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A client called me last week completely paralyzed by a business decision. |
Should he buy a franchise? Start his own company? Stay in his current role? |
The stakes felt massive.
The variables felt endless.
Every path was filled with unknowns. |
So he did what most people do: He tried to evaluate everything simultaneously in one big decision: |
What should I do with my life? |
Which meant the problem was elevated so high the only way to solve it was a lucky guess. |
After coaching hundreds of leaders through complex decisions, here's what I've learned: |
You can't solve a synthetic problem, one that bundles together dozens of small problems. |
The winning path is breaking down the problem into a series of smaller, clearer ones. |
Here's how: |
Separate the Decision into Discrete Components |
Don't evaluate everything as one singular choice. |
My client was asking: "Should I buy this business?" But that question bundled together: |
Is the franchise model right for me? Are the territory constraints workable? Does the business model scale? Can I recruit the labor I need?
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Each of these is a separate question with different answers. Answer them independently, then see how they fit together. |
Understand the Physics of the Business |
Get to the fundamental unit economics. What's the nuclear building block? |
For my client, it was: One deck job takes X weeks, requires Y crew members, generates Z revenue. |
Once you know this, you can model everything else. |
How many jobs can one crew complete in a season? How many crews do you need to hit your revenue target? What's the maximum capacity given time and labor constraints?
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The math reveals what's actually possible versus what sounds good in theory. |
Identify Supply vs. Demand Constraints |
Is the bottleneck finding customers or fulfilling the work? |
This fundamentally changes your strategy. If you're demand-constrained, invest in marketing and sales. If you're supply-constrained, invest in operations and recruiting. |
My client assumed he'd struggle to find customers. The reality? He'd struggle to find crews to do the work. That completely changed which business model made sense. |
Model Conservative Scenarios First |
Use the realistically pessimistic numbers. |
Longer timelines. Shorter seasons. Higher costs.
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If the business works in the worst case, you have upside. If it only works in the best case, you're gambling. |
My client was using average job completion times. I pushed him to use the longest times. Upper 75% territory revenue. I pushed him to use the bottom 25%. |
When you model conservatively and it still works, you gain confidence. When it only works optimistically, you've found your answer. |
Question the Averages |
National or company-wide averages can hide critical differences. |
The franchise told my client their average location does $2.3 million. But that average included southern states with year-round building seasons and northern states with 8-month windows. |
His location would face 4 months of frozen ground. |
That's not an average business. That's a constrained one. |
Always ask: What's the average for businesses like mine with the constraints I have? |
Work Backward from Your Goal |
If you want $10 million in 5 years, what does that require? |
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Working backward reveals whether your goal is ambitious or impossible. And it shows you exactly what needs to be true for success. |
My client wanted to scale quickly. Working backward showed he'd need to buy multiple territories within 18 months. But the franchise had no right of first refusal on adjacent territories. Someone else could buy them first and block his expansion. |
That's a problem you want to discover in the analysis, not after you've invested. |
Identify the Real Constraints |
What are the actual limiting factors? |
Capital? Time windows? Labor availability? Your own capacity?
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These constraints determine what's possible. |
For my client, the constraint wasn't demand or capital. It was finding reliable crews during an 8-month building season. That became the variable everything else depended on. |
Test Your Assumptions with Simple Questions |
Simple questions reveal whether your model is built on reality or assumptions. |
How long does a $30,000 deck actually take to build? What's the average crew size for this type of work? Can you work year-round in this climate?
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My client was building a financial model without knowing these answers. Once we identified them, we knew exactly who to ask: the 2-3 franchisees who'd scale to build the size business he aspired in geographies with the same constraints. |
Find and Limit Downstream Risks |
What decisions force other decisions? |
Buying one franchise territory might limit your ability to expand if others buy surrounding areas. Choosing one business model might lock you out of adjacent opportunities. |
Identify these dependencies early. Then structure your decision to preserve optionality where it matters most. |
Know What You Actually Want |
The "best" business decision that makes you miserable for 5 years isn't actually best. |
My client kept analyzing revenue potential and scalability. I finally asked: |
What do you want your life to look like? What do your days look like when you're happiest? What do you want to make space for outside of work?
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He wanted to build something significant. He wanted leverage and scale, not just a job. |
That clarity eliminated half the options immediately. |
The Bottom Line |
Complex decisions feel overwhelming because we try to solve them all at once. |
The answer isn't more analysis.
It's better structure and smaller problems. |
Break the decision into components. |
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Most importantly, remember: You're not making one decision. |
You're making a series of smaller decisions that add up to the life you want. |
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What You Missed This Week |
Our Sunday AM posts: |
📌 8 Questions Every Manager Must Answer (Dave on LI)
📌 Write Performance Reviews that Win (Mar on LI)
📌 The Decision Maker's Playbook (Dave on X) |
And here are our most popular posts last week:
🔥 11 Questions That Could Change Your Career (Mar on LI)
🔥 How to Unlock Your Full Potential (Dave on LI)
🔥 Don't Confuse Motion with Momentum (Dave on X) |
Our goal is to build a community of 1 million thoughtful, curious leaders. |
You can help us by reposting anything that resonates with you. |
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Thank you for reading. Appreciate you! |
Dave |
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