful and reckless Trump speech today in Davos. Click here to join us at 2pm. We will release this conversation later this afternoon if you can’t make it live, and a reminder that I will also be getting together with paid subscribers tonight at 7pm.

It is critical that everyone reading this post call their Senators and Rep today to express their outrage at what Trump is doing to the country, and the world. Pick your issue from our working agenda below. BUT CALL. Members of Congress must feel our outrage today. We need them talking it about in the hallways. We need them to be saying “people are pissed, we need to do more.” MAKE YOUR CALLS EVERYONE.

I also want to say one last thing. What is happening here is not a “distraction” from the Epstein files or a way to change the conversation from his crappy economy or his assault on health care. These memes in our family have become corrosive and reckless, for they are encouraging us to look away or dismiss the incredible danger he is putting us all in. Here we believe that there are three legs to the narrative stool - affordability/tariffs, health care, and threats to democracy/corruption/No Kings - and this continued counsel to pivot back to “kitchen table” issues or Epstein feels, at this point, far more like sabotage than strategy.

For it is time now for our Democratic leaders - Govs, Congress, Big City Mayors - to come together and speak loudly with a unified voice against the threat Trump has become to freedom and democracy here and everywhere. For the future Trump is creating for us guarantees that America will be less prosperous, less secure, and less free, and that is why we need to keep fighting this ruinous path as hard as we can.

More Bad Polling For Trump - The Country Is Rejecting His Early 2026 Escalation

I wrote yesterday how polls released late last week were among the worst Trump had seen in his first year. There was a possibility that what I’ve been calling his early 2026 escalation - Minnesota, Venezuela, Greenland/Europe - has started to drive down his already terrible poll numbers even further.

Look at these polls we’ve seen in recent days. Profoundly ugly stuff:

37%-57% (-20) Economist/YouGov
40%-59% (-19) CNN
41%-59% (-18) CBS News
39%-57% (-18) Marist
41%-58% (-17) Ipsos/Reuters
40%-56% (-16) Civiqs

Here’s what they are seeing on the right and in the White House. Trump’s job approval on Real Clear Politics has gone from -8 to -13 in the last two weeks:

This morning Trump and the Rs got more bad polling news. Here’s the summary of a new Strength in Numbers poll from G. Elliott Morris:

New poll: Trump loses ground on immigration; Dems lead 2026 House vote by 8 points

Immigration approval declining: Trump’s approval on immigration has dropped to 44% approve / 53% disapprove (net -9), and his deportation policy is at 42% / 54% (net -12). Border security remains his only positive issue at 50% / 46% (net +4). Trump’s numbers on all three have declined since our last poll in October, 2025.
Presidential approval: 40% approve of Trump’s job performance; 58% disapprove (net -18). This is a new low in our tracking. Just 27% of political independents approve of the president’s job performance (63% disapprove).
Generic ballot: Democrats lead Republicans among registered voters 51% to 43%, with 6% of voters undecided.
Democrats trusted on top issues: On the issues Americans rank as most important — prices, health care, and the economy — Democrats hold the advantage over Republicans over which party is seen as “best.”
Venezuela: 45% oppose the military strike; 53% oppose the U.S. temporarily running the country
ACA subsidies: 64% want Congress to restore the expired health insurance subsidies. 57% blame Republicans in Congress or Donald Trump for the coverage gap (26% say Democrats).

Here’s his analysis of the data on immigration, deportations, and crime:

Donald Trump was elected in part on promises to crack down on illegal immigration, secure the border, and conduct mass deportations. But as his administration enters its second year, voters are souring on his handling of these signature issues.
In recent months, the administration’s aggressive deportation operations have generated significant news coverage, and our poll suggests voters are drawing distinctions between securing the border (which they still broadly support) and the methods being used to remove people already living in the country (which they do not)
Our January poll finds Trump’s approval on immigration at just 44% approve vs. 53% disapprove — a net rating of -9 points. On deportations specifically, the numbers are worse: 42% approve while 54% disapprove (net -12). The president has also lost ground on his handling of crime and public safety, dropping from -1 in October to -9 today.

What are seeing now in these current wave of polls is further erosion for Trump and the Rs across the board, on everything. Trump’s early 2026 escalation is being rejected by the public, and driving Trump and the Rs further and further away from the electorate. As we’ve discussed here, Republicans have already grown weary, very weary, of defending the indefensible. Trump’s early 2026 escalation is going to test his already weakening hold on Republicans in Congress who have been asked to accept far too much from him and his terrible regime……

Three Important “New Day” Speeches To Watch And Discuss Together

Sharing now three speeches from recent days I’d like us to watch and discuss together. The first is Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech from yesterday:

The next is Governor Mikie Sherrill’s Inaugural speech, also from yesterday:

Finally, here is Governor Abigail Spanberger’s Inaugural speech from Saturday:

Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Winning The Midterms - Support Our Candidates

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $81,000 raised, $250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10)
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $21,500 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!
Winning Ohio - $17,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $67k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper and a new, terrific one with NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $114k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps, Winning In Red States and Red Places (2026-2032)

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $279,000 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties

3 Campaigns Where We’ve Hit Our Goals, But Are Still Active - We have three campaigns where we’ve hit our goals but that folks can still participate in - Ken Martin’s New DNC, Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party of Minnesota (DFL).

Why We Must Invest Early, Now, And Not Wait - In three new essays (here, here, here) I discuss how one of the ways we win the 2026 midterms is by providing early support to our candidates and parties to allow them to staff up, be loud, define the terms of the debate now, before the inevitable onslaught on AI slop, Russian disinfo, and Trumpian lies funded through bribes and corruption wash across the land.

The midterms could be won or lost in these next few months - not in the fall of 2026 - and we need be fighting now with everything we got.

Winning The Big Arguments With Trump, Defend Our Democracy

We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:

Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his new threats to seize Greenland and his new, dangerous European tariffs;
Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean and the Pacific - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law, and the US must withdraw from Venezuela and cease other threats to violate the UN Charter and the sovereignty of other nations
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world. To put America on a sounder fiscal course due to the enormous deficits brought by Trump’s 2025 tax cuts we should reverse the cuts to the wealthy and corporations
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the dangerous occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented regime corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress end the rancid cover up of the Epstein crimes.
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA, Medicaid and our clean energy investments; support and co-sponsor the Stand Up For Science/Rep. Haley Stevens effort to remove Robert Kennedy from HHS.

2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - This July 4th America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.

One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Keep working hard everyone, and I remain so incredibly proud to be in this righteous fight with all of you - Simon

Business Blog

Wednesday, January 21, 2026